Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020
2,472 delegate votes to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegates votes needed to win

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump

The 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses will be a series of electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, who will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2020 election. The delegates also approve the party platform and vice-presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump formally launched his bid for re-election on February 17, 2017.

Candidates

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

Numerous pundits, journalists and politicians have speculated that the 2020 election cycle might see a significant Republican Party challenger to President Donald Trump, namely because of his historic unpopularity in polls, his association with allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and his support of unpopular policies and decisions.[1][2][3] Several Republican critics of the Trump Administration have indeed hinted at or are reportedly considering challenging Trump. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is running for election to replace outgoing Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, which would give him a significant platform to challenge Donald Trump should he win.[4] Other Republicans such as Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Arizona Senator Jeff Flake have spent much of 2017 and 2018 leading a Republican opposition to Trump in their outspoken criticism of the President on the Senate floor. 2016 presidential candidates John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have also indicated interest in challenging Trump. In the case of Ohio Governor John Kasich, rumors have circulated that he might consider a joint ticket with Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper.[5] These rumors were swiftly denied, but much speculation still exists.

Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again".[6]

However, Flake and Kasich have been to New Hampshire to reportedly "test the waters."[7]

Declared major candidates

Candidate Most recent position Candidacy Total pledged delegates Contests won[lower-alpha 1]

Donald Trump		 President of the United States
from New York
(2017–present)		 February 17, 2017
(Campaign)		 0 / 2472 (0%)

N/A

Other declared candidates

During the 2016 cycle, hundreds of people sent the required forms to the Federal Election Commission to declare their candidacies for President. Among this cycle's include:

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Jack Fellure		 October 3, 1931
(age 87)
Midkiff, West Virginia		 Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016
West Virginia		 November 9, 2016
FEC Filing		 [8]

Jonathon Sharkey		 April 2, 1964
(age 54)
Elizabeth, New Jersey		 Professional wrestler
Candidate for President in 2004, 2008, and 2012
Candidate for Governor of Minnesota in 2006
Candidate for U.S. Representative from Florida in 2002
Candidate for U.S. Senate from Indiana in 2000
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Jersey in 2000
Florida		 August 17, 2011
FEC Filing		 [9]

Withdrawn candidates

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. On July 18, 2018, Charlotte, North Carolina's Spectrum Center was chosen unanimously as the site of the Convention.[78]

Withdrew from consideration

Endorsements

Donald Trump
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Brad Thor (withdrawn)
Individuals

Polling

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Tom Cotton Ted Cruz Jeff Flake John Kasich Mike Pence Ben Sasse Donald Trump Others Undecided
CNN/SSRS[90] 469 October 4–7, 2018 ± 5.7% – – – – – – 74% 21% 5%
CNN/SSRS[91] 458 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.7% – – – – – – 75% 20% 4%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times National Poll[92] 3,862 December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 ± 2% – – – – – – 75% 25% –
Emerson Polling[93] 600 January 8–11, 2018 ± 3.9% – – – – – – 68% 18% 14%
Public Policy Polling[94] 284 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% – – – – – – 70% 24% 6%
– 21% – – – – 64% – 15%
– – 16% – – – 74% – 10%
– – – – 22% – 62% – 15%
– – – 19% – – 70% – 11%
PRRI 2017 American Values Survey[95] 846 October 18–30, 2017 ± 2.6% – – – – – – 59% 34% 7%
Public Policy Polling[96] 183 October 27–29, 2017 – – – – – – – 57% 36% 8%
– 27% – – – – 57% – 16%
– – 14% – – – 70% – 16%
– – – – 28% – 53% – 19%
– – – 24% – – 66% – 11%
Public Policy Polling[43] 268 September 22–25, 2017 – – – – – – – 61% 27% 12%
– 15% – – – – 68% – 17%
– – – – 21% – 59% – 21%
– – – 18% – – 68% – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[97]
(Trump-aligned)		 1,500 August 2017 ± 2.5% 1% 14% – 10% – 1% 50% – 24%
Public Policy Polling[44] 275 August 18–21, 2017 – – – – – – – 57% 29% 13%
– 22% – – – – 62% – 17%
– – – – 24% – 52% – 23%
– – – 21% – – 68% – 11%
Opinion Savvy[98] 221 August 16–17, 2017 ± 6.6% – 12% – 15% 65% – – – 8%
220 – – 8% 17% – – 68% – 7%
Marist Poll[99] 361 August 8–12, 2017 ± 5.2% – – – 23% – – 64% 3% 10%
– – – – 33% – 56% 3% 8%

Statewide polling

New Hampshire New Hampshire

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John Kasich Mike Pence Donald Trump Others Undecided
University of New Hampshire[100] 162 January 28 – February 10, 2018 ± 7.8% – – 60% 18% 23%
University of New Hampshire[101] 191 October 3–15, 2017 ± 7.1% – – 47% 23% 30%
American Research Group[102] 600 August 4–6, 2017 ± 4.0% 52% – 40% – 8%
41% 27% – – 32%

Ohio Ohio

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John Kasich Donald Trump Others Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University[103] 261 February 28 - March 9, 2018 ± 6.0% 27% 62% – 11%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ According to popular vote or pledged delegate count (not counting superdelegates)
  1. 1 2 3 This individual is not a member of the Republican Party, but has been the subject of speculation and/or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

  1. ↑ Staff, AOL. "Trump is most the unpopular first-year president in history -- but that's not even the bad news". AOL.com. Retrieved 2018-01-06.
  2. ↑ "What we learned about Trump, Russia, and collusion in 2017". Vox. Retrieved 2018-01-06.
  3. ↑ McManus, Doyle. "Trump will have a 2020 primary challenger. But who will it be? – LA Times". latimes.com. Retrieved 2018-01-06.
  4. ↑ Hooper, Molly K. (2018-01-05). "WATCH: GOP senators urge Romney to run for Senate". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-01-06.
  5. ↑ CNN, Mark Preston,. "Source: Kasich, Hickenlooper consider unity presidential ticket in 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2018-01-06.
  6. ↑ Chaitin, Daniel (May 19, 2018). "Roger Stone says Trump may not run in 2020, pledges to line up challenger to Pence-Haley ticket". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  7. ↑ "Could Trump face a 2020 Republican primary challenge? The first shoots of rebellion are seen in N.H." The Boston Globe.
  8. ↑ "Jack Fellure" (PDF). Retrieved June 22, 2017.
  9. ↑ Sharkey, Jonathon The Impaler (August 17, 2011). "JONATHON THE IMPALER SHARKEY, Ph.D., L.D.D.D." (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 4, 2015.
  10. ↑ O'Connor, Larry (April 21, 2018). "Conservative author Brad Thor announces 2020 challenge to Trump". The Washington Times. Retrieved April 22, 2018.
  11. ↑ Perry, Douglas (August 9, 2018). "Outcast Republicans still pining for 2020 challenger as Donald Trump's GOP popularity soars". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 9, 2018.
  12. ↑ Kormann, Carolyn (May 7, 2018). "The Hazard of Don Blankenship's Senate Campaign in West Virginia". The New Yorker. Retrieved May 10, 2018.
  13. ↑ Thomsen, Jacqueline (May 27, 2018). "Flake doesn't rule out challenging Trump in 2020". The Hill. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
  14. ↑ "Jeff Flake considers 2020 primary bid to challenge Trump". CBS News. March 16, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
  15. ↑ Cox, Erin (August 2, 2018). "Larry Hogan for president? He didn't rule it out". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 4, 2018.
  16. ↑ Samuels, Brett (August 12, 2018). "Kasich on 2020 bid: 'Maybe I will. Maybe I won't'". The Hill. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  17. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (April 3, 2018). "John Kasich, in New Hampshire, hints at Trump 2020 challenge: 'All my options are on the table'". Fox News. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
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  25. ↑ Belvedere, Matthew J. (June 7, 2018). "Jeb Bush: 'I don't know' if I'd ever run again, but I'd never do what Trump did to get elected". CNBC. Retrieved June 14, 2018.
  26. ↑ Curl, Joseph (April 3, 2017). "Is Jeb Bush (Jeb!) Already Running For President in 2020?". The Daily Wire. Retrieved May 23, 2017.
  27. ↑ Martin, Brittany (October 5, 2017). "Voters speculate Sen. Bob Corker will run for president in 2020". WTVC. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  28. ↑ Green, Lloyd (October 9, 2017). "Does Bob Corker challenge Trump in 2020?". Fox News. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  29. ↑ Whetstone, Tyler (October 27, 2017). "Bob Corker on a 2020 presidential bid: 'Way, way too early' to begin making any decision". USA Today. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  30. ↑ Giaritelli, Anna (June 22, 2017). "Carly Fiorina 'certainly would consider' another run for president". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved August 15, 2017.
  31. ↑ Devaney, Jason (June 22, 2017). "Carly Fiorina Won't Rule Out Running for President Again". Newsmax Media. Retrieved August 15, 2017.
  32. ↑ Richardson, Davis (September 29, 2017). "Carly Fiorina Hates Going To Strip Clubs (And She's Running For Office Again)". The Daily Caller. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  33. ↑ "Governor Greg Abbott for President in 2020?". News/Talk 95.1 & 790 KFYO.
  34. ↑ Garrett, Robert T. (March 8, 2018). "Texas Gov. Greg Abbott rules out running for president – in 2020, at least". Dallas News.
  35. ↑ Budowsky, Brent (October 24, 2017). "Bannon may run for president". The Hill. Retrieved October 26, 2017.
  36. ↑ Sherman, Gabriel (December 21, 2017). ""I Have Power": is Steve Bannon Running for President?". Vanity Fair. Retrieved December 21, 2017.
  37. ↑ https://apnews.com/87b52f8ea4874ed8a408927c12b12149
  38. ↑ Johnson, Brent (January 13, 2017). "Christie hints at radio gig, says he 'can't imagine' running for office again". NJ.com. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  39. ↑ Goodkind, Nicole (October 30, 2017). "Trump may not seek re-election: Rand Paul, Chris Christie". Newsweek. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  40. ↑ Wells, Dylan; Talwar, Saisha (August 9, 2017). "Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election". ABC News. Retrieved August 9, 2017.
  41. ↑ Millar, Lindsey (August 6, 2017). "Cotton figures in New York Times roundup on 2020 presidential race". Arkansas Times. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  42. ↑ Beaumont, Thomas (May 19, 2017). "GOP's Cotton in Iowa: "I'm ready for that new beginning."". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  43. 1 2 Jensen, Tom (September 28, 2017). "2018 Shaping Up Big For Democrats" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved September 28, 2017.
  44. 1 2 Jensen, Tom (August 23, 2017). "Trump Holds Steady After Charlottesville; Supporters Think Whites, Christians Face Discrimination" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 23, 2017.
  45. ↑ Zeitlin, Matthew (November 9, 2017). "Mark Cuban: "I'm Honestly Considering" Running For President". BuzzFeed. Retrieved November 11, 2017.
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  48. ↑ Chira, Susan (April 14, 2017). "Is This the Way a Woman Will Reach the White House?". The New York Times. Retrieved May 10, 2017.
  49. ↑ Schleifer, Theodore (April 13, 2017). "Haley says Trump doesn't limit her foreign policy bullhorn". CNN. Retrieved April 13, 2017.
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  51. ↑ "Will 'Mad Dog' Mattis challenge Trump in 2020 GOP presidential primary?". Newsrep. 6 June 2017.
  52. ↑ "LIVE Stream: President-Elect Donald Trump Rally in Fayetteville, NC". 6 December 2016.
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