United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016

November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,012,940 2,184,693
Percentage 54.9% 39.8%

County Results
Duckworth:
     40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kirk:
     40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Mark Kirk
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Party primary elections in Illinois were held March 15, 2016. Republicans selected incumbent Senator Mark Kirk for re-election to a second term.[1] Democrats selected Tammy Duckworth, a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War and the congresswoman representing Illinois's 8th congressional district.

Background

In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[2] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[3][4] but there was speculation that he might retire,[5] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[6][7] One scenario mooted about was that Kirk would resign, allowing Republican Governor Bruce Rauner to appoint a replacement.[8] Potential replacements included U.S. Representatives Robert Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[5][7] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[1]

Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election in 2016.[9][10][11][12][13][14]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed from ballot

Withdrawn

  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor[18][19]

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Kirk
State politicians
Newspapers
James Marter
Individuals
Organizations
  • ALIPAC (Americans for Legal Immigration PAC)[35]
  • Chicago 11th Ward Republican Party[36]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk
James
Marter
Other Undecided
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 306 ± 5.6% 53% 14% 33%
Chicago Tribune[37] March 2–6, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 65% 22% 12%

Results

United States Senate election in Illinois Republican Primary, 2016[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mark Kirk (Incumbent) 931,619 70.6 +14.0
Republican James T. Marter 388,571 29.4 N/A
Majority 543,048 41.2 +3.9
Turnout 1,320,190 +77.9

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Tammy Duckworth
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Andrea Zopp
U.S. Representatives
Notable individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tammy
Duckworth
Andrea
Zopp
Napoleon
Harris
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 409 ± 4.9% 59% 10% 31%
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 422 ± 4.7% 52% 6% 4% 37%

Results

Democratic primary results[79]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 1,220,128 64.38%
Democratic Andrea Zopp 455,729 24.05%
Democratic Napoleon Harris 219,286 11.57%
Total votes 1,859,257 100.00%

Third party candidates

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely: the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[80] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin are likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[81][82]

Constitution Party (C) (Write in)

  • Chad Koppie, farmer and Vice President of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees

Libertarian Party (L)

Green Party (G)

Independent (I)

  • Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer

General election

  • Mark Kirk (R), incumbent Senator
  • Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. Representative
  • Chad Koppie (C) (Write-in)
  • Kent McMillen (L)
  • Scott Summers (G)

Debates

Campaign

The odds were stacked against Sen. Kirk, as no Republican had won an Illinois senate race during a presidential election year since 1972. The campaign was marked by a series of gaffes by the Kirk campaign. First, he falsified his Iraq War record on his campaign website. [84] Second, during the first debate, Sen. Kirk made a racially charged remark about Rep. Duckworth's familial military background. [85] Combined with an ineffective campaign, running with President Trump at the top of the ticket in Democratic Illinois, and his decision to criticize [86] and run away from Trump, Sen. Kirk alienated Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters in Illinois which he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign.

Endorsements

Mark Kirk
Governors
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Senators
State Representatives
Statewide officials
Mayors
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Tammy Duckworth
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[112] Lean D September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113] Likely D September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[114] Lean D September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[115] Safe D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[116] Likely D November 1, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Other Undecided
We Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
Ogden & Fry June 23, 2015 598 ± 4.1% 27% 44% 29%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 36% 42% 22%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 948 ± 3.2% 41% 45% 14%
GS Strategy Group March 30–31, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43% 17%
Basswood Research (R) July 11–12, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 42% 40% 18%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) July 11–14, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 38% 40% 22%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research July 14–16, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 37% 46% 4% 12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) August 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 44% 19%
Loras College September 13–16, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 41% 22%
Emerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 39% 41% 11% 9%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) September 27–29, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 46% 17%
Southern Illinois University Sept 27 – October 2, 2016 865 ± 3.3% 34% 48% 8% 10%
GS Strategy Group October 4–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 41% 6% 16%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research October 16–18, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 39% 50% 3% 8%
Loras College October 26–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 34% 42% 6% 18%
Emerson College October 27–30, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 36% 54% 5% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,003 ± 4.6% 38% 57% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26 – November 1, 2016 911 ± 4.6% 39% 55% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27 – November 2, 2016 997 ± 4.6% 40% 55% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28 – November 3, 2016 1,120 ± 4.6% 40% 54% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31 – November 6, 2016 1,505 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
  • * Internal poll for Mark Kirk campaign.

Results

Democratic U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth easily defeated the Republican incumbent senator Mark Kirk. Polls showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — failed to deliver for the incumbent, and they easily went for Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017.

The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016[117]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 3,012,940 54.9 +8.5
Republican Mark Kirk (Incumbent) 2,184,692 39.8 -8.2
Libertarian Kenton McMillen 175,988 3.2 +0.8
Green Scott Summers 117,619 2.1 -1.1
Write-in Chad Koppie 408 .007 N/A
Write-in Jim Brown 106 .002 N/A
Write-in Christopher Aguayo 77 .001 N/A
Write-in Susana Sandoval 42 .0008 N/A
Write-in Eric Kufi James Stewart 5 .00009 N/A
Write-in Patricia Beard 1 .00002 N/A
Majority 828,248 15.1 +13.5
Turnout 5,491,878 +48.2
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

References

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  2. Ed O'Keefe (January 3, 2013). "Mark Kirk makes dramatic return to the Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
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  66. 1 2 Schow, Ashe (September 30, 2015). "Tammy Duckworth changes her tune on Benghazi". Washington Examiner. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  67. 1 2 Sweet, Lynn (June 4, 2015). "Sen. Durbin endorses Rep. Duckworth's Senate bid". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 5, 2015.
  68. 1 2 Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
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  71. 1 2 "Morning Spin: Duckworth snags teachers union endorsement in U.S. Senate race". Chicago Tribune. February 1, 2016. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
  72. 1 2 Sweet, Lynn (April 30, 2015). "EMILY's List endorses Duckworth; not waiting for Kelly, Zopp". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved April 30, 2015.
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  76. Riopell, Mike (January 22, 2016). "Jesse Jackson to back Zopp for Senate over Duckworth, Harris". Daily Herald. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
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  80. "June 27 is the deadline for Illinois petitions. Besides the Libertarian and Green statewide petitions, the Constitution Party and the Socialist Party also submitted presidential petitions. The latter two did not have as many as 25,000 signatures. However, if no one challenges them, they will be considered valid. A fifth petition was filed by a presidential candidate named Mary Vann, using the label "Human Rights Party"". Ballot Access News. June 27, 2016. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
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  85. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/tammy-duckworth-mark-kirk-military-illinois-debate-senate/index.html. Retrieved July 17, 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  86. http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-mark-kirk-2016-10. Retrieved July 17, 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
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  88. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-mark-kirk-donald-trump-met-0608-20160607-story.html. Retrieved September 17, 2016. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  89. Sweet, Lynn (October 13, 2016). "Mitt Romney headlining fundraiser for Sen. Mark Kirk in Chicago". suntimes.com. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
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  92. 1 2 Sweet, Lynn (December 13, 2015). "Senators Cornyn, Capito fundraising for Mark Kirk". suntimes.com. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
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  98. "Mark Kirk on Twitter". twitter.com. October 3, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
  99. "Endorsement: Mark Kirk over Tammy Duckworth for Senate". dailyherald.com. October 15, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
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  102. "Kirk has earned a second term as U.S. senator". Herald-Whig. October 9, 2016.
  103. "Endorsement: US Senate, Mark Kirk". Journal Star. October 21, 2016.
  104. Gass, Nick (August 22, 2016). "Giffords' anti-gun violence PAC endorses Toomey, Kirk". politico.com. Retrieved August 23, 2016.
  105. "Mark Kirk". 2016 Endorsements. Washington, D.C.: Humane Society Legislative Fund. Retrieved October 14, 2016. Voters in Illinois who care about animal welfare should support Sen. Kirk for re-election. ... HSLF notes that Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., has also been a strong supporter of animal protection
  106. Mark Kirk [@MarkKirk] (October 11, 2016). "I'm proud of my endorsement from the @HSLegFund and my support from furry friends across #IL. #ilsen" (Tweet). Retrieved October 14, 2016 via Twitter.
  107. 1 2 Bendery, Jennifer (April 6, 2016). "Obama, Biden endorse Tammy Duckworth for Senate". Huffington Post. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  108. Hagen, Lisa (April 29, 2016). "Elizabeth Warren stumps, raises funds for Duckworth". The Hill. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  109. "Endorsement: Tammy Duckworth for U.S. Senate from Illinois". Chicago Tribune. October 14, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  110. Palmer, Bill (March 26, 2016). "Daily News Bin endorses Tammy Duckworth over Mark Kirk in 2016 Senate race in Illinois". Daily News Bin. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  111. Morin, Rebecca (October 29, 2016). "Human Rights Campaign revokes Mark Kirk endorsement". Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
  112. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  113. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  114. "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
  115. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  116. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  117. "Election Results GENERAL ELECTION - 11/8/2016". Illinois State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
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