United States presidential election in Kansas, 2004

United States presidential election in Kansas, 2004
November 2, 2004

 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 736,456 434,993
Percentage 62.0% 36.6%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Kansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 25.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. On election day, it trended Republican from the 2000 election by a swing margin of almost 5%. He won every single congressional district and county, excluding just 2: Wyandotte County and Douglas County.

Caucuses

  • Kansas Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 56% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 58% to 37% for Kerry and 3% for Nader.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $980,035.[3] Kerry raised $387,484.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither presidential candidate advertised or visited this state. However, John Edwards visited the city of Lawrence in Douglas County briefly. [5][6]

Analysis

Kansas has always been a Republican stronghold at the presidential level, voting for GOP nominees in all but seven elections since statehood. The last Democratic presidential nominee to carry the Sunflower State was Lyndon B. Johnson in his landslide election in 1964. A combination of rural counties embedded with deep pockets of evangelical Christianity/social conservatism and moderate, fiscally conservative residents in Johnson County, Kansas nearly always votes Republican.

Results

United States presidential election in Kansas, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 736,456 62.0% 6
Democratic John Kerry 434,993 36.6% 0
Reform Party Ralph Nader 9,348 0.8% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik 4,013 0.3% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka 2,899 0.2% 0
Write In David Cobb 33 0.0% 0
Write In John Joseph Kennedy 5 0.0% 0
Write In Bill Van Auken 5 0.0% 0
Write In Walt Brown 4 0.0% 0
Totals 1,187,756 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 58.6%

Results breakdown

By county

CountyBush #Bush %Kerry #Kerry %Others #Others %Total
Allen County, Kansas3,80865.92%1,88532.63%841.45%5,777
Anderson County, Kansas2,49064.74%1,29133.57%651.69%3,846
Atchison County, Kansas3,76954.54%3,02843.81%1141.65%6,911
Barber County, Kansas1,74973.89%58524.71%331.39%2,367
Barton County, Kansas8,54574.00%2,83724.57%1651.43%11,547
Bourbon County, Kansas4,26865.36%2,16733.19%951.45%6,530
Brown County, Kansas3,03470.18%1,23428.54%551.27%4,323
Butler County, Kansas16,33171.26%6,29227.46%2931.28%22,916
Chase County, Kansas1,04370.28%41327.83%281.89%1,484
Chautauqua County, Kansas1,49677.84%40020.81%261.35%1,922
Cherokee County, Kansas6,04561.38%3,69437.51%1091.11%9,848
Cheyenne County, Kansas1,34680.02%31718.85%191.13%1,682
Clark County, Kansas99878.46%25419.97%201.57%1,272
Clay County, Kansas3,11979.20%77719.73%421.07%3,938
Cloud County, Kansas3,13471.49%1,17926.89%711.62%4,384
Coffey County, Kansas3,20473.93%1,07624.83%541.25%4,334
Comanche County, Kansas76578.54%19820.33%111.13%974
Cowley County, Kansas9,23765.06%4,74733.44%2131.50%14,197
Crawford County, Kansas8,42352.09%7,47046.20%2771.71%16,170
Decatur County, Kansas1,35477.86%35520.41%301.73%1,739
Dickinson County, Kansas6,18671.69%2,31626.84%1271.47%8,629
Doniphan County, Kansas2,46069.24%1,04929.52%441.24%3,553
Douglas County, Kansas19,92341.44%27,28256.74%8751.82%48,080
Edwards County, Kansas1,07272.43%38325.88%251.69%1,480
Elk County, Kansas1,11473.87%36724.34%271.79%1,508
Ellis County, Kansas7,68364.70%3,93833.16%2542.14%11,875
Ellsworth County, Kansas2,24672.90%79425.77%411.33%3,081
Finney County, Kansas7,36175.39%2,30323.59%1001.02%9,764
Ford County, Kansas6,41373.66%2,19525.21%981.13%8,706
Franklin County, Kansas7,27864.34%3,87434.25%1591.41%11,311
Geary County, Kansas4,55364.33%2,43634.42%891.26%7,078
Gove County, Kansas1,18281.46%24516.88%241.65%1,451
Graham County, Kansas1,06775.09%33023.22%241.69%1,421
Grant County, Kansas2,08278.39%54920.67%250.94%2,656
Gray County, Kansas1,73080.92%38718.10%210.98%2,138
Greeley County, Kansas57779.59%13718.90%111.52%725
Greenwood County, Kansas2,24770.28%89928.12%511.60%3,197
Hamilton County, Kansas87478.88%22220.04%121.08%1,108
Harper County, Kansas2,12373.54%71724.84%471.63%2,887
Harvey County, Kansas9,36463.08%5,23735.28%2441.64%14,845
Haskell County, Kansas1,30984.67%22114.29%161.03%1,546
Hodgeman County, Kansas94980.63%22218.86%60.51%1,177
Jackson County, Kansas3,68263.47%2,02634.93%931.60%5,801
Jefferson County, Kansas5,34561.43%3,22637.08%1301.49%8,701
Jewell County, Kansas1,49478.10%38420.07%351.83%1,913
Johnson County, Kansas153,71861.16%95,00237.80%2,6241.04%251,344
Kearny County, Kansas1,16080.67%27218.92%60.42%1,438
Kingman County, Kansas2,79574.41%90224.01%591.57%3,756
Kiowa County, Kansas1,24881.36%25316.49%332.15%1,534
Labette County, Kansas5,34559.05%3,58239.58%1241.37%9,051
Lane County, Kansas81581.18%17917.83%101.00%1,004
Leavenworth County, Kansas15,60958.37%10,80240.39%3321.24%26,743
Lincoln County, Kansas1,35075.80%39021.90%412.30%1,781
Linn County, Kansas2,95464.12%1,59234.56%611.32%4,607
Logan County, Kansas1,25282.37%24816.32%201.32%1,520
Lyon County, Kansas7,60459.18%5,00338.93%2431.89%12,850
Marion County, Kansas4,39373.30%1,49624.96%1041.74%5,993
Marshall County, Kansas3,21763.98%1,75434.88%571.13%5,028
McPherson County, Kansas9,35371.68%3,52026.98%1761.35%13,049
Meade County, Kansas1,72182.46%34916.72%170.81%2,087
Miami County, Kansas8,64564.14%4,68134.73%1531.14%13,479
Mitchell County, Kansas2,57777.88%68720.76%451.36%3,309
Montgomery County, Kansas9,43568.06%4,25430.69%1741.26%13,863
Morris County, Kansas1,94566.88%92131.67%421.44%2,908
Morton County, Kansas1,25881.37%27517.79%130.84%1,546
Nemaha County, Kansas3,96673.68%1,33624.82%811.50%5,383
Neosho County, Kansas4,53065.23%2,31833.38%971.40%6,945
Ness County, Kansas1,38777.36%37921.14%271.51%1,793
Norton County, Kansas2,06980.35%47218.33%341.32%2,575
Osage County, Kansas4,69864.36%2,48234.00%1191.63%7,299
Osborne County, Kansas1,55276.45%44421.87%341.67%2,030
Ottawa County, Kansas2,33078.56%59520.06%411.38%2,966
Pawnee County, Kansas2,14472.78%75925.76%431.46%2,946
Phillips County, Kansas2,20679.07%55019.71%341.22%2,790
Pottawatomie County, Kansas6,21071.58%2,14724.75%3193.68%8,676
Pratt County, Kansas3,07571.21%1,18127.35%621.44%4,318
Rawlins County, Kansas1,40882.29%28816.83%150.88%1,711
Reno County, Kansas17,13965.11%8,73933.20%4441.69%26,322
Republic County, Kansas2,20577.42%60121.10%421.47%2,848
Rice County, Kansas3,12472.62%1,11625.94%621.44%4,302
Riley County, Kansas12,41560.53%7,77437.91%3201.56%20,509
Rooks County, Kansas2,11678.40%52919.60%542.00%2,699
Rush County, Kansas1,22468.53%51628.89%462.58%1,786
Russell County, Kansas2,62875.82%79522.94%431.24%3,466
Saline County, Kansas14,75865.54%7,36532.71%3951.75%22,518
Scott County, Kansas1,89783.79%33914.97%281.24%2,264
Sedgwick County, Kansas101,11162.46%58,61936.21%2,1611.33%161,891
Seward County, Kansas3,89478.71%1,01220.46%410.83%4,947
Shawnee County, Kansas43,46754.34%35,43844.30%1,0901.36%79,995
Sheridan County, Kansas1,13381.63%23216.71%231.66%1,388
Sherman County, Kansas2,06375.46%63023.04%411.50%2,734
Smith County, Kansas1,78075.58%53822.85%371.57%2,355
Stafford County, Kansas1,63675.29%50623.29%311.43%2,173
Stanton County, Kansas78082.54%16016.93%50.53%945
Stevens County, Kansas1,91285.40%30813.76%190.85%2,239
Sumner County, Kansas6,99767.69%3,16330.60%1771.71%10,337
Thomas County, Kansas2,92577.92%78620.94%431.15%3,754
Trego County, Kansas1,21972.56%43425.83%271.61%1,680
Wabaunsee County, Kansas2,46470.10%98227.94%691.96%3,515
Wallace County, Kansas74184.78%11212.81%212.40%874
Washington County, Kansas2,43678.18%63220.28%481.54%3,116
Wichita County, Kansas86181.69%18317.36%100.95%1,054
Wilson County, Kansas3,20474.27%1,03724.04%731.69%4,314
Woodson County, Kansas1,20168.36%52729.99%291.65%1,757
Wyandotte County, Kansas17,31234.19%32,78164.75%5351.06%50,628

By congressional district

Bush won all four congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 72% 26% Jerry Moran
2nd 59% 39% Jim Ryun
3rd 55% 44% Dennis Moore
4th 64% 34% Todd Tiahrt

Electors

Technically the voters of Kansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to Bush/Cheney.[9]

  1. Ruth Garvey Fink
  2. Bud Hentzen
  3. Dennis Jones
  4. Wanda Konold
  5. Jack Ranson
  6. Patricia Pitney Smith

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5Bpermanent+dead+link%5D
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=1
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html
  7. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
  8. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  9. ↑ http://www.kssos.org/other/2004_Presidential_Electors.html

See also

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