United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008
November 4, 2008

 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 3,419,348 2,031,179
Percentage 61.85% 36.74%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Barack Obama won the race in his home state with a 25.1 percent margin of victory. Prior to the election, every major news organization considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. One of the most reliably blue states in the nation, Illinois has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988, when George H.W. Bush narrowly carried the state. In 2008, continuing that trend, it appeared that a generic Democratic presidential nominee could have easily won Illinois. Thus, it surprised no one that Barack Obama, who represented Illinois in the U.S. Senate, won Illinois in 2008 over Republican John McCain in a landslide victory, clinching near 62 percent of the total vote.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last time a Democrat won the following counties: Boone, Bureau, Cass, Calhoun, Coles, Gallatin, Grundy, Kankakee, Kendall, LaSalle, Macon, Macoupin, Madison, Mason, McDonough, McHenry, McLean, Montgomery, Pulaski, Sangamon, Schuyler, Stephenson, and Vermillion.

Democratic primary

Illinois Democratic Primary, 2008
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)

 
Candidate Barack Obama Hillary Clinton
Home state Illinois New York
Delegate count 104 49
Popular vote 1,318,234 667,930
Percentage 64.66% 32.76%
Results of the Illinois Democratic Primary by County. Dark blue counties were won by Obama; gray counties were won by Clinton.

The Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary took place on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, with 153 delegates at stake. The winner in each of Illinois's 19 congressional districts was awarded all of that district's delegates, totaling 100. Another 53 delegates were awarded to the statewide winner, Barack Obama. The 153 delegates represented Illinois at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado. Thirty-two other unpledged delegates, known as superdelegates, also attended the convention and cast their votes as well.

Polls

Polls indicated that then-U.S. Senator Barack Obama was leading then-U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton by double digits in the days before the contest in his home state of Illinois.[1]

Results

Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary Results – 2008
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Democratic Barack Obama 1,318,234 64.66% 104
Democratic Hillary Clinton 667,930 32.76% 49
Democratic John Edwards 39,719 1.95% 0
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 4,234 0.21% 0
Democratic Joe Biden 3,788 0.19% 0
Democratic Bill Richardson 3,538 0.17% 0
Democratic Christopher Dodd 1,171 0.06% 0
Totals 2,038,614 100.00% 153
Voter turnout % —

Chicago Public Radio reported on March 13, 2008, that the delegate counts were recalculated and Obama won 106 delegates to 47 for Clinton.[2]

During the state by state roll-call at the Democratic National Convention, the Illinois delegation declined to cast their votes.[3]

Analysis

It was no surprise that Barack Obama cruised to a landslide victory in Illinois, the state he had represented in the U.S. Senate since 2005. He enjoyed massive support in his state among all demographics. According to exit polls, 57 percent of voters in the Illinois Democratic Primary were Caucasian and they opted for Obama 57-41; 24 percent of voters were African American and they, too, backed Obama 93-5; and 17 percent of voters in the primary were Hispanic/Latino and they narrowly backed Obama 50-49. Obama won all age groups but tied Clinton among senior citizens aged 65 and over. He won all voters in the state of all educational attainment levels as well as income/socioeconomic classes. He won all ideological groups and voters from both parties as well as self-identified Independents. Regarding religion, Obama won every major denomination except Roman Catholics, who narrowly backed Clinton 50-48 percent. Obama won Protestants by a margin of 58-38, other Christians 79-19, other religions 82-17, and atheists/agnostics 78-21.

Obama performed extremely well statewide and racked up massive victories in his home city of Chicago as well as its suburbs and the metropolitan area. He also won Northern Illinois as well as the collar counties by substantial victories. Clinton’s best performance was in Southern Illinois among the more rural and conservative counties that are majority white, although Obama still won the region as a whole.

Republican primary

Illinois Republican primary, 2008
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)

 
Candidate John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee
Party Republican Republican Republican
Home state Arizona Massachusetts Arkansas
Delegate count 54 3 0
Popular vote 426,777 257,265 148,053
Percentage 47.45% 28.60% 16.46%
2008 Illinois Republican primary county map.
  John McCain
  Mitt Romney
  Mike Huckabee

The Illinois Republican primary, 2008 was held on February 5, 2008. Illinois was one of 24 States holding a primary or caucus on Super Tuesday. Delegates from each of Illinois' 19 congressional districts are selected by direct election. In addition, the primary ballot also contains a preference poll that lists the presidential candidates.

Official Results[4] [5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
John McCain426,77747.45%54
Mitt Romney257,26528.60%3
Mike Huckabee148,05316.46%0
Ron Paul45,0555.01%0
Rudy Giuliani*11,8371.32%0
Fred Thompson*7,2590.81%0
Alan Keyes2,3180.26%0
Jim Mitchell, Jr.4830.05%0
Tom Tancredo*3750.04%0
Total899,422100%57

*Candidate withdrew prior to the primary

Green Party primary

Illinois Green Party primary, 2008
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)

 
Candidate Cynthia McKinney Howie Hawkins
Party Green Green
Home state Georgia New York
Percentage 56.62% 17.37%
 
Candidate Kent Mesplay Jared A. Ball
Party Green Green
Home state California
Percentage 14.37% 11.64%

The Illinois chapter of the Green Party held a presidential primary on February 5.

Illinois delegation at the 2008 Green Party National Convention
Illinois Green Party presidential primary, February 5, 2008[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Cynthia McKinney - 56.62% -
Howie Hawkins 17.37% -
Kent Mesplay - 14.37% -
Jared A. Ball - 11.64% -
Total - 100% -

General election campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[7]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat[8]
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama[9]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[10]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[11]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[12]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[13]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[14]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[12]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[15]
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat[16]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[17]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[12]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama[12]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[18]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[19]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[20]

Polling

Obama won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double-digit margin and with at least 52% (with the exception of an ARG poll). The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 60% to 35%.[21]

Fundraising

Obama raised $35,307,625. McCain raised $7,207,428.[22]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $23,319. McCain and interest groups spent $52,865.[23] The Democratic ticket visited the state 13 times. McCain's ticket visited the state twice.[24]

Analysis

For most of the second half of the 20th century, Illinois was reckoned as a Republican-leaning swing state. It voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1988, save for 1960 and 1964. However, George H. W. Bush just barely won the state in 1988, and it swung heavily to Bill Clinton and the Democrats in 1992. Since then, Democrats have won the state by fairly comfortable margins, and it is now reckoned as the most solidly Democratic state in the Midwest.

The blue trend in the Land of Lincoln in presidential elections can be largely attributed to Cook County, home to Chicago, which makes up about 41.2% of the state's total population.[25] While Chicago has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, the suburban areas of Cook County have historically tilted Republican. The brand of Republicanism in the suburbs, however, has historically been a moderate one, and these areas swung Democratic as the national party moved more to the right. Democrats also do very well in the Illinois portions of the Quad Cities and St. Louis areas. Additionally, the historically Republican collar counties near Chicago – DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane, and Will – have become friendlier to Democrats at the national level.

Barack Obama, the junior U.S. Senator from Illinois at the time of the election, carried the state handily, defeating John McCain of Arizona by a margin of 1.38 million votes. Obama carried his home county, Cook County, with roughly 76 percent of the vote, the highest percentage of any presidential candidate since its incorporation in 1831. He also swept all five collar counties, becoming the first Democratic candidate since Franklin Pierce in 1852 to so, with DuPage, Kendall, Lake and Will giving him double-digit margins. Notably, DuPage and McHenry had not supported a Democrat for president since that election.[26]

Obama also did very well in several rural counties that historically voted Republican. He became the first Democrat to win Carroll County since that county was created in 1839, in the process breaking the last remaining Republican streak stretching from initial GOP candidate John C. Frémont in the 1856 election, and the first Democrat to win Boone County since James K. Polk in 1844. McCain did, however, win several of the more rural counties in Southern Illinois. It was not nearly enough, however, to put a serious dent in Obama’s 25-point margin in the state.[27]

During the same election, senior U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, a Democrat, was reelected to the U.S. Senate with 67.84% of the vote over Republican Dr. Steve Sauerberg who received 28.53%. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the Illinois House of Representatives.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last presidential election that a Democrat won all of Chicago's collar counties.

Results

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 3,419,348 61.85% 21
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,031,179 36.74% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 31,152 0.56% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 19,642 0.36% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 11,838 0.21% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 8,256 0.15% 0
Write-Ins Write-ins 7,084 0.13% 0
Totals 5,528,499 100.00% 21
Voter turnout 58.1%

By county

CountyObama%Obama#McCain%McCain#
Adams38%11,70061%18,592
Alexander56%2,18943%1,692
Bond48%3,83250%3,938
Boone51%11,32447%10,396
Brown38%98560%1,541
Bureau52%8,87246%7,902
Calhoun53%1,42145%1,221
Carroll52%3,95647%3,589
Cass50%2,69048%2,617
Champaign58%48,35140%33,748
Christian46%6,91252%7,869
Clark45%3,73753%4,406
Clay38%2,42361%3,924
Clinton44%7,65354%9,348
Coles51%11,70448%10,962
Cook76%1,608,87023%482,395
Crawford43%3,87756%5,067
Cumberland39%2,05259%3,155
DeKalb58%25,76541%18,260
DeWitt42%3,29956%4,345
Douglas39%3,22660%5,001
DuPage55%227,41644%182,860
Edgar45%3,73753%4,393
Edwards34%1,14064%2,136
Effingham31%5,25667%11,313
Fayette41%3,96357%5,493
Ford35%2,22664%4,075
Franklin48%8,87350%9,390
Fulton60%9,72238%6,244
Gallatin56%1,58742%1,211
Greene45%2,61753%3,048
Grundy49%9,13449%9,144
Hamilton42%1,79455%2,353
Hancock43%3,75355%4,778
Hardin40%89259%1,330
Henderson58%2,21340%1,540
Henry53%13,17745%11,247
Iroquois34%4,64064%8,686
Jackson60%15,19938%9,665
Jasper40%2,06358%2,963
Jefferson44%7,46054%9,293
Jersey48%5,03650%5,320
JoDaviess54%6,39244%5,163
Johnson31%1,47767%3,138
Kane55%105,59244%84,223
Kankakee52%24,71947%22,508
Kendall53%23,52946%20,675
Knox59%14,16539%9,396
Lake56%111,05143%85,284
LaSalle55%27,41544%21,855
Lawrence46%3,01352%3,401
Lee48%7,75751%8,243
Livingston40%6,18459%9,180
Logan41%5,24558%7,424
Macon50%25,41949%24,901
Macoupin54%12,07144%9,879
Madison54%68,83645%57,059
Marion48%8,33450%8,687
Marshall49%3,07850%3,142
Mason52%3,54046%3,139
Massac37%2,69361%4,371
McDonough52%6,78046%6,047
McHenry52%71,97647%64,595
McLean50%37,55149%36,657
Menard42%2,70457%3,672
Mercer55%4,88543%3,830
Monroe44%7,94355%9,870
Montgomery50%6,48648%6,141
Morgan49%7,45849%7,585
Moultrie43%2,66355%3,466
Ogle45%11,24753%13,131
Peoria56%44,39642%33,018
Perry47%4,69751%5,077
Piatt43%3,85655%4,988
Pike40%3,02159%4,451
Pope38%84260%1,339
Pulaski50%1,63649%1,592
Putnam57%1,90041%1,376
Randolph49%7,38750%7,536
Richland42%3,17757%4,320
Rock Island62%42,17537%25,338
Saline44%5,08253%6,096
Sangamon51%51,17647%46,857
Schuyler50%1,89648%1,830
Scott42%1,09056%1,453
Shelby39%4,23659%6,390
St. Clair62%77,89637%47,005
Stark47%1,35752%1,513
Stephenson52%11,01046%9,686
Tazewell46%29,33552%33,203
Union43%3,91655%4,999
Vermilion49%16,22849%16,046
Wabash43%2,46256%3,252
Warren53%4,28645%3,637
Washington42%3,33856%4,468
Wayne32%2,54567%5,381
White44%3,31553%3,985
Whiteside58%15,58740%10,867
Will56%154,69143%119,049
Williamson42%12,89356%17,351
Winnebago55%69,90343%53,806
Woodford36%6,96963%12,137

By congressional district

Favorite son Barack Obama won 16 of the state’s 19 congressional districts, including all districts held by Democrats and four districts held by Republicans.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 12.93% 86.53% Bobby Rush
2nd 9.86% 89.68% Jesse Jackson Jr.
3rd 35.08% 63.60% Dan Lipinski
4th 13.22% 85.44% Luis Gutierrez
5th 26.22% 72.82% Rahm Emanuel (110th Congress)
Mike Quigley (111th Congress)
6th 42.76% 55.91% Peter Roskam
7th 11.57% 87.77% Danny K. Davis
8th 42.86% 55.74% Melissa Bean
9th 26.43% 72.34% Jan Schakowsky
10th 38.13% 60.92% Mark Kirk
11th 45.14% 53.32% Jerry Weller (110th Congress)
Debbie Halvorson (111th Congress)
12th 42.89% 55.49% Jerry Costello
13th 44.60% 54.21% Judy Biggert
14th 43.77% 54.83% Dennis Hastert (110th Congress)
Bill Foster (111th Congress)
15th 50.43% 47.82% Timothy V. Johnson
16th 45.52% 52.78% Donald Manzullo
17th 42.15% 56.39% Philip Hare
18th 50.03% 48.32% Ray LaHood (110th Congress)
Aaron Schock (111th Congress)
19th 54.25% 43.98% John Shimkus

Electors

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[29]

  1. Constance A. Howard
  2. Carrie Austin
  3. Shirley R. Madigan
  4. Ricardo Muñoz
  5. James DeLeo
  6. Marge Friedman
  7. Vera Davis
  8. Nancy Shepardson
  9. William Marovitz
  10. Lauren Beth Gash
  11. Debbie Halvorson
  12. Molly McKenzie
  13. Julia Kennedy Beckman
  14. Mark Guethle
  15. Lynn Foster
  16. John M. Nelson
  17. Mary Boland
  18. Shirley McCombs
  19. Don Johnston
  20. Barbara Flynn Currie
  21. John P. Daley

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Illinois Democratic Primary". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2008-02-04.
  2. ↑ "Clinton Loses Two Illinois Delegates". Chicago Public Radio (WBEZ). Archived from the original on 2008-03-14. Retrieved 2008-04-02.
  3. ↑ "Roll Call Vote - 27 August 2008".
  4. ↑ "General Primary - 2/5/2008". 2008-02-05. Archived from the original on 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2008-05-24.
  5. ↑ "Illinois Republican Delegation 2008". Retrieved 2009-07-05.
  6. ↑ "Major Third Party 2008 Presidential Primary". www.thegreenpapers.com. The Green Papers. 2008. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
  7. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  8. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  9. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  10. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  11. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  12. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  13. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  14. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  15. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  16. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  17. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  18. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  19. ↑ roadto270
  20. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  21. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  22. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  23. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  24. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  25. ↑ "Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau". Retrieved 2008-12-13.
  26. ↑ Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  27. ↑ "Illinois State Board of Elections - 2008 General Election - Comma delimited text". Retrieved 2008-12-01.
  28. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  29. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates
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