United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2016

United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2016
November 8, 2016
Turnout 74.72%[1] Decrease

 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,367,716 1,322,951
Percentage 46.44% 44.92%
County Results
Results by county with size showing number of votes
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all fifty states and the District of Columbia participated.

On March 1, 2016, in the precinct caucuses, Minnesota voted for their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, Green and Libertarian parties' respective nominees for president.

Minnesota was won with a plurality by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and a 1.5% margin, the eleventh consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972. This was the closest presidential election in Minnesota since 1984, when Walter Mondale carried the state by a 0.2% margin and it was the only state not carried by Ronald Reagan. However, the state voted more Republican than the national average for the first time since 1952. Minnesota had the highest voter turnout in the nation with approximately 75 percent of states' eligible voters participating in the general election.[2]

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Minnesota Democratic caucuses, 2016
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)

 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 46 31
Popular vote 126,229 78,381
Percentage 61.69% 38.31%
Minnesota results by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
  Tie

Bernie Sanders received the most votes and the most delegates in the precinct caucuses.[3]

The 2016 turnout was slightly lower than the 2008 tally of 214,066, when Obama won with 142,109 votes, to Clinton's 68,994.

Minnesota Democratic caucuses, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 126,229 61.69% 46 1 47
Hillary Clinton 78,381 38.31% 31 13 44
Uncommitted N/A 0 2 2
Total 204,610 100% 77 16 93
Source: The Green Papers

Bernie Sanders won every congressional district in Minnesota.[4]

Republican caucuses

Minnesota Republican caucuses, 2016
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)

 
Candidate Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Donald Trump
Home state Florida Texas New York
Delegate count 17 13 8
Popular vote 41,397 33,181 24,473
Percentage 36.24% 29.04% 21.42%
 
Candidate Ben Carson John Kasich
Home state Maryland Ohio
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 8,422 6,565
Percentage 7.37% 5.75%
Minnesota results by county
  Marco Rubio
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
  Tie

The 38 delegates from Minnesota were allocated in this way. If a candidate received more than 85% of the vote, they would get all of 38 delegates. Otherwise, 24 delegates would be allocated proportionally based on the votes per congressional district (3 votes per district). On top of that, there were 10 at-large delegates and 3 party leaders (the National Committee Man, the National Committee woman, and the chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party). All of the at-large delegates were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote with a mandatory threshold of 10% to receive any delegates; if no one got at least 10%, all candidates would be eligible to get delegates.[5]

Minnesota Republican precinct caucuses, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Marco Rubio 41,397 36.24% 17 0 17
Ted Cruz 33,181 29.04% 13 0 13
Donald Trump 24,473 21.42% 8 0 8
Ben Carson 8,422 7.37% 0 0 0
John Kasich 6,565 5.75% 0 0 0
Write-ins 207 0.18% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 114,245 100.00% 38 0 38
Source: The Green Papers

Some media outlets recorded the votes by congressional district, rather than by county. Rubio won districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area as well as the southern part of the state. Cruz won districts 6, 7 and 8 in the St. Cloud area and rural north.[4]

Green caucuses

The Green Party of Minnesota held caucuses on March 1 in Saint Paul, Minneapolis, Bemidji, White Bear Lake, Blaine, Grand Rapids, and Willmar.[6] Jill Stein won the caucuses with 84.3% of the vote. The delegates apportioned to each candidate will be decided at the state convention in St. Cloud, Minnesota in June.[7] The results of the caucuses are as follows:[8]

Minnesota Green Party presidential caucus, March 1, 2016[9][10]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - 84.3% 7
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry - 5.9% -
William Kreml - 4.8% -
Darryl Cherney - 3.6% -
Kent Mesplay - 1.2% -
Total - 100.00% 7

Libertarian caucuses

Minnesota Libertarian caucuses, 2016
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)

 
Candidate Gary Johnson John McAfee Austin Petersen
Home state New Mexico Tennessee Missouri
Popular vote 171 26 17
Percentage 75.66% 11.50% 7.52%
Minnesota results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No votes

The Minnesota caucus was run on March 1, 2016, using ranked choice voting. Gary Johnson took over 75% of the 226 first-preference votes cast, with John McAfee a distant second on 11.5% and Austin Petersen third on 7.5%.[11]

Minnesota Libertarian Party presidential caucus, March 1, 2016[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 171 75.66%
John McAfee 26 11.50%
Austin Petersen 17 7.52%
Darryl Perry 4 1.77%
Cecil Ince 2 0.88%
Steve Kerbel 2 0.88%
None of the above 2 0.88%
Marc Allan Feldman 1 0.44%
Shawna Joy Sterling 1 0.44%
Total 226 100.00%

General election

Polling

Candidates

The following had write-in status:[13]

  • Dennis Andrew Ball and Richard Sanders
  • Henry Bartlett and Condoleezza Rice
  • Robert L. Buchanan and Jason A. Washington
  • Richard Duncan and Ricky Johnson
  • Cherunda Fox and Roger Kushner
  • Eric Gerhard and Ken Virnig
  • Joseph Glentz and Mike Hennessy
  • Ben Hartnell and Dave Marshall
  • Tom Hoefling and Steve Schulin
  • Alec Holbeck and John Hulet
  • James Hrenak Jr and Lauren Rasmussen
  • Alan Jacquemotte and Ronalee Evelyn Mueller
  • Lynn Kahn and Kathy Monahan
  • Chris Keniston and Deacon Taylor
  • Roger Koplitz and John Kerry
  • Laurence Kotlikoff and Edward Leamer
  • Gloria La Riva and Eugene Puryear
  • Johnson Immanuel Li and Aida Yuquimpo Li
  • Darin Lynch and Jaci Dukowitz
  • Joseph Maldonado and Douglas Terranova
  • Srinivasa K Mallapadi and Sripriya Mallapadi
  • Michael Andrew Maturen and Juan Antonio Munoz
  • Stephen J. McCarthy and Joyce Meyer
  • Daniel Muffoletto and Jesse Ventura
  • Michael S Olkowski and Daniel E Olkowski
  • Aaron Idean Orwick and Brad Alan Fredricks
  • Micah Payeur and Joshua Payeur
  • Ricky J. Regenold and James Kolden
  • Clifton Roberts and Breeze Harper
  • Matthew Roberts and Charles Clauss
  • Platt Robertson and Scott Falls
  • Marshall Schoenke and James Mitchell Jr.
  • Joe Schriner and Joe Moreaux
  • Derrick Schumacher and Ross Wendling
  • Arthur E. Sidner and Sandra Arcement
  • Michael L. "Mike" Smith and Daniel White
  • Keith Richard Snell and Russell LeBeau
  • Emidio Soltysik and Angela Walker
  • J. J. Vogel Walcutt and Chris Walcutt
  • Kirk Wettschreck and Lori Motzko
  • Jeffrey Ryan Wharton Sr. and Amy Klobuchar
  • Jerome S White (Jerry White) and Niles Niemuth
  • Demetra Jefferson Wysinger and Cedric D. Jefferson
  • Charles R. Zerilli and Ajamu Baraka

Analysis

Minnesota swung 6.2% Republican from the 2012 presidential election, a much larger shift than the nation at large. Hillary Clinton received fewer votes in the state than any Democratic candidate since Al Gore in 2000, and a smaller percentage of the total vote than any candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992. Notably, this election marked the first time since 1952 that the Democratic candidate performed worse in Minnesota than in the nation at large. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1% but won Minnesota by just 1.5%, or 44,765 votes, making the state 0.6% more Republican than the nation as a whole. Minnesota has been a primarily Democratic state in national elections since 1932. However, Donald Trump only increased his vote share compared to Mitt Romney in 2012 by 2,726 votes.

Due to the Republican gains made by Trump throughout the state, Clinton was dependent on her wins in Hennepin (Minneapolis) and Ramsey (St. Paul) counties, the two most populous counties in the state, and the Arrowhead Region in the northeastern corner of the state.[14] Two counties, Morrison and Todd, gave Trump over 70% of the vote, making this the first election since 1968 either major party candidate won a county with over 70%, with Trump also being the first Republican since Dwight D. Eisenhower to do so since 1956.

Results

Candidate Vice President Popular vote Percentage Electors
Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,367,716 46.44% 10
Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,322,951 44.92% 0
Gary Johnson William Weld 112,972 3.84% 0
Evan McMullin Mindy Finn 53,076 1.80% 0
Jill Stein Howie Hawkins 36,985 1.26% 0
Dan Vacek Mark Elworth, Jr. 11,291 0.38% 0
Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 9,456 0.32% 0
Alyson Kennedy Osborne Hart 1,672 0.06% 0
Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 1,431 0.05% 0
Mike Maturen (write-in) Juan Muñoz 244 0.01% 0
Other Registered Write-in 303 0.01% 0
Unregistered Write-in 26,716 0.91% 0
Total 2,968,281 100% 0

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[15]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 53% 38% Tim Walz
2nd 46% 45% John Kline
Jason Lewis
3rd 41% 50% Erik Paulsen
4th 30% 61% Betty McCollum
5th 18% 73% Keith Ellison
6th 59% 33% Tom Emmer
7th 61% 31% Collin Peterson
8th 54% 38% Rick Nolan

Source:[16]

By county

County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Aitkin33.95%3,13459.76%5,5166.29%5819,231
Anoka40.64%75,50050.25%93,3399.11%16,919185,758
Becker30.24%5,20863.18%10,8806.58%1,13417,222
Beltrami40.29%8,68850.00%10,7839.71%2,09321,564
Benton28.12%5,64064.17%12,8727.71%1,54620,058
Big Stone33.43%92158.37%1,6088.2%2262,755
Blue Earth42.95%14,42846.64%15,66710.41%3,49833,593
Brown27.31%3,76363.20%8,7089.49%1,30813,779
Carlton46.46%8,46044.81%8,1608.74%1,59118,211
Carver38.62%21,50852.17%29,0569.21%5,13255,696
Cass30.93%4,94962.39%9,9826.68%1,06815,999
Chippewa31.79%1,97860.50%3,7647.71%4806,222
Chisago30.69%9,27861.01%18,4418.3%2,50930,228
Clay44.12%12,97146.07%13,5439.81%2,88429,398
Clearwater25.91%1,10068.90%2,9255.18%2204,245
Cook56.32%1,91234.05%1,1569.63%3273,395
Cottonwood29.33%1,67864.31%3,6796.36%3645,721
Crow Wing30.64%10,98262.18%22,2877.18%2,57335,842
Dakota47.74%110,48343.03%99,5839.24%21,374231,440
Dodge29.12%3,10261.26%6,5279.62%1,02510,654
Douglas28.58%6,22764.11%13,9667.31%1,59221,785
Faribault29.05%2,15362.86%4,6598.09%6007,412
Fillmore35.02%3,87256.73%6,2718.25%91211,055
Freeborn37.64%6,04154.88%8,8087.49%1,20216,051
Goodhue36.73%9,44654.60%14,0418.67%2,23025,717
Grant31.82%1,10559.40%2,0638.78%3053,473
Hennepin63.13%429,28828.20%191,7708.66%58,919679,977
Houston39.09%4,14552.96%5,6167.95%84310,604
Hubbard29.75%3,42363.11%7,2617.14%82111,505
Isanti26.92%5,65764.88%13,6358.2%1,72421,016
Itasca37.75%9,01554.10%12,9208.14%1,94523,880
Jackson27.21%1,49265.81%3,6096.98%3835,484
Kanabec28.46%2,32763.96%5,2307.58%6208,177
Kandiyohi33.37%7,26658.72%12,7857.9%1,72121,772
Kittson34.51%82356.56%1,3498.93%2132,385
Koochiching36.24%2,30656.09%3,5697.67%4886,363
Lac qui Parle33.81%1,30559.40%2,2936.79%2623,860
Lake47.19%3,07744.96%2,9327.85%5126,521
Lake of the Woods24.67%55368.69%1,5406.65%1492,242
Le Sueur30.88%4,62361.33%9,1827.79%1,16614,971
Lincoln28.49%86063.96%1,9317.55%2283,019
Lyon31.31%3,82559.40%7,2569.28%1,13412,215
Mahnomen44.54%93047.46%9918.%1672,088
Marshall25.43%1,22566.60%3,2087.97%3844,817
Martin25.95%2,73367.06%7,0626.99%73610,531
McLeod26.47%4,97864.63%12,1558.9%1,67418,807
Meeker25.98%3,19165.98%8,1048.04%98712,282
Mille Lacs28.50%3,71064.07%8,3407.43%96713,017
Morrison20.65%3,63773.38%12,9255.97%1,05217,614
Mower41.98%7,43749.81%8,8238.21%1,45517,715
Murray27.74%1,29563.71%2,9748.55%3994,668
Nicollet43.58%7,88646.62%8,4379.8%1,77418,097
Nobles31.66%2,73361.39%5,2996.95%6008,632
Norman38.76%1,26452.10%1,6999.14%2983,261
Olmsted45.26%36,26844.51%35,66810.22%8,19380,129
Otter Tail28.74%9,34064.43%20,9396.83%2,22132,500
Pennington31.97%2,14759.57%4,0008.46%5686,715
Pine33.16%4,58059.31%8,1917.53%1,04013,811
Pipestone23.44%1,12769.43%3,3387.13%3434,808
Polk31.85%4,71260.69%8,9797.47%1,10514,796
Pope33.33%2,10660.03%3,7936.65%4206,319
Ramsey65.07%177,73825.95%70,8948.97%24,511273,143
Red Lake28.71%54060.66%1,14110.63%2001,881
Redwood24.79%1,88767.49%5,1377.71%5877,611
Renville27.83%2,11764.29%4,8907.88%5997,606
Rice44.50%14,43747.56%15,4297.94%2,57732,443
Rock28.37%1,37363.88%3,0917.75%3754,839
Roseau23.78%1,85669.85%5,4516.37%4977,804
Scott37.99%28,50253.24%39,9488.77%6,57975,029
Sherburne27.53%13,29364.31%31,0538.15%3,93748,283
Sibley25.14%1,95466.80%5,1938.07%6277,774
St. Louis51.39%57,77139.70%44,6308.91%10,021112,422
Stearns32.13%25,57659.83%47,6178.04%6,39979,592
Steele32.54%6,24158.39%11,1989.07%1,74019,179
Stevens39.20%2,11651.85%2,7998.95%4835,398
Swift33.76%1,68659.33%2,9636.91%3454,994
Todd23.21%2,78370.75%8,4856.05%72511,993
Traverse35.04%63058.34%1,0496.62%1191,798
Wabasha32.67%3,86659.07%6,9898.26%97711,832
Wadena24.29%1,68469.76%4,8375.96%4136,934
Waseca29.40%2,83861.81%5,9678.78%8489,653
Washington46.51%67,08644.67%64,4288.82%12,721144,235
Watonwan36.29%1,81455.38%2,7688.32%4164,998
Wilkin27.04%89364.48%2,1298.48%2803,302
Winona43.59%11,36646.49%12,1229.92%2,58626,074
Wright29.21%20,33462.16%43,2748.63%6,01069,618
Yellow Medicine28.89%1,52464.10%3,3827.01%3705,276

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2017-07-22.
  2. ↑ "Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2017-07-22.
  3. ↑ "Statement from Chairman Ken Martin on Precinct Caucuses". Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party. March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  4. 1 2 "Results from the Minnesota caucuses". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved 2016-04-26.
  5. ↑ "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-24.
  6. ↑ "Green Party Minnesota Sunflower Seed - February 2016". Minnesota Green Party. 2016-02-19. Retrieved 2016-02-20.
  7. ↑ "Jill Stein Wins GPMN Presidential Straw Poll". 2016-03-02. Retrieved 2016-03-02.
  8. ↑ "Stein wins 84.3% in Minnesota Green presidential caucuses". 2016-03-02. Retrieved 2016-03-02.
  9. ↑ "Stein wins in Boston and Worcester". Green Party Watch. 2 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  10. ↑ "Unofficial results show Stein easily winning Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party presidential primary". Green Party Watch. 2 March 2015. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  11. ↑ "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 20 March 2016.
  12. ↑ "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  13. ↑ http://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/2741/2016-minnesota-registered-write-ins-federal-offices-complete-and-final-list.pdf
  14. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  15. ↑ https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
  16. ↑ Simon, Steve (29 November 2016). "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Minnesota Secretary of State. State of Minnesota. Retrieved 2 December 2016.
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