United States presidential election in Florida, 2016

United States presidential election in Florida, 2016
November 8, 2016
Turnout 75% Increase [1]

 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 4,617,886 4,504,975
Percentage 49.02% 47.82%
County Results[2]
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color[3]
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald John Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Florida was won by Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote that included a 1.2% winning margin over Hillary Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote.

On March 15, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Florida voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, America's Party, Constitution, and Socialism and Liberation parties' respective nominees for president (Green on July 31). Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated weren't able to vote in any primaries. Florida is a winner-take-all voting state for Republicans, but is a proportional voting state for Democrats. Trump won the Republican presidential primary in Florida, while Clinton won the Democratic primary in the state.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Democratic debate

March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida

Candidate Airtime Polls[4]
Clinton 23:29 51.0%
Sanders 17:51 39.6%

The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.[5][6] The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen."[7] The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.[8]

Opinion polling

Results

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted N/A 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: The Green Papers, Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results
Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Republican primary

Republican debate

March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida

CandidateAirtimePolls[9]
Trump28:1138.6%
Cruz21:4221.8%
Rubio21:2318.0%
Kasich18:4912.0%

The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor Stephen Dinan. The Washington Times cohosted the debate.[10] The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field.[11] On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign."[12] This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.[13]

Results

Election results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Florida Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,079,870 45.72% 99 0 99
Marco Rubio 638,661 27.04% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 404,891 17.14% 0 0 0
John Kasich 159,976 6.77% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 43,511 1.84% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 21,207 0.90% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 4,450 0.19% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,624 0.11% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,493 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,899 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 1,211 0.05% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 693 0.03% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 319 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 2,361,805 100.00% 99 0 99
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

The Green Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.[14]

On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary via instant-runoff voting.

Green Party of Florida Primary - First Round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 18 52.9%
Elijah Manley 14 41.2%
William Kreml 1 2.94%
Kent Mesplay 1 2.94%
Sedinam Curry 0
Darryl Cherney 0
Total 34 100%
Green Party of Florida Primary - Second Round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 19 55.9%
Elijah Manley 14 41.2%
William Kreml 1 2.94%
Total 34 100
Green Party of Florida Primary - Third Round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 20 58.8% 15
Elijah Manley 14 41.2% 10
Total 34 100 25

Polling

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[15]
  2. CNN: Tossup[16]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[17]
  4. NBC: Tossup[18]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Tossup[19]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[20]
  7. Fox News: Tossup[21]
  8. ABC: Tossup[22]

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 2016 [23]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes % Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 4,617,886 49.02% 29
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 4,504,975 47.82% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 207,043 2.20% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 64,399 0.68% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 16,475 0.17% 0
Reform Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 9,108 0.10% 0
Total 9,419,886 100.00% 29

By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections.[3]

Donald John Trump

Republican

 Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic

 Gary Earl Johnson

Libertarian

 Jill Ellen Stein

Green

 Various Candidates

Write-ins

 Total Votes
County # % # % # % # % # % #
Alachua 46,834 36.43% 75,820 58.97% 4,059 3.16% 1,507 1.17% 351 0.27% 128,571
Baker 10,294 81.48% 2,112 16.72% 169 1.34% 30 0.24% 29 0.23% 12,634
Bay 62,194 71.12% 21,797 24.92% 2,652 3.03% 562 0.64% 248 0.28% 87,453
Bradford 8,913 73.67% 2,924 24.17% 177 1.46% 47 0.39% 37 0.31% 12,098
Brevard 181,848 57.78% 119,679 38.02% 9,451 3.00% 2,708 0.86% 1,066 0.34% 314,752
Broward 260,951 31.37% 553,320 66.51% 11,078 1.33% 5,094 0.61% 1,508 0.18% 831,951
Calhoun 4,655 76.55% 1,241 20.41% 124 2.04% 25 0.41% 36 0.59% 6,081
Charlotte 60,218 62.48% 33,445 34.70% 1,946 2.02% 567 0.41% 198 0.21% 96,374
Citrus 54,456 68.33% 22,789 28.59% 1,724 2.16% 480 0.60% 251 0.31% 79,700
Clay 74,963 70.40% 27,822 26.13% 2,806 2.64% 571 0.54% 321 0.30% 106,483
Collier 105,423 61.73% 61,085 35.77% 3,263 1.91% 747 0.44% 271 0.16% 170,789
Columbia 20,368 70.95% 7,601 26.48% 523 1.82% 150 0.52% 65 0.23% 28,707
DeSoto 6,778 62.65% 3,781 34.95% 166 1.53% 53 0.49% 40 0.37% 10,818
Dixie 5,822 80.84% 1,270 17.63% 77 1.07% 21 0.29% 12 0.17% 7,202
Duval 211,672 48.92% 205,704 47.54% 11,318 2.62% 2,912 0.67% 1,089 0.25% 432,695
Escambia 88,808 58.25% 57,461 37.69% 4,612 3.02% 1,055 0.69% 533 0.35% 152,469
Flagler 33,850 58.87% 22,026 38.30% 1,114 1.94% 388 0.67% 125 0.22% 57,503
Franklin 4,125 68.58% 1,744 28.99% 95 1.58% 33 0.55% 18 0.30% 6,015
Gadsden 6,728 30.43% 15,020 67.62% 229 1.04% 78 0.35% 58 0.26% 22,113
Gilchrist 6,740 80.05% 1,458 17.32% 155 1.84% 43 0.51% 24 0.29% 8,420
Glades 2,996 68.83% 1,271 29.20% 54 1.24% 18 0.41% 14 0.32% 4,353
Gulf 5,329 73.07% 1,720 23.58% 195 2.67% 27 0.37% 22 0.30% 7,293
Hamilton 3,443 63.06% 1,904 34.87% 79 1.45% 17 0.31% 17 0.31% 5,460
Hardee 5,242 69.13% 2,149 28.34% 140 1.85% 24 0.32% 28 0.37% 7,583
Hendry 6,195 55.74% 4,615 41.52% 207 1.86% 52 0.47% 46 0.41% 11,115
Hernando 58,970 62.87% 31,795 33.90% 2,051 2.19% 710 0.76% 270 0.29% 93,796
Highlands 29,565 64.71% 14,937 32.69% 854 1.87% 186 0.41% 144 0.32% 45,686
Hillsborough 266,870 44.65% 307,896 51.52% 15,703 2.63% 5,032 0.84% 2,159 0.36% 597,660
Holmes 7,483 87.89% 853 10.02% 133 1.56% 19 0.22% 26 0.31% 8,514
Indian River 48,620 60.77% 29,043 36.30% 1,723 2.15% 419 0.52% 204 0.25% 80,009
Jackson 14,257 67.76% 6,397 30.40% 266 1.26% 60 0.29% 61 0.29% 21,041
Jefferson 3,930 51.41% 3,541 46.32% 110 1.44% 42 0.55% 22 0.29% 7,645
Lafayette 2,809 82.35% 518 15.27% 47 1.39% 10 0.29% 8 0.24% 3,392
Lake 102,188 59.48% 62,838 36.86% 3,985 2.34% 975 0.57% 476 0.28% 170,462
Lee 191,551 58.68% 124,908 38.27% 6,982 2.14% 2,127 0.65% 852 0.26% 326,420
Leon 53,821 35.38% 92,068 60.52% 4,403 2.89% 1,366 0.90% 474 0.31% 152,132
Levy 13,775 71.02% 5,101 26.30% 358 1.85% 102 0.53% 59 0.27% 19,395
Liberty 2,543 77.15% 651 19.75% 76 2.31% 17 0.52% 9 0.27% 3,296
Madison 4,851 57.04% 3,526 41.46% 95 1.12% 22 0.26% 11 0.13% 8,505
Manatee 101,944 56.97% 71,224 39.80% 4,177 2.33% 1,149 0.64% 464 0.26% 178,958
Marion 107,833 61.72% 62,041 35.51% 3,365 1.93% 972 0.56% 489 0.28% 174,700
Martin 53,204 62.02% 30,185 35.18% 1,804 2.10% 474 0.55% 125 0.15% 85,792
Miami-Dade 333,999 34.07% 624,146 63.68% 13,219 1.35% 5,985 0.61% 2,855 0.29% 980,204
Monroe 21,904 51.57% 18,971 44.66% 1,131 2.66% 398 0.94% 74 0.17% 42,478
Nassau 34,266 73.52% 10,869 23.32% 1,195 2.56% 188 0.40% 89 0.19% 46,607
Okaloosa 71,893 71.28% 23,780 23.58% 4,171 4.14% 611 0.61% 400 0.40% 100,855
Okeechobee 9,356 68.53% 3,959 29.00% 234 1.71% 53 0.37% 51 0.37% 13,653
Orange 195,216 35.74% 329,894 60.39% 14,483 2.65% 4,777 0.35% 1,905 0.35% 546,275
Osceola 50,301 35.88% 85,458 60.95% 2,811 2.00% 1,003 0.45% 633 0.45% 140,206
Palm Beach 272,402 41.13% 374,673 56.57% 10,370 1.57% 3,723 0.18% 1,164 0.18% 662,332
Pasco 142,101 58.93% 90,142 37.38% 6,129 2.54% 1,908 0.36% 859 0.36% 241,139
Pinellas 239,201 48.58% 233,701 47.46% 13,627 2.77% 4,611 0.26% 1,263 0.26% 492,403
Polk 157,430 55.37% 117,433 41.30% 6,810 2.40% 1,647 0.35% 994 0.35% 284,314
Putnam 22,138 66.85% 10,094 30.48% 597 1.80% 219 0.21% 69 0.21% 33,117
Santa Rosa 65,339 74.46% 18,464 21.04% 3,123 3.56% 524 0.34% 295 0.34% 87,745
Sarasota 124,438 54.32% 97,870 42.73% 4,715 2.06% 1,596 0.19% 444 0.19% 229,063
Seminole 109,443 48.66% 105,914 47.09% 6,811 3.03% 1,974 0.34% 754 0.19% 224,896
St. Johns 88,684 64.96% 43,099 31.57% 3,612 2.65% 864 0.19% 295 0.19% 136,514
St. Lucie 70,289 49.90% 66,881 47.48% 2,475 1.76% 867 0.24% 444 0.24% 140,847
Sumter 52,730 68.78% 22,638 29.53% 971 1.27% 201 0.16% 125 0.16% 76,665
Suwanee 14,287 76.43% 3,964 21.20% 309 1.65% 81 0.28% 53 0.28% 18,694
Taylor 6,930 74.60% 2,152 23.16% 151 1.63% 33 0.26% 24 0.26% 9,290
Union 4,568 80.22% 1,014 17.81% 90 1.58% 12 0.18% 10 0.18% 5,694
Volusia 143,007 54.82% 109,091 41.82% 6,111 2.34% 2,003 0.25% 657 0.25% 260,869
Wakulla 10,512 68.48% 4,348 28.32% 378 2.46% 66 0.31% 47 0.31% 15,351
Walton 25,756 76.57% 6,876 20.44% 783 2.33% 142 0.24% 80 0.24% 33,637
Washington 8,637 77.42% 2,264 20.29% 192 1.72% 22 0.37% 41 0.37% 11,156
Totals 4,617,886 49.02% 4,504,975 47.82% 207,043 2.20% 64,399 0.68% 25,736 0.27% 9,122,861
Flipped counties

The following Florida counties had a Democrat win in 2012, but went Republican in 2016:

By congressional district

Trump won 14 of 27 congressional districts.[24]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 68% 28% Jeff Miller
Matt Gaetz
2nd 66% 31% Gwen Graham
Neal Dunn
3rd 56% 40% Ted Yoho
4th 62% 34% Ander Crenshaw
John Rutherford
5th 36% 61% Corrine Brown
Al Lawson
6th 57% 40% Ron DeSantis
7th 44% 51% John Mica
Stephanie Murphy
8th 58% 38% Bill Posey
9th 42% 55% Alan Grayson
Darren Soto
10th 35% 62% Daniel Webster
Val Demings
11th 65% 33% Rich Nugent
Daniel Webster
12th 57% 39% Gus Bilirakis
13th 46% 50% David Jolly
Charlie Crist
14th 39% 57% Kathy Castor
15th 53% 43% Dennis Ross
16th 54% 43% Vern Buchanan
17th 62% 35% Tom Rooney
18th 53% 44% Patrick Murphy
Brian Mast
19th 60% 38% Curt Clawson
Francis Rooney
20th 45% 55% Alcee Hastings
21st 39% 59% Lois Frankel
22nd 41% 57% Ted Deutch
23rd 36% 62% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 16% 81% Frederica Wilson
25th 50% 48% Mario Diaz-Balart
26th 41% 57% Carlos Curbelo
27th 39% 59% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Analysis

Florida voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 1.2%.[25] Trump's victory continued Florida's tradition of being a swing state in presidential elections, having not voted for a losing candidate since 1992. Moreover, it was the fifth-closest state result, with only Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closer. According to National Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from the Cuban-American voters in the state — in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.[26]

The Republican Party received 612,923 more popular votes in the primaries than the Democratic Party, whereas in 2008, the Republican Party had only received 368,044 more votes than the Democratic Party. President Trump's victory in the state also means Florida has voted Republican in 7 of the last 10 presidential elections, tilting it to a more Republican-leaning swing state.

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/
  2. ↑ https://results.elections.myflorida.com/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/8/2016&DATAMODE=
  3. 1 2 2016 General Election November 8, 2016. Official Election Results. Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
  4. ↑ RealClearPolitics.com"
  5. ↑ "Miami Dade College To Host Democratic Presidential Debate". wlrn.org. Retrieved 2016-01-08.
  6. ↑ "DNC/Florida Democratic Party Primary Debate Hosted by Univision News and The Washington Post to Take Place at the Nation's Largest and Most Diverse College, Miami Dade College, on March 9, 2016 - Univision". Univision. Retrieved 2016-01-08.
  7. ↑ Avendaño, Alberto (2015-12-18). "Él impulsa el debate hispano entre los precandidatos demócratas". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2016-01-08.
  8. ↑ "Univision/Washington Post Democratic debate to be held March 9". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-01-08.
  9. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination".
  10. ↑ Wemple, Erik (January 20, 2016). "CNN partnering with the Washington Times for March 10 debate in Miami". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 13, 2016.
  11. ↑ "CNN announces March debate in Florida". Politico. Retrieved January 18, 2016.
  12. ↑ "Republican Debate in Miami: What to Watch". CNN.com. March 10, 2016.
  13. ↑ Peters, Jeremy; Barbaro, Michael (March 15, 2016). "Marco Rubio Suspends His Presidential Campaign". The New York Times. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  14. ↑ "2016 Presidential Primary". Green Party of Florida. May 5, 2016. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push". Retrieved 9 November 2016 – via LA Times.
  16. ↑ Director, David Chalian, CNN Political. "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  17. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  18. ↑ "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  19. ↑ "ElectoralVote". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  20. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  21. ↑ "Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". 7 November 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  22. ↑ News, A. B. C. (8 November 2016). "The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States". Retrieved 9 November 2016.
  23. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Retrieved April 14, 2017.
  24. ↑ https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
  25. ↑ "Florida Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  26. ↑ Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump, Pew Research Center, November 15, 2016
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