United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2016

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2016
November 8, 2016
Turnout 68.98% Increase

 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316
Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
County results
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina was won by Republican nominee Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, with a 3.67% winning margin, as part of the 2016 general election. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[1][2]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57 percent to 34 percent among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont." [3]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 616,758 54.59%
Democratic Bernie Sanders 460,434 40.75%
Democratic No Preference 37,200 3.29%
Democratic Others (total) 15,375 1.37%
Total votes 1,129,767 100.00%

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[1][2][5]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41 percent to 27 percent among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14 and 11 percent, respectively." [3]

Results

North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 462,413 40.23% 29 0 29
Ted Cruz 422,621 36.76% 27 0 27
John Kasich 145,659 12.67% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 88,907 7.73% 6 0 6
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 11,019 0.96% 1 0 1
No Preference 6,081 0.53% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,893 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 3,071 0.27% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,753 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,256 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 929 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 663 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 265 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,149,530 100.00% 72 0 72
Source: The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capitol of Raleigh are located.[6]

Libertarian primary

North Carolina Libertarian primary, 2016
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)

 
Candidate Gary Johnson No Preference
Home state New Mexico n/a
Popular vote 2,414 2,067
Percentage 41.48% 35.52%
 
Candidate John Hale Joy Waymire
Home state Kentucky California
Popular vote 329 268
Percentage 5.65% 4.61%
North Carolina results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No Preference
  Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[1][2]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson, Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 2,414 41.48%
No Preference 2,067 35.52%
John David Hale 329 5.65%
Joy Waymire 268 4.61%
Austin Petersen 189 3.25%
Darryl Perry 118 2.03%
Steve Kerbel 109 1.87%
Derrick Michael Reid 74 1.27%
Cecil Ince 72 1%
Jack Robinson, Jr. 70 1.20%
Marc Allan Feldman 66 1.13%
Rhett Smith 43 0.74%
Total 5,739 100%

General election

Polling

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[8][9]

Results

Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%
Gary Johnson 130,126 2.74%
Write-in 47,386 1.00%
Jill Stein (write-in) 12,105 0.26%
Total 4,741,564 100.00%
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections The Green Papers

By county

County[10] Clinton percentage Clinton Votes Trump percentage Trump Votes Johnson percentage Johnson Votes Write-in percentage Write-in Votes Stein percentage Stein Votes Totals
Alamance41.92%29,81854.55%38,8022.52%1,7950.70%4960.30%21671,127
Alexander20.64%3,75676.01%13,8332.39%4350.83%1510.13%2318,198
Alleghany24.57%1,30671.76%3,8142.43%1291.24%660.00%05,315
Anson55.56%5,85942.73%4,5061.22%1290.46%480.03%310,545
Ashe26.07%3,50070.12%9,4132.47%3321.34%1800.00%013,425
Avery20.48%1,68976.35%6,2982.01%1660.88%730.28%238,249
Beaufort36.61%8,76460.75%14,5431.78%4260.75%1800.10%2523,936
Bertie61.82%5,77836.97%3,4560.75%700.43%400.03%39,347
Bladen44.38%7,02153.80%8,5111.33%2110.48%760.00%015,819
Brunswick34.06%23,28262.50%42,7172.51%1,7170.78%5360.14%9668,348
Buncombe54.30%75,42140.10%55,6943.08%4,2841.41%1,9581.10%1,534138,891
Burke28.91%11,25167.42%26,2382.54%9880.83%3240.31%11938,920
Cabarrus38.08%35,51057.69%53,7892.99%2,7841.04%9720.20%19093,245
Caldwell23.20%8,42573.30%26,6212.34%8490.83%3020.34%12336,320
Camden25.45%1,27470.83%3,5462.98%1490.58%290.16%85,006
Carteret26.31%9,93970.32%26,5692.42%9130.74%2780.22%8237,781
Caswell43.28%4,79254.44%6,0271.93%2140.26%290.08%911,071
Catawba29.32%21,21666.79%48,3242.73%1,9730.95%6850.21%15372,351
Chatham52.86%21,06542.92%17,1052.84%1,1301.03%4120.34%13739,849
Cherokee20.17%2,86076.47%10,8442.44%3460.69%980.23%3314,181
Chowan41.39%2,99255.53%4,0142.24%1620.68%490.15%117,228
Clay22.75%1,36773.83%4,4372.38%1430.90%540.15%96,010
Cleveland33.50%14,96163.75%28,4741.90%8500.68%3050.17%7544,665
Columbus38.18%9,05360.15%14,2641.29%3050.38%910.00%023,713
Craven37.52%17,62958.99%27,7222.57%1,2100.81%3800.11%5046,991
Cumberland56.16%71,60540.21%51,2652.65%3,3730.85%1,0840.14%179127,506
Currituck22.99%2,91372.33%9,1633.80%4820.66%840.21%2712,669
Dare36.81%7,32358.43%11,6263.47%6901.03%2050.26%5219,896
Davidson24.19%18,10272.56%54,3042.48%1,8580.65%4840.12%8774,835
Davie24.22%5,27071.71%15,6022.90%6310.95%2060.22%4721,756
Duplin39.72%8,28358.58%12,2171.25%2600.41%850.05%1120,845
Durham77.67%121,16618.15%28,3142.56%3,9951.28%1,9960.34%535156,006
Edgecombe65.19%16,22433.20%8,2611.14%2840.43%1060.04%1124,886
Forsyth52.98%94,18542.61%75,7513.01%5,3581.40%2,4920.00%0177,786
Franklin42.39%12,87453.90%16,3682.56%7770.97%2960.17%5330,368
Gaston32.33%31,17764.09%61,7982.54%2,4450.91%8730.14%13896,431
Gates44.23%2,38553.30%2,8742.00%1080.46%250.00%05,392
Graham18.39%73978.82%3,1671.77%711.02%410.00%04,018
Granville47.19%12,90949.69%13,5912.18%5960.79%2150.15%4227,353
Greene44.53%3,60554.03%4,3741.05%850.33%270.05%48,095
Guilford57.98%149,24838.10%98,0622.62%6,7541.04%2,6670.26%674257,405
Halifax62.57%15,74835.88%9,0311.15%2900.39%980.00%025,167
Harnett36.33%16,73759.95%27,6142.72%1,2520.84%3890.16%7346,065
Haywood34.08%10,47361.60%18,9292.95%9050.99%3030.38%11730,727
Henderson34.08%19,82761.55%35,8072.80%1,6261.18%6870.39%22758,174
Hertford67.84%6,91030.42%3,0991.31%1330.43%440.00%010,186
Hoke53.35%9,72542.57%7,7593.17%5770.77%1400.15%2718,184
Hyde41.88%96555.90%1,2881.82%420.35%80.04%12,304
Iredell29.96%24,73466.31%54,7542.65%2,1850.91%7540.17%14082,567
Jackson41.15%7,56452.80%9,7063.99%7341.46%2680.60%11018,382
Johnston33.17%28,36263.59%54,3722.74%2,3470.37%3140.13%11285,507
Jones40.21%2,06557.92%2,9741.15%590.72%370.00%05,135
Lee41.74%10,46954.66%13,7122.73%6840.76%1910.11%2825,084
Lenoir46.45%12,09151.41%13,3811.52%3950.62%1620.00%026,029
Lincoln24.73%9,89771.97%28,8062.43%9710.76%3050.11%4440,023
Macon27.50%4,87668.38%12,1272.63%4671.29%2280.20%3617,734
Madison34.84%3,92660.19%6,7832.98%3360.91%1031.07%12111,269
Martin48.86%5,84649.29%5,8971.38%1650.39%470.08%911,964
McDowell23.48%4,66773.30%14,5681.99%3961.15%2290.08%1519,875
Mecklenburg62.29%294,56232.89%155,5183.28%15,4881.26%5,9370.29%1,352472,857
Mitchell19.71%1,59677.59%6,2821.70%1380.69%560.30%248,096
Montgomery35.96%4,15061.79%7,1301.76%2030.44%510.05%611,540
Moore33.54%16,32862.62%30,4872.78%1,3540.96%4680.10%5048,687
Nash48.75%23,23548.92%23,3181.57%7500.63%3010.13%6047,664
New Hanover45.56%50,97549.46%55,3403.53%3,9491.06%1,1840.40%449111,897
Northampton62.39%6,14436.37%3,5820.94%930.29%290.00%09,848
Onslow30.65%17,51464.97%37,1223.37%1,9260.84%4810.16%9257,135
Orange72.78%59,92322.54%18,5572.92%2,4041.21%9970.56%45982,340
Pamlico35.63%2,44861.98%4,2581.80%1240.44%300.15%106,870
Pasquotank49.54%8,61547.04%8,1802.54%4420.70%1220.18%3217,391
Pender33.54%9,35463.26%17,6392.45%6830.56%1570.19%5227,885
Perquimans34.57%2,31962.27%4,1772.42%1620.64%430.10%76,708
Person39.93%7,83257.03%11,1852.14%4190.72%1420.18%3619,614
Pitt51.94%41,82444.32%35,6912.68%2,1620.84%6800.21%17080,527
Polk34.16%3,73561.90%6,7682.49%2720.98%1070.48%5210,934
Randolph20.43%13,19476.55%49,4302.17%1,4030.69%4460.16%10264,575
Richmond43.98%8,50153.72%10,3831.72%3330.45%870.12%2419,328
Robeson46.54%19,01650.82%20,7621.97%8030.62%2520.06%2540,858
Rockingham33.65%14,22863.46%26,8302.06%8710.70%2940.13%5542,278
Rowan30.14%19,40066.51%42,8102.36%1,5170.88%5640.12%7864,369
Rutherford24.80%7,51572.16%21,8692.06%6240.86%2610.13%3930,308
Sampson40.68%10,54757.23%14,8381.52%3930.58%1500.00%025,928
Scotland52.55%7,31944.92%6,2561.82%2540.52%730.19%2613,928
Stanly23.71%7,09473.42%21,9642.22%6640.56%1690.09%2629,917
Stokes20.69%4,66575.90%17,1162.53%5710.77%1730.11%2522,550
Surry23.26%9,00573.52%23,6712.30%7390.78%2500.15%4832,196
Swain35.86%2,19658.24%3,5663.92%2401.50%920.47%276,123
Transylvania36.70%6,55858.87%10,5202.74%4891.23%2200.46%8217,869
Tyrrell41.40%72056.07%9751.61%280.63%110.29%51,739
Union32.48%34,33563.10%66,7053.15%3,3271.11%1,1760.15%163105,706
Vance61.22%12,22936.70%7,3321.47%2940.49%970.13%2519,977
Wake57.38%302,56937.16%195,9843.69%19,4451.44%7,6000.33%1,739527,337
Warren65.17%6,41932.64%3,2151.49%1470.70%690.00%09,850
Washington56.93%3,50941.60%2,5641.05%650.41%250.02%16,164
Watauga47.15%14,13845.68%13,6974.46%1,3361.80%5390.92%27529,985
Wayne42.95%21,76954.33%27,5401.90%9630.76%3830.07%3350,688
Wilkes21.21%6,63875.89%23,7522.07%6470.73%2280.10%3131,296
Wilson51.56%19,66345.97%17,5311.75%6670.67%2560.05%1838,135
Yadkin17.93%3,16078.76%13,8802.26%3980.86%1520.19%3417,624
Yancey32.09%3,19664.11%6,3852.62%2610.77%770.41%419,960
Totals46.17%2,188,20149.84%2,361,9422.75%130,0991.00%47,4380.25%11,6124,739,292

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 13 congressional districts.[11]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 30% 67% G.K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 42% Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd 60% 36% Walter B. Jones
4th 27% 68% David Price
5th 57% 39% Virginia Foxx
6th 56% 41% Mark Walker
7th 57% 39% David Rouzer
8th 56% 41% Richard Hudson
9th 54% 42% Robert Pittenger
10th 60% 36% Patrick T. McHenry
11th 62% 33% Mark Meadows
12th 28% 68% Alma Adams
13th 53% 44% Ted Budd

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Predictions

The following were final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Carolina as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[12]
  2. CNN: Tossup[13]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[14]
  4. NBC: Tossup[15]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[16]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[17]
  7. Fox News: Tossup[18]
  8. ABC: Tossup[19]

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. However, the state returned to the Republicans in 2012 when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, the outcome going into election night was heavily debated.

Despite winning the state, Trump, in someways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.6% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama.

Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to leans more Republican at the presidential level. However, the Democratic victory in the concurrent gubernatorial election, changing demographics and very close margins, suggest that the Republican advantage in the state is waning and that it will remain a "battleground state".

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 Binker, Mark. "NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots". WRAL.com. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  2. 1 2 3
  3. 1 2 Burns, Matthew. "WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC". WRAL.com. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  4. ↑ "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  5. ↑ "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  6. ↑ "Live results from the North Carolina primary". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved 2016-04-26.
  7. ↑ "NC SBE Contest Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Government of North Carolina. 16 March 2015. Retrieved 16 March 2016.
  8. ↑ News & Observer
  9. ↑ WFMY-TV
  10. ↑ "North Carolina State Board of Elections". Retrieved November 14, 2012.
  11. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  12. ↑ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  13. ↑ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. 2016-11-08. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  14. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  15. ↑ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  16. ↑ "ElectoralVote". ElectoralVote. 2000-12-31. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  17. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  18. ↑ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  19. ↑ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.