United States presidential election in Arizona, 2016

United States presidential election in Arizona, 2016
November 8, 2016
Turnout 74.17% Decrease

 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,252,401 1,161,167
Percentage 49.03% 45.46%
County Results
Results by county showing number of votes by size, and candidates by color
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was won by Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus The District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On March 22, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Arizona voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. (The Libertarian Party uses a privately funded caucus to select its presidential delegates and does not allow independents to vote in its primary.[1]) Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote, except in presidential elections.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally at Carl Hayden High School in Phoenix on March 21, 2016.
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix on March 15, 2016.
Former President Bill Clinton at a campaign rally for his wife at Central High School in Phoenix on March 20, 2016.

Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[2]

Opinion polling

Results

 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Arizona, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 262,459 56.29% 42 6 48
Bernie Sanders 192,962 41.39% 33 1 34
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,877 0.83%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 2,797 0.60%
Michael Steinberg 2,295 0.49%
Henry Hewes 1,845 0.40%
Uncommitted N/A 3 3
Total 466,235 100% 75 10 85
Source: The Green Papers, Arizona Secretary of State
Detailed results per congressional district
Detailed results for the Arizona Democratic primary, April 5, 2016[3][4]
District Total Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Votes Delegates Votes % Delegates Votes % Delegates
1st district 63,863 6 35,445 55.50% 3 26,267 41.13% 3
2nd district 78,237 8 42,797 54.70% 4 33,891 43.32% 4
3rd district 51,520 5 30,298 58.81% 3 20,091 39.00% 2
4th district 37,273 4 15,289 55.43% 2 20,662 41.02% 2
5th district 40,847 5 22,973 56.24% 3 16,982 41.57% 2
6th district 50,465 6 29,266 57.99% 4 20,259 40.14% 2
7th district 42,199 5 24,245 57.45% 3 17,173 40.70% 2
8th district 46,491 5 27,672 59.52% 3 17,651 37.97% 2
9th district 55,340 6 29,101 52.59% 3 25,359 45.82% 3
At-large delegates 466,235 16 262,459 56.29% 9 192,962 41.39% 7
Pledged PLEOs 466,235 9 262,459 56.29% 5 192,962 41.39% 4
Total 466,235 75 262,464 56.29% 42 192,965 41.39% 33

Republican primary

Businessman Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills on March 19, 2016.
Senator Ted Cruz at a campaign rally at Arizona Christian University in Phoenix on March 18, 2016.

Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[5]

Arizona Republican primary, March 22, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 286,743 45.95% 58 0 58
Ted Cruz 172,294 27.61% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 72,304 11.59% 0 0 0
John Kasich 65,965 10.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,940 2.39% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 4,393 0.70% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,269 0.36% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,300 0.21% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,270 0.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 988 0.16% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 523 0.08% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 498 0.08% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 309 0.05% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook (withdrawn) 243 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 624,039 100.00% 58 0 58
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

Green Party candidate Jill Stein at a campaign rally at the Mesa Public Library in Mesa on March 12, 2016.

The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[6] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[7]

Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 666 82% 5
Kent Mesplay 151 18% 1
Write-in/Blank 18 2% -
Total 817 100.00% 6

Alleged voter suppression

There is considerable controversy surrounding the Arizona primary elections of 2016, specifically having to do with the dramatic decrease in polling places in Maricopa County from 200 in 2012, to only 60 in 2016, despite the number of registered voters having increased from 300,000 in 2012 to 800,000 in 2016. This decrease in polling places was most pronounced in minority neighborhoods, most notably Latino neighborhoods, with areas like Central Phoenix having only 1 polling place for 108,000 voters. There were also reports of many voters who had been previously registered, coming up as unregistered, or registered as an independent, making them ineligible to vote. Voters who did manage to vote had to stand in long lines to cast their ballots, some for as long as five hours. Additionally, voters reported being required to vote with a provisional ballot. In 2005, Arizona threw out 27,878 provisional ballots, counting only about 72.5% of the total provisional ballots reported.[9] Taking into account Arizona's increasingly lax voting laws, and the amplifying effects of the Supreme Court's "gutting of the Voting Rights Act",[10] it's unknown what percentage of the provisional ballots were counted. This was the first presidential primary election in the state of Arizona since the 2013 Supreme Court decision to strike down Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which would have previously required Southern states with a history of voter discrimination, including Arizona, to receive federal approval before implementing any changes to voting laws and practices. These irregularities have led many to suspect a deliberate act of voter suppression and electoral fraud.

Within a day after the election took place on March 22, a petition went viral on the White House petitions site asking the Department of Justice to investigate voter suppression and election fraud in Arizona that reached its goal of 100,000 signatures in record time compared to other popular petitions.[11] In addition, Phoenix mayor Greg Stanton asked the Justice Department to launch an investigation into the allegations of voter suppression.

The Department of Justice has since launched a federal investigation into the primary.[12]

Polling

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Likely Clinton[13]
  2. CNN: Battleground[14]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Trump[15]
  4. NBC: Tossup[16]
  5. RealClearPolitics: Toss-up[17]
  6. Fox News: Leans Republican[18]
  7. ABC: Tossup[19]

Statewide results

U.S. presidential election in Arizona, 2016[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donald Trump 1,252,401 49.03%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 1,161,167 45.46%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 106,327 4.16%
Green Jill Stein 34,345 1.34%
Total votes 2,554,240 100.00%

Results by county

CountyTrump#Trump%Clinton#Clinton%Johnson#Johnson%Stein#Stein%Total Votes
Apache8,24030.50%17,08363.24%1,2214.52%4691.74%27,013
Cochise28,09257.41%17,45035.66%2,3944.89%9932.03%48,929
Coconino21,10836.45%32,40456.44%2,9785.14%1,4142.44%57,904
Gila14,18263.88%7,00331.55%8033.62%2120.95%22,200
Graham8,02567.22%3,30127.65%4974.16%1160.97%11,939
Greenlee1,89258.34%1,09233.67%2006.17%591.82%3,243
La Paz4,00368.29%1,57526.87%2113.60%731.25%5,862
Maricopa747,36148.63%702,90745.74%67,0434.36%19,4321.26%1,536,743
Mohave58,28273.67%17,45522.06%2,6393.34%7400.94%79,116
Navajo20,57752.56%16,45942.04%1,4103.60%7031.80%39,149
Pima167,42840.45%224,66154.28%15,6203.77%6,2001.50%413,909
Pinal72,81957.25%47,89237.65%5,0103.94%1,4671.15%127,197
Santa Cruz3,89724.45%11,69071.58%4322.66%2211.36%16,240
Yavapai71,33063.40%35,59031.63%3,9963.55%1,5881.41%112,504
Yuma25,16548.12%24,60547.05%1,8733.58%6491.24%52,292

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including one represented by a Democrat. Clinton also carried a district represented by a Republican.[21]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 48% 47% Ann Kirkpatrick
Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44% 49% Martha McSally
3rd 32% 62% Raúl Grijalva
4th 66% 27% Paul Gosar
5th 56% 36% Matt Salmon
Andy Biggs
6th 52% 42% David Schweikert
7th 22% 71% Ruben Gallego
8th 57% 36% Trent Franks
9th 38% 54% Kyrsten Sinema

Turnout

Voter Turnout was 74.17% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[20]

Analysis

Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.57%, a significantly reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.03% margin in 2012.[22] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[23] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. Maricopa County in particular, went from a 10.69% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.84% margin of victory for Trump.

Clinton also came close to winning Yuma County, and would have been the first Democrat to do so since the county was separated from La Paz County in the 1980s. Other rural counties that had been won by Bill Clinton in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction.

In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state whereas Clinton did best in the southern-central region.

Electors

Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.

The electors were

  • Bruce Ash
  • Walter Begay
  • Sharon Giese
  • Robert Graham
  • Alberto Gutier
  • Jerry Hayden
  • Carole Joyce
  • Jane Pierpoint Lynch
  • J. Foster Morgan
  • James O'Connor
  • Edward Robson

See also

References

  1. ↑ "How to vote in Arizona's presidential-preference election". Azcentral.com. March 22, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Democratic Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  3. ↑ The Green Papers
  4. ↑ "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Republican Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  7. ↑ "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  8. ↑ "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  9. ↑ Beal, Tom (January 29, 2005). "Counties inconsistent in provisional-vote rules. Was your vote counted?". votersunite.org. Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved March 26, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Voting Rights Act Section 4 Struck Down By Supreme Court".
  11. ↑ "Petition to White House about Arizona 'voter suppression' hit goal in about 40 hours".
  12. ↑ Lachman, Samantha; Reilly, Ryan J. (April 4, 2016). "The DOJ Is Investigating Arizona's Election Mess". The Huffington Post. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  13. ↑ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  14. ↑ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. 2016-11-08. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  15. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  16. ↑ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  17. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  18. ↑ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  19. ↑ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  20. 1 2 "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  21. ↑ https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
  22. ↑ "Arizona Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  23. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
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