United States presidential election in Idaho, 2008

United States presidential election in Idaho, 2008
November 4, 2008

 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 403,012 236,440
Percentage 61.2% 35.9%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Idaho was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 25.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Polling in the state gave a very comfortable lead to Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, sometimes by a margin of at least 30 percent, the most being 43 percent. Idaho was largely considered a safely Republican state, as it has not gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican[2]
  3. Takeaway: Solid McCain[3]
  4. Election Projection: Solid McCain[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Republican[5]
  6. Washington Post: Solid McCain[6]
  7. Politico: Solid McCain[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid McCain[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Republican[9]
  11. New York Times: Solid Republican[10]
  12. CNN: Safe Republican[11]
  13. NPR: Solid Republican[6]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Republican[6]
  15. Fox News: Republican[12]
  16. Associated Press: Republican[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican[14]

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, each with a double-digit margin and with at least 52%. The final 3 poll average gave the Republican 66% to 29%.[15]

Fundraising

Obama raised $874,523. McCain raised $441,338.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $268. McCain spent $434.[17] Neither campaign visited the state.[18]

Analysis

With a substantial Mormon population, Idaho is one of the most reliably GOP bastions in the country. Although Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 to eclipse 35 percent of the vote in solidly red state Idaho,[19] the state was still won handily by John McCain by a margin of approximately 25.34 percent. McCain carried 41 of the state’s 44 counties, with Obama winning Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow, and Teton County, a highly affluent suburb of Teton County, Wyoming. Obama was the first and only Democrat to carry Teton County since Harry S. Truman in 1948.[20] While Obama did not carry Ada County, he did carry the state capital and city of Boise. McCain’s victory in Idaho, however, was less than that of George W. Bush who carried the state with 68.38% of the vote in 2004, a 12.78-percent swing to the Democrats in Idaho.

With 61.21% of the popular vote, Idaho proved to be McCain's fourth strongest state in 2008 election after Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah[21].

During the same election, Republicans held onto the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Larry Craig who reluctantly retired after it was revealed that he had solicited a man for sex in the men’s restroom at an airport in Minneapolis. Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, a Republican, was elected with 57.65% of the vote over Democrat Larry LaRocco who received 34.11%. A pro-life independent candidate received 5.35% while Libertarian Kent Marmon received 1.54% and Rex Rammell, a far right-wing candidate who also ran as an Independent, received 1.34%.

At the state level, Republicans expanded their supermajority status in the Idaho state legislature as they picked up one seat in the Idaho House of Representatives.

Results

United States presidential election in Idaho, 2008[22]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 403,012 61.21% 4
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 236,440 35.91% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 7,175 1.09% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,747 0.72% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 3,658 0.56% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 3,340 0.51% 0
American Independent (Write-in) Alan Keyes (Write-in) Brian Rohrbough 40 0.01% 0
Green (Write-in) Cynthia McKinney (Write-in) Rosa Clemente 39 0.01% 0
Socialist (Write-in) Brian Moore (Write-in) Stewart Alexander 3 0.00% 0
Totals 658,454 100.00% 4
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 60.1%

Results breakdown

By county

CountyObama%Obama#McCain%McCain#
Ada46.90%8202353.10%92879
Adams32.46%72867.54%1515
Bannock43.32%1479256.68%19356
Bear Lake17.44%50282.56%2377
Benewah34.72%140765.28%2646
Bingham26.56%442473.44%12230
Blaine66.89%694733.11%3439
Boise33.76%124066.24%2433
Bonner41.30%784058.70%11145
Bonneville28.02%1141571.98%29324
Boundary32.24%147467.76%3098
Butte23.14%31876.86%1056
Camas30.71%18769.29%422
Canyon32.03%2014767.97%42752
Caribou17.23%55382.77%2656
Cassia17.30%130582.70%6240
Clark17.34%6482.66%305
Clearwater32.04%121167.96%2569
Custer26.68%62073.32%1704
Elmore31.17%252368.83%5571
Franklin12.40%59987.60%4231
Fremont18.47%106581.53%4700
Gem27.94%216672.06%5585
Gooding28.29%148571.71%3764
Idaho24.71%193575.29%5895
Jefferson16.12%164183.88%8540
Jerome26.81%179473.19%4897
Kootenai36.56%2212063.44%38387
Latah53.51%919146.49%7984
Lemhi21.32%79678.68%2938
Lewis27.31%47972.69%1275
Lincoln33.95%49766.05%967
Madison12.75%162587.25%11120
Minidoka22.24%113777.76%3976
Nez Perce40.75%712359.25%10357
Oneida18.10%38181.90%1724
Owyhee23.79%94476.21%3024
Payette28.74%241571.26%5988
Power36.93%102763.07%1754
Shoshone46.05%252153.95%2953
Teton50.43%230249.57%2263
Twin Falls31.18%862168.82%19032
Valley46.54%239453.46%2750
Washington28.15%124171.85%3168

By congressional district

John McCain solidly swept both of Idaho’s two congressional districts.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.82% 35.88% Bill Sali (110th Congress)
Walt Minnick (111th Congress)
2nd 61.19% 36.34% Mike Simpson

Electors

Technically the voters of Idaho cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Idaho is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All four were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[24]

  1. Darlene Bramon
  2. Ben Doty
  3. John Erickson
  4. Melinda Smyser

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  8. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  9. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  10. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  11. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  12. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  13. ↑ roadto270
  14. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  15. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  18. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  19. ↑ 1988 Presidential General Election Results - Idaho
  20. ↑ The Political Graveyard; Teton County, Idaho
  21. ↑ "2008 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2018-03-05.
  22. ↑ "Atlas of U.S. Presidential Election Results 2008 - Idaho". Retrieved 2013-01-12.
  23. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  24. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates

See also

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