United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016

United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016
November 8, 2016 (2016-11-08)
Turnout 67.34% Decrease[1]

 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,405,284 1,382,536
Percentage 47.22% 46.45%
County Results
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participate. Wisconsin voters also chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president: Bernie Sanders (D) and Ted Cruz (R) in an open primary with voters allowed to choose to vote in either one.

Donald Trump won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 47.2% to 46.5% for Hillary Clinton, thanks to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working class voters which the Democrats had previously had an advantage with,[2][3][4] making him the first Republican candidate to carry the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. On November 25, an irregularity was discovered by officials in Outagamie County, that resulted in the pre-official vote totals being reported incorrectly. This irregularity was due to a calculator error. It was corrected in the official vote totals.[5] Following a statewide recount requested by Jill Stein's campaign, Trump was certified to have won Wisconsin by a narrow margin — 1,405,284 votes to Clinton's 1,382,536.[6]

Wisconsin was also the tipping point state of the 2016 election. This was also the first time that Wisconsin did not vote the same as neighboring Illinois since 1988.

Background

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with former Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[7][8] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[9] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[10][11] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[12]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[13] With Obama and Biden's terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate is asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Democratic nomination process

Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016

The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Democratic primary, April 2016

Election results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 570,192 56.59% 48 1 49
Hillary Clinton 433,739 43.05% 38 9 47
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 1,732 0.17%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in) 18 0.00%
Scattering 431 0.04%
Uncommitted 1,488 0.15% 0 0 0
Total 1,007,600 100% 86 10 96
Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State

Green Party presidential preference convention

The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.[14]

Wisconsin Green Party presidential convention, April 13, 2016[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 7
William Kreml - - 1
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry - - -
Darryl Cherney - - -
Kent Mesplay - - -
Total - 100.00% 8

Republican nomination process

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015

The Republican Party held its fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Republican primary, April 2016

Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
Wisconsin Republican primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 533,079 48.20% 36 0 36
Donald Trump 387,295 35.02% 6 0 6
John Kasich 155,902 14.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 10,591 0.96% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 5,660 0.51% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,054 0.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,519 0.23% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,281 0.21% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,424 0.13% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,191 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 772 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 511 0.05% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 245 0.02% 0 0 0
Victor Williams (write-in) 39 <0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,105,944 100.00% 42 0 42
Source: The Green Papers

Polling

Polling prior to the election consistently showed Democrat Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of 5 - 8 percent in a four-way race. The last poll published prior to the election by Remington Research had Hillary Clinton with a 8-point lead over Donald Trump. On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by almost 1 point, a difference of 9 points from pre-election polling. Prior to the election, most major news networks and professional predictions predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic.

State voting history

Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards.

Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times.[16] Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.

The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.[16] In 2016, however, Republican Donald Trump surprisingly won the state, despite pre-election polling consistently showing Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton enjoying a significant lead by rather comfortably high margins.[17]

Statewide results

United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,405,284 47.22% 10
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,382,536 46.45% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 106,674 3.58% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 31,072 1.04% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 12,162 0.41% 0
Independent (write-in votes) Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 11,855 0.40% 0
Workers World Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly 1,770 0.06% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 1,502 0.05% 0
Others / Write-In Votes
-
-
 23,295 0.78% 0
Totals 2,976,150 100.00% 10
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Results breakdown

By congressional districts

District results showing number of votes by size and candidate by color.[18]

Official district results after recount from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.[18]

District Trump Clinton (others) Representative
1st 52% 42% 6% Paul Ryan (R)
2nd 29% 65% 6% Mark Pocan (D)
3rd 49% 44% 7% Ron Kind (D)
4th 22% 73% 5% Gwen Moore (D)
5th 57% 37% 7% Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
6th 55% 38% 7% Glenn Grothman (R)
7th 58% 37% 6% Sean Duffy (R)
8th 57% 37% 6% Mike Gallagher (R)

Results by county

Official results by county following recount.[19]

County Clinton Votes Trump Votes Johnson Votes Stein Votes Others Votes Total
Adams36.97%3,74558.89%5,9662.13%2160.78%791.22%12410,130
Ashland52.61%4,22641.12%3,3032.42%1942.08%1671.77%1428,032
Barron34.80%7,88960.05%13,6143.21%7270.75%1701.20%27122,671
Bayfield51.53%4,95342.90%4,1242.05%1971.92%1851.59%1539,612
Brown41.38%53,38252.10%67,2103.86%4,9851.06%1,3711.60%2,063129,011
Buffalo36.17%2,52557.99%4,0483.12%2181.06%741.66%1166,981
Burnett33.75%2,94961.91%5,4102.70%2360.77%670.87%768,738
Calumet36.25%9,64257.78%15,3673.96%1,0540.77%2041.23%32826,595
Chippewa37.66%11,88756.75%17,9163.86%1,2190.84%2640.89%28231,568
Clark30.87%4,22163.28%8,6523.33%4550.80%1091.73%23613,673
Columbia45.55%13,52847.69%14,1633.68%1,0921.17%3461.92%56929,698
Crawford44.24%3,41949.64%3,8363.58%2770.94%731.59%1237,728
Dane70.37%217,69723.04%71,2753.41%10,5411.40%4,3161.79%5,525309,354
Dodge32.42%13,96861.83%26,6353.57%1,5380.84%3611.34%57643,078
Door45.55%8,01448.77%8,5803.17%5580.82%1451.68%29517,592
Douglas50.39%11,35742.87%9,6613.21%7241.50%3392.02%45522,536
Dunn40.87%9,03451.96%11,4864.94%1,0931.33%2940.90%19922,106
Eau Claire49.69%27,34042.40%23,3314.55%2,5041.27%6982.09%1,15255,025
Florence25.04%66571.46%1,8982.41%640.64%170.45%122,656
Fond du Lac33.57%17,38759.89%31,0223.69%1,9090.86%4481.99%1,03051,796
Forest34.74%1,57961.32%2,7871.85%840.95%431.14%524,545
Grant41.25%10,05150.68%12,3504.78%1,1641.31%3191.99%48424,368
Green48.05%9,12245.79%8,6933.62%6871.03%1961.51%28718,985
Green Lake28.60%2,69366.02%6,2162.93%2760.80%751.66%1569,416
Iowa54.33%6,66939.18%4,8093.71%4560.95%1161.83%22512,275
Iron36.29%1,27559.24%2,0811.99%701.14%401.34%473,513
Jackson41.20%3,81852.94%4,9063.24%3001.17%1081.46%1359,267
Jefferson38.44%16,56954.32%23,4173.86%1,6621.07%4612.32%1,00043,109
Juneau34.71%4,07360.76%7,1302.36%2770.89%1051.28%15011,735
Kenosha46.92%35,79947.23%36,0373.58%2,7331.14%8681.14%86776,304
Kewaunee33.69%3,62761.47%6,6183.24%3490.73%790.87%9410,767
La Crosse50.89%32,40641.43%26,3784.20%2,6731.44%9192.04%1,29863,674
Lafayette42.91%3,28851.91%3,9773.11%2380.64%491.44%1107,662
Langlade31.91%3,25063.60%6,4782.73%2780.67%681.10%11210,186
Lincoln36.51%5,37157.10%8,4014.05%5960.77%1141.56%23014,712
Manitowoc35.64%14,53856.99%23,2443.83%1,5620.85%3472.68%1,09540,786
Marathon38.09%26,48156.12%39,0143.35%2,3290.92%6411.51%1,05369,518
Marinette31.50%6,40964.50%13,1222.58%5240.63%1290.78%15920,343
Marquette35.58%2,80859.68%4,7092.38%1880.63%501.72%1367,891
Menominee76.61%1,00220.41%2670.92%121.83%240.23%31,308
Milwaukee65.48%288,82228.58%126,0693.08%13,5901.03%4,5281.82%8,044441,053
Monroe35.80%7,05257.65%11,3563.59%7071.18%2321.79%35219,699
Oconto29.40%5,94066.04%13,3452.92%5900.58%1181.05%21320,206
Oneida37.66%8,10956.35%12,1323.49%7510.92%1991.58%34021,531
Outagamie40.53%38,06853.10%49,8794.19%3,9331.05%9861.14%1,06793,933
Ozaukee36.97%20,17055.84%30,4643.87%2,1110.71%3872.62%1,42854,560
Pepin35.98%1,34459.06%2,2063.11%1160.88%330.96%363,735
Pierce39.29%8,39952.73%11,2724.92%1,0521.31%2791.75%37421,376
Polk33.26%7,56560.72%13,8103.89%8851.02%2321.11%25322,745
Portage48.02%18,52944.84%17,3053.87%1,4931.51%5831.76%67938,589
Price35.24%2,66760.24%4,5592.62%1981.08%820.82%627,568
Racine45.22%42,64149.50%46,6813.45%3,2530.88%8330.95%89494,302
Richland44.23%3,56949.73%4,0133.01%2431.38%1111.65%1338,069
Rock51.71%39,33941.40%31,4933.76%2,8591.16%8851.97%1,49876,074
Rusk30.63%2,17164.39%4,5642.78%1970.89%631.31%937,088
Sauk46.85%14,69047.20%14,7993.52%1,1031.35%4241.09%34131,357
Sawyer38.34%3,50356.75%5,1852.30%2101.08%991.53%1409,137
Shawano30.63%6,06864.46%12,7693.09%6130.87%1730.94%18719,810
Sheboygan38.48%23,00054.40%32,5143.98%2,3780.92%5472.22%1,32759,766
St Croix36.80%17,48255.19%26,2224.92%2,3371.07%5102.01%95747,508
Taylor25.27%2,39369.46%6,5793.11%2950.71%671.45%1379,471
Trempealeau41.18%5,63653.82%7,3662.83%3880.86%1181.31%17913,687
Vernon44.63%6,37149.06%7,0043.02%4312.04%2911.25%17814,275
Vilas35.05%4,77060.00%8,1662.50%3400.86%1171.60%21813,611
Walworth36.41%18,71056.16%28,8634.12%2,1161.19%6122.12%1,09051,391
Washburn35.70%3,28259.13%5,4362.96%2720.82%751.39%1289,193
Washington27.17%20,85267.41%51,7403.58%2,7470.71%5431.14%87576,757
Waukesha33.34%79,22459.99%142,5433.74%8,8970.70%1,6732.21%5,256237,593
Waupaca32.39%8,45162.12%16,2093.07%8010.93%2421.50%39226,095
Waushara31.40%3,79163.50%7,6672.70%3260.80%961.61%19412,074
Winnebago42.52%37,04749.86%43,4454.38%3,8181.22%1,0632.02%1,76287,135
Wood37.61%14,22556.85%21,4983.61%1,3651.04%3930.89%33737,818
Totals46.45%1,382,53647.22%1,405,2843.58%106,6741.04%31,0721.70%50,5842,976,150

Counties that swung from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016

Recount

On November 25, 2016, with 90 minutes remaining on the deadline to petition for a recount to the state's electoral body, Jill Stein, 2016 presidential candidate of the Green Party of the United States, filed for a recount of the election results in Wisconsin. She signaled she intended to file for similar recounts in the subsequent days in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.[20] On November 26, the Clinton campaign announced that they were joining the recount effort in Wisconsin.[21]

The final result of the recount confirmed Trump's victory in Wisconsin, where he gained a net 131 votes.[22] Trump gained 837 additional votes, while Clinton gained 706 additional votes.[23]

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics/turnout
  2. ↑ "White working-class voters flipped Wisconsin red". Retrieved 2017-03-10.
  3. ↑ Cohn, Nate (2016-11-09). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class Whites". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2017-03-10.
  4. ↑ "NBC News Exit Poll in Wisconsin: Trump Energizes White Working Class". NBC News. Retrieved 2017-03-10.
  5. ↑ "Discrepancies in unofficial Outagamie County election results explained".
  6. ↑ "2016 National Popular Vote Tracker: Overall Vote".
  7. ↑ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  8. ↑ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  9. ↑ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  10. ↑ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  11. ↑ Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  12. ↑ Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  13. ↑ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  14. ↑ "WIGP Spring Gathering & Presidential Nominating Convention Sat. 4/16 in Madison". Wisconsin Green Party. 2016-04-01. Retrieved 2016-04-15.
  15. ↑ "Happy to report that I received a delegate in... - William P. Kreml". Retrieved April 20, 2016.
  16. 1 2 Wisconsin Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates
  17. ↑ https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/wisconsin-president-clinton-trump
  18. 1 2 PresidentContest RecountResult WardByWard withDistricts.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
  19. ↑ County by County Report President of the United States Recount.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
  20. ↑ http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/jill-stein-submits-presidential-recount-petition-wisconsin-n688316
  21. ↑ Scott, Eugene. "Clinton to join recount that Trump calls 'scam'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
  22. ↑ http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/judges-decision-expected-pennsylvania-recount-case-44139924
  23. ↑ http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/completed-wisconsin-recount-widens-donald-trump-s-lead-by-votes/article_3f61c6ac-5b18-5c27-bf38-e537146bbcdd.html
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