United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
November 4, 2008

 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985
Percentage 57.4% 41.1%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 8 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe red state. In the primaries Hillary Clinton was slightly defeating McCain in the hypothetical polls for the Bluegrass State. Once Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was moved into the safe GOP category. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with over 57% of the vote. This was the first time since 1960 when Kentucky did not vote for the winning candidate in a presidential election. This was the first time ever that Floyd and Knott counties voted for the Republican candidate.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.[16] Each ticket visited the state once.[17]

Analysis

Although Democrats have a majority of Kentucky's voters, the state has traditionally leaned conservative. Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago.

Throughout the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Barack Obama experienced problems attracting voters in Appalachia, the mountainous region in which Kentucky is included. Kentucky supported Hillary Clinton over Obama by a margin of two-to-one in its primary election in which Obama only won just two counties - Jefferson County, which includes Louisville, and Fayette County, which contains Lexington. Exit polls conducted in the Kentucky Democratic Primary also found that just one out of three Clinton voters would vote for Obama in the general election, while 40% said they would vote for John McCain, and the rest wouldn't even vote.[18]

During the general election, Obama opted not to campaign in Kentucky and preferred to spend his time and money and other resources in battleground states such as North Carolina and Indiana. Opinion polling in Kentucky showed McCain leading the state safely over Obama.[19]

McCain carried Kentucky by 16.22 points on Election Day, although his margin of victory was slightly smaller than George W. Bush's in 2004. A number of counties in the state's southeastern coal-mining region, a union stronghold for more than a century, voted Republican for the first time ever, including staunchly Democratic Floyd County, KY and Knott County, KY. These counties had been the bedrock of Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories. On the other hand, Obama did much better in the largest cities of Louisville and Lexington, improving upon Kerry's performance by double-digits in both.

Kentucky was the first state called for John McCain on Election Night. It was called almost as soon as the polls closed, an hour after Vermont was the first state called for Barack Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also served as Senate Minority Leader at the time, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rowan County, Hancock County, Menifee County, Wolfe County, and Henderson County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.37% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.15% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0
Totals 1,827,586 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

Results breakdown

By county

CountyObama%Obama#McCain%McCain#Totals#
Adair25.51%1,88874.49%5,5127,298
Allen27.78%2,02372.22%5,2587,390
Anderson33.46%3,46166.54%6,88410,552
Ballard36.00%1,42764.00%2,5374,060
Barren32.80%5,43467.20%11,13316,807
Bath49.73%2,21050.27%2,2344,543
Bell28.99%2,78269.61%6,6819,598
Boone32.52%16,29267.48%33,81250,774
Bourbon41.26%3,38558.74%4,8208,330
Boyd43.74%8,88656.26%11,42920,670
Boyle38.23%4,76461.77%7,69712,635
Bracken37.53%1,24162.47%2,0663,399
Breathitt45.22%2,20554.78%2,6715,030
Breckinridge37.06%3,11062.94%5,2818,522
Bullitt33.12%10,17765.42%20,10230,726
Butler29.61%1,55570.39%3,6965,307
Caldwell36.39%2,21263.61%3,8666,199
Calloway40.68%6,16559.32%8,99115,404
Campbell39.38%15,61960.62%24,04540,297
Carlisle34.10%87965.90%1,6992,617
Carroll45.78%1,71654.22%2,0323,835
Carter45.10%4,31454.90%5,2529,813
Casey20.67%1,21979.33%4,6795,957
Christian39.50%8,82260.50%13,51522,778
Clark37.30%5,74962.70%9,66415,628
Clay21.37%1,55278.63%5,7107,364
Clinton18.44%76181.56%3,3664,172
Crittenden32.50%1,25467.50%2,6043,930
Cumberland25.32%69774.68%2,0562,797
Daviess44.87%19,28255.13%23,69243,622
Edmonson31.68%1,65268.32%3,5625,270
Elliott62.99%1,53537.01%9022,515
Estill29.68%1,55570.32%3,6855,314
Fayette52.44%66,04047.56%59,884127,648
Fleming39.91%2,27960.09%3,4325,832
Floyd49.31%7,53050.69%7,74115,659
Franklin49.70%11,76750.30%11,91124,079
Fulton44.48%1,22655.52%1,5302,825
Gallatin40.99%1,27859.01%1,8403,193
Garrard28.22%2,01271.78%5,1177,210
Grant35.68%3,10964.32%5,6058,754
Graves36.75%5,84363.25%10,05616,155
Grayson32.32%3,15467.68%6,6059,903
Green24.13%1,20475.87%3,7855,079
Greenup42.80%6,62157.20%8,84915,798
Hancock52.52%2,12847.48%1,9244,144
Hardin39.57%15,65060.43%23,89639,990
Harlan26.52%2,58673.48%7,1659,914
Harrison39.21%2,91660.79%4,5207,590
Hart34.25%2,29065.75%4,3976,818
Henderson51.34%10,04948.66%9,52319,861
Henry40.03%2,72459.97%4,0816,919
Hickman36.61%81263.39%1,4062,250
Hopkins37.35%7,10462.65%11,91619,348
Jackson14.43%74385.57%4,4075,224
Jefferson56.06%196,27243.94%153,865354,936
Jessamine31.26%6,23668.74%13,71020,214
Johnson28.81%2,41371.19%5,9648,517
Kenton38.82%26,48059.69%40,71468,213
Knott46.10%2,52353.90%2,9505,820
Knox27.39%3,07472.61%8,15011,389
LaRue31.54%1,91368.46%4,1536,178
Laurel20.73%4,59379.27%17,56322,500
Lawrence36.76%2,03663.24%3,5035,649
Lee27.55%75272.45%1,9782,773
Leslie17.65%76682.35%3,5744,397
Letcher32.83%2,62367.17%5,3678,235
Lewis31.97%1,51068.03%3,2134,791
Lincoln30.49%2,75269.51%6,2739,151
Livingston35.95%1,62264.05%2,8904,593
Logan35.50%3,81164.50%6,92510,890
Lyon41.53%1,57758.47%2,2203,855
Madison38.62%12,39261.38%19,69432,537
Magoffin46.38%2,10553.62%2,4344,651
Marion48.35%3,59651.65%3,8427,615
Marshall37.15%5,59362.85%9,46315,487
Martin22.25%80877.75%2,8243,692
Mason41.34%2,89158.66%4,1027,121
McCracken37.21%11,28562.79%19,04330,754
McCreary23.58%1,25876.42%4,0785,407
McLean45.14%1,96354.86%2,3864,422
Meade39.36%4,34360.64%6,69111,206
Menifee52.49%1,27647.51%1,1552,489
Mercer31.78%3,15968.22%6,78110,060
Metcalfe33.06%1,35066.94%2,7344,199
Monroe23.18%1,06776.82%3,5374,665
Montgomery41.59%4,23458.41%5,94710,331
Morgan43.87%1,85856.13%2,3774,379
Muhlenberg49.11%6,22150.89%6,44712,889
Nelson43.02%7,65456.98%10,13918,146
Nicholas43.77%1,27256.23%1,6342,970
Ohio41.25%4,05958.75%5,7819,938
Oldham34.48%9,99665.52%18,99229,316
Owen36.33%1,69463.67%2,9694,751
Owsley22.95%38177.05%1,2791,686
Pendleton35.54%2,02764.46%3,6765,802
Perry33.74%3,44466.26%6,76210,375
Pike42.92%9,52557.08%12,66522,643
Powell41.87%2,06558.13%2,8674,972
Pulaski21.96%5,59078.04%19,86225,766
Robertson45.83%45154.17%5331,015
Rockcastle22.86%1,41077.14%4,7576,274
Rowan51.05%4,07448.95%3,9078,154
Russell21.69%1,57978.31%5,7027,475
Scott39.56%7,71260.44%11,78219,730
Shelby37.50%6,87162.50%11,45118,540
Simpson38.48%2,77561.52%4,4377,309
Spencer31.90%2,51968.10%5,3788,049
Taylor29.49%3,16570.51%7,56810,860
Todd31.63%1,54368.37%3,3364,941
Trigg34.90%2,24665.10%4,1896,527
Trimble39.86%1,48460.14%2,2393,812
Union47.33%2,80452.67%3,1206,034
Warren40.48%17,65059.52%25,95744,145
Washington36.38%1,89063.62%3,3055,275
Wayne31.14%2,20168.86%4,8687,196
Webster44.04%2,39055.96%3,0375,540
Whitley25.81%3,48474.19%10,01413,704
Wolfe51.47%1,49348.53%1,4082,968
Woodford41.35%5,02758.65%7,13012,297
Totals41.15%751,98557.37%1,048,4621,827,587

By congressional district

John McCain carried five of the state's six congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.85% 36.60% Ed Whitfield
2nd 60.54% 38.03% Ron Lewis (110th Congress)
Brett Guthrie (111th Congress)
3rd 43.36% 55.66% John Yarmuth
4th 60.41% 37.96% Geoff Davis
5th 67.01% 31.24% Hal Rogers
6th 55.41% 43.22% Ben Chandler

Electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[21]

  1. James Henry Snider
  2. Walter A. Baker
  3. Edna M. Fulkerson
  4. Amy B. Towles
  5. Nancy Mitchell
  6. Don Ball
  7. Robert Gable
  8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  7. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  8. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  9. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ↑ roadto270
  13. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  14. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  16. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Top of the Ticket". Los Angeles Times. May 20, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Kentucky". Retrieved 2008-12-19.
  20. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  21. ↑ Kentucky's electors » Archive » Evening News and Tribune
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