Florida Democratic primary, 2016

Florida Democratic primary, 2016

March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)

 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 141 73
Popular vote 1,101,414[1] 568,839
Percentage 64.4% 33.3%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Florida Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Florida primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Debates and forums

March 2016 debate in Miami

On March 9, 2016, the Democratic Party held an eighth presidential debate at Miami Dade College in Miami, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Official Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.4%
Bernie Sanders
33.3%
Other
2.3%
ARG[2]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac[3]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 519

March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling[4]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 627

March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 796

March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 4%
Florida Atlantic University[6]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 414

March 8–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided 10%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
WTSP/Mason-Dixon[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

March 7–9, 2016 Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Others / Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 511

March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 6%
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13[10]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 823

March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 264

March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
Wash Post/Univision[12]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 449

March 2-5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 10%
University of North Florida[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 685

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Others / Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[14]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

February 24–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

February 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Quinnipiac[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 476

February 21–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided 8%
Florida Southern College[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample Size: 608

January 30 – February 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
43%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 31%
Florida Atlantic University[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample Size: 371

January 15–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Not Reported
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Florida Atlantic University[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample Size: 355

November 15–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Other 4.5%
Undecided 3.7%
Bay News 9/ News13[19]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 826

October 28 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley 3%
Other 2%
Undecided 6%
Saint Leo University Polling Institute[20]

Margin of error: ±6.0%
Sample size: 165

October 17–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
50.9%
Joe Biden 15.2% Bernie Sanders 13.3%
Unsure/Don't Know 8.5%
Quinnipiac University[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 411

September 25 – October 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
43%
Joe Biden
19%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Someone else/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[22]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 368

September 11–13, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Joe Biden 17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 1%
Lawrence Lessig 0%
Someone else/Undecided 6%
Gravis Marketing[23]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 693

September 5–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41.6%
Joe Biden
21.4%
Bernie Sanders 12.5%
Martin O'Malley 1.5%
Jim Webb 1.3%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 21.3%
Quinnipiac University[24]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 419

Posted September 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Joe Biden 15%
Lincoln Chafee 4%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%
Quinnipiac University[25]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 345

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden 11%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 6%
Undecided 17%
St Pete Polls[26]

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1080

July 18–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee <1%
Unsure or someone else 13%
Mason-Dixon[27]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

July 20–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Undecided 23%
Gravis Marketing[28]

Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 881

June 16–20, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64.8%
Bernie Sanders
20.6%
Martin O'Malley 2.1%
Bill De Blasio 1.7%
Jim Webb 0.9%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 9.5%
Quinnipiac University[29]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 378

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[30]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
42%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[31]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 371

March 19–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
14%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Other/Undecided 11%
[32]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 435

February 24–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Joe Biden 9%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Mark Warner 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Undecided 18%
Quinnipiac University[33]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 322

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Bernie Sanders 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
39%
Elizabeth Warren
22%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Other 4%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 23%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University[34]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 457

July 17–21, 2014 Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[35]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 251

June 6–9, 2014 Hillary Clinton
66%
Elizabeth Warren
8%
Joe Biden 7%
Cory Booker 5%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone else/Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac University[36]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 501

April 23–28, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[37]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 529

January 22–27, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 16%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University[38]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 544

November 12–17, 2013 Hillary Clinton
70%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 300

March 15–18, 2013 Hillary Clinton
62%
Joe Biden
12%
Andrew Cuomo 5%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Deval Patrick 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

January 11–13, 2013 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
15%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Deval Patrick 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 11%
Andrew Cuomo
22%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Deval Patrick 5%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Mark Warner 2%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Someone Else/Undecided 48%

Results

 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted N/A 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: The Green Papers, Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results

Results by district

Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Results by county

County[39] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alachua49.2%17,73348.8%17,590
Baker38.5%65447.4%805
Bay52.6%5,20941.7%4,131
Bradford48.7%1,05641.8%908
Brevard59.7%31,83537.7%20,083
Broward72.5%132,52726.4%48,330
Calhoun36.2%43745.2%545
Charlotte62.1%8,12535.4%4,634
Citrus56.3%6,86339.2%4,776
Clay57.1%5,34539.5%3,698
Collier66.1%12,71231.9%6,127
Columbia52.9%2,29938.6%1,676
DeSoto52.6%98738.7%726
Dixie40.2%40945.1%459
Duval67.2%58,63230.6%26,716
Escambia62.2%16,76534.6%9,318
Flagler65.8%6,15231.9%2,977
Franklin47.0%66545.7%647
Gadsden76.4%7,44620.0%1,944
Gilchrist37.5%42850.7%578
Glades49.9%38740.3%313
Gulf47.4%56843.4%520
Hamilton54.7%75834.6%479
Hardee52.7%52939.1%393
Hendry60.6%1,15633.9%647
Hernando59.6%8,88237.0%5,512
Highlands61.4%3,71134.0%2,054
Hillsborough62.8%68,93635.1%38,505
Holmes28.3%33951.7%619
Indian River62.4%6,89735.5%3,926
Jackson53.9%2,79835.5%1,840
Jefferson64.6%1,67129.5%762
Lafayette30.0%29550.9%501
Lake63.5%15,91433.8%8,465
Lee62.7%27,94035.0%15,624
Leon56.5%27,33341.1%19,866
Levy50.0%1,57043.1%1,354
Liberty47.1%31647.1%392
Madison62.4%1,54230.0%741
Manatee62.5%18,11635.1%10,165
Marion62.7%18,22034.1%9,892
Martin59.8%6,52337.6%4,101
Miami-Dade74.7%129,46724.3%42,009
Monroe55.3%4,83042.8%3,739
Nassau56.2%2,91039.8%2,060
Okaloosa52.0%4,55943.1%3,782
Okeechobee55.2%1,15037.6%784
Orange63.8%66,65435.1%36,639
Osceola68.2%16,51230.0%7,273
Palm Beach71.5%103,36927.2%39,314
Pasco58.3%21,76038.9%14,493
Pinellas60.3%63,69937.6%39,742
Polk63.0%29,32833.3%15,473
Putnam49.4%3,18242.7%2,747
Santa Rosa49.2%3,93845.0%3,602
Sarasota61.1%25,88137.3%15,776
Seminole58.3%22,06939.9%15,100
St. Johns57.0%9,73440.7%6,953
St. Lucie66.9%17,55430.8%8,091
Sumter68.1%7,02229.3%3,022
Suwannee42.2%1,47544.3%1,550
Taylor45.9%98342.4%907
Union36.7%33651.6%472
Volusia60.2%26,27637.1%16,170
Wakulla48.9%1,65942.0%1,424
Walton50.0%1,51544.9%1,361
Washington47.1%85842.9%781
Total64.4%1,101,41433.3%568,839

Analysis

Florida was generally viewed as a state Hillary Clinton would win, given her strong performance in previous contests with older voters (who comprised 65% of the Democratic electorate in Florida, the largest in any contest) and non-white voters (who made up 52% of the electorate). Clinton won the Florida Primary by 31 points, winning older voters by a margin of 71-26, and non-white voters by a margin of 74-25. Specifically, she won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 68-32 (who made up 20% of the electorate), and African American voters 81-18 (who comprised 27% of the electorate). Clinton also won white voters by a narrower margin of 53-43. She won across all income and educational attainment levels.[40]

In terms of religious affiliation, Clinton won Protestants in Florida 69-29 (36% of the electorate), Catholics 69-29 (22% of the electorate), and other religious affiliations 68-31 (Jews were 4% of the electorate but were unaccounted for in exit polls). Sanders won voters who identified as agnostic/atheist 56-31. In terms of political ideology, Clinton won liberals 59-41 and moderates/conservatives 70-26. And while Clinton won Democrats 71-28, Sanders won self-identified Independents 55-41.[41]

Clinton won in Miami and along the Gold Coast 73-26, where there is a larger population of Hispanic/Latino voters who in Florida are predominantly of Cuban or Puerto Rican descent. Clinton also won the Gulf Coast and Mid-Florida 64-35, the Tampa Bay Area 63-37, the Orlando area 62-34, and the Northern Panhandle which is whiter, more conservative and more rural by a smaller margin of 58-37.[42]

References

  1. Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results Archived 2016-03-16 at the Wayback Machine.
  2. "ARG Florida Poll March 11-13, 2016".
  3. "March 14, 2016 - Trump Tops Rubio In Florida, Ties Kasich In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders In Two Critical Primaries".
  4. "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  5. "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida".
  6. "Poll: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz split anti-Donald Trump vote in Florida".
  7. "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio".
  8. "Poll: Rubio closing in on Trump in Florida".
  9. "WOMEN DRIVE CLINTON TO 2-1 LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SHE HAS 9-POINT LEAD IN OHIO" (PDF).
  10. "Exclusive Florida Decides Poll: Trump, Clinton lead Florida's presidential primaries".
  11. "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio".
  12. "Washington Post-Univision News Florida Democratic primary survey March 2016". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
  13. "Minority voters help Clinton dominate Sanders in Florida poll". Politico Florida. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
  14. "Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head" (PDF). Public Polling Policy. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  15. "Florida Polling Results". One America News Network. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
  16. "WOMEN GIVE CLINTON BIG LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMOCRATS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; YOUNG VOTERS GO TO SANDERS" (PDF). Quinnipiac. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  17. "The Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. February 6, 2016.
  18. 1 2 "Polls". FAU College of Business. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  19. "Florida Decides Poll: Trump dominates among Florida voters". baynews9.com.
  20. "Polling Institute at Saint Leo University – Ben Carson Nearly Ties with Frontrunner Trump Nationally Among Likely GOP Voters, while Jeb Bush Trails, Nationally and in Florida". Polling Institute at Saint Leo University.
  21. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll". Quinnipiac University. October 7, 2015.
  22. "Florida Down on Bush, Rubio Campaigns" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. 15 September 2015.
  23. "Florida Poll (September 12, 2015)3 (2)". Scribd.
  24. "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump lead in Florida". Retrieved 2015-09-06.
  25. "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  26. "Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Election survey" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-07-30.
  27. "BUSH TOP CHOICE OF STATE GOP VOTERS RUBIO DROPS, WALKER RUNS 3RD – AHEAD OF TRUMP, CLINTON HAS WIDE LEAD AMONG DEMOCRATS". Retrieved 2015-07-24.
  28. "Current Democratic and Republican Polling in Florida – Gravis". Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  29. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06182015_Sk32gth.pdf
  30. Quinnipiac University. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – April 2, 2015 – Bush Slips In Florida, Stalls – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf
  32. "Gravis Insights Florida Political Primary Poll Republican and Democrat". Gravis.
  33. Quinnipiac University. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – – – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  34. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – July 24, 2014 – Obama In Slump, But Clinton Sc – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  35. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_611.pdf
  36. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – May 1, 2014 – Jeb Bush Is Top Dog In Florida – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  37. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – January 31, 2014 – Bridgegate Drives Christie To – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  38. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – November 22, 2013 – Jeb Bush, Clinton Tops In Flor – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  39. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  40. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-08-07.
  41. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  42. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
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