United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004
November 2, 2004
Turnout 70.79% (of registered voters)[1]

 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.73% 45.53%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except during 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

As of the 2016 presidential election, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted Republican. Barack Obama would go on to win the state in both 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton was victorious in the state against Donald Trump in 2016. This is also the last time that Virginia voted for the same candidate as neighboring West Virginia. As of the 2016 presidential election, This was the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president. This was also the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park would vote Republican for president.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[6][7]

Analysis

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided one-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization.[8] African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s.[9] Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting.[10] Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics.[11] Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base.[12][13] Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.[14][15]

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004[16]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (inc.) Dick Cheney 1,716,959 53.73% 13
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.53% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.35% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0
Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0
Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0
Write-ins - 24 <0.01% 0
Totals 3,195,415 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2% —

Results breakdown

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City Kerry %Kerry # Bush %Bush # Other %Other #
Accomack41.3%5,51857.8%7,7260.8%112
Albemarle50.5%22,08848.5%21,1891.0%449
Alleghany44.5%3,20355.1%3,9620.4%30
Amelia34.5%1,86264.8%3,4990.7%36
Amherst38.3%4,86661.1%7,7580.6%71
Appomattox32.9%2,19165.6%4,3661.5%98
Arlington67.6%63,98731.3%29,6351.1%1,028
Augusta23.6%7,01974.4%22,1002.0%585
Bath36.3%82862.8%1,4321.0%22
Bedford29.0%9,10269.8%21,9251.2%377
Bland29.5%84668.5%1,9622.0%57
Botetourt30.4%4,80168.8%10,8650.8%131
Brunswick58.6%4,06241.2%2,8520.2%12
Buchanan53.7%5,27545.9%4,5070.5%47
Buckingham46.3%2,78952.8%3,1850.9%53
Campbell29.8%6,86269.1%15,8911.1%244
Caroline49.0%4,87850.2%4,9990.8%77
Carroll32.1%3,88867.4%8,1730.6%67
Charles City62.7%2,15536.5%1,2540.9%30
Charlotte40.9%2,22358.2%3,1660.9%49
Chesterfield36.9%49,34662.6%83,7450.5%723
Clarke41.5%2,69957.5%3,7411.0%65
Craig34.4%90165.1%1,7060.5%14
Culpeper35.1%5,47664.2%10,0260.7%103
Cumberland41.7%1,72157.6%2,3770.7%28
Dickenson50.8%3,76148.5%3,5910.7%54
Dinwiddie42.2%4,56957.1%6,1930.7%77
Essex46.2%2,00753.0%2,3040.8%33
Fairfax53.2%245,67145.9%211,9800.8%3,728
Fauquier35.8%10,71263.6%19,0110.6%192
Floyd36.9%2,48861.8%4,1621.2%84
Fluvanna40.3%4,41558.9%6,4580.8%84
Franklin36.0%8,00263.2%14,0480.8%173
Frederick31.0%8,85367.9%19,3861.1%301
Giles40.6%3,04757.6%4,3201.7%131
Gloucester31.3%5,10567.9%11,0840.9%144
Goochland34.7%3,58364.5%6,6680.8%87
Grayson34.0%2,43065.2%4,6550.7%52
Greene32.3%2,24065.9%4,5701.9%129
Greensville59.0%2,51440.7%1,7320.3%12
Halifax42.4%6,22057.1%8,3630.5%73
Hanover28.1%13,94171.4%35,4040.5%266
Henrico45.6%60,86453.8%71,8090.6%745
Henry42.0%9,85156.9%13,3581.1%249
Highland34.3%52264.6%9821.1%16
Isle of Wight37.0%5,87162.6%9,9290.4%71
James City38.4%11,93460.9%18,9490.7%207
King and Queen45.8%1,50652.9%1,7371.3%43
King George34.6%2,73964.7%5,1240.7%58
King William35.4%2,43664.0%4,3970.6%39
Lancaster39.8%2,47759.8%3,7240.5%29
Lee41.0%4,00558.0%5,6641.0%101
Loudoun43.6%47,27155.7%60,3820.7%777
Louisa40.2%4,84458.9%7,0830.9%108
Lunenburg45.0%2,36254.5%2,8580.5%25
Madison37.7%2,17661.6%3,5560.7%40
Mathews31.0%1,58968.2%3,4970.8%43
Mecklenburg41.4%5,29357.3%7,3191.3%168
Middlesex35.6%1,91462.0%3,3362.4%127
Montgomery44.8%14,12854.2%17,0701.0%317
Nelson49.6%3,54349.6%3,5390.8%57
New Kent30.7%2,44368.1%5,4141.1%89
Northampton50.5%2,77548.5%2,6691.0%55
Northumberland39.8%2,54859.8%3,8320.5%29
Nottoway43.7%2,63554.8%3,3031.5%92
Orange38.8%5,01559.9%7,7491.3%164
Page34.6%3,32464.8%6,2210.6%58
Patrick31.3%2,57267.0%5,5071.7%136
Pittsylvania33.8%9,27464.5%17,6731.7%470
Powhatan25.6%3,11273.6%8,9550.8%96
Prince Edward49.6%3,63248.8%3,5711.5%113
Prince George38.2%5,06661.3%8,1310.4%57
Prince William46.4%61,27152.8%69,7760.8%1,016
Pulaski37.3%5,31061.5%8,7691.2%172
Rappahannock45.4%1,83753.6%2,1721.0%41
Richmond37.0%1,24361.9%2,0821.1%36
Roanoke34.2%16,08265.1%30,5960.6%295
Rockbridge39.5%3,62758.9%5,4121.5%142
Rockingham24.9%7,27374.4%21,7370.7%206
Russell45.2%5,16753.2%6,0771.6%179
Scott33.4%3,32465.0%6,4791.6%164
Shenandoah30.2%5,18668.9%11,8200.8%140
Smyth33.6%4,14364.2%7,9062.2%270
Southampton45.8%3,43153.6%4,0180.6%43
Spotsylvania36.6%16,62362.8%28,5270.6%295
Stafford37.4%17,20862.0%28,5000.6%278
Surry55.5%1,95443.8%1,5430.7%25
Sussex55.7%2,42043.5%1,8900.8%35
Tazewell41.1%7,18457.4%10,0391.5%257
Warren37.3%5,24161.1%8,6001.6%227
Washington32.6%7,33965.5%14,7491.9%426
Westmoreland49.2%3,37050.1%3,4330.7%45
Wise40.5%5,80258.2%8,3301.3%180
Wythe31.0%3,58168.5%7,9110.5%62
York34.4%10,27664.9%19,3960.7%208
Alexandria, Virginia66.8%41,11632.3%19,8440.9%555
Bedford, Virginia41.0%1,04257.9%1,4721.1%28
Bristol, Virginia35.7%2,40063.6%4,2750.7%49
Buena Vista, Virginia39.2%93659.3%1,4171.5%36
Charlottesville, Virginia71.8%11,08827.0%4,1721.2%190
Chesapeake, Virginia42.3%38,74457.1%52,2830.6%514
Colonial Heights, Virginia25.0%2,06174.5%6,1290.5%41
Covington, Virginia51.2%1,17948.0%1,1040.8%18
Danville, Virginia49.4%9,43649.2%9,3991.4%277
Emporia, Virginia56.1%1,24743.7%9700.2%4
Fairfax, Virginia51.2%5,39547.8%5,0451.0%106
Falls Church, Virginia64.7%3,94434.0%2,0741.3%80
Franklin, Virginia54.0%1,91045.6%1,6130.4%13
Fredericksburg, Virginia54.2%4,08544.9%3,3900.9%67
Galax, Virginia42.3%98757.2%1,3360.5%12
Hampton, Virginia57.4%32,01642.0%23,3990.6%326
Harrisonburg, Virginia42.8%4,72655.9%6,1651.3%139
Hopewell, Virginia45.0%3,57353.6%4,2511.4%112
Lexington, Virginia57.0%1,34041.8%9821.1%27
Lynchburg, Virginia44.5%11,72754.7%14,4000.8%213
Manassas, Virginia43.1%5,56256.2%7,2570.7%84
Manassas Park, Virginia45.0%1,49854.2%1,8070.8%27
Martinsville, Virginia54.2%3,03645.3%2,5380.5%29
Newport News, Virginia52.0%35,31947.4%32,2080.6%425
Norfolk, Virginia61.7%43,51837.4%26,4010.9%651
Norton, Virginia48.2%72551.1%7680.7%11
Petersburg, Virginia81.0%9,68218.7%2,2380.2%29
Poquoson, Virginia22.0%1,42477.2%5,0040.8%52
Portsmouth, Virginia61.0%24,11238.5%15,2120.5%210
Radford, Virginia46.3%2,24452.9%2,5640.8%37
Richmond, Virginia70.2%52,16729.1%21,6370.7%521
Roanoke, Virginia52.4%18,86246.3%16,6611.3%477
Salem, Virginia37.0%4,25462.0%7,1151.0%115
Staunton, Virginia39.0%3,75660.3%5,8050.7%68
Suffolk, Virginia47.3%15,23352.1%16,7630.6%193
Virginia Beach, Virginia40.2%70,66659.1%103,7520.7%1,269
Waynesboro, Virginia35.1%2,79263.9%5,0921.0%79
Williamsburg, Virginia51.3%2,21647.8%2,0640.9%40
Winchester, Virginia42.5%3,96756.5%5,2831.0%93

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts.[17]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

  1. ↑ "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections.
  2. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5Bpermanent+dead+link%5D
  3. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=51
  4. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  5. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ↑ Sweeney, James R. (1999). ""Sheep without a Shepherd": The New Deal Faction in the Virginia Democratic Party". Presidential Studies Quarterly. 29: 438. doi:10.1111/1741-5705.00043. Retrieved March 31, 2008.
  9. ↑ Burchett, Michael H. (Summer 1997). "Promise and prejudice: Wise County, Virginia and the Great Migration, 1910–1920". The Journal of Negro History. 82 (3): 312. doi:10.2307/2717675. JSTOR 2717675.
  10. ↑ Eisman, Dale (October 25, 2006). "Webb, Allen court Hispanic, white-collar voters in N. Va". The Virginian-Pilot. Retrieved March 29, 2008.
  11. ↑ Turque, Bill; Wiggins, Ovetta; Stewart, Nikita (February 13, 2008). "In Virginia, Results Signal A State in Play for November". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 29, 2008.
  12. ↑ Miller, Gary; Schofield, Norman (May 2003). "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States". The American Political Science Review. 97 (2): 245–260. doi:10.1017/s0003055403000650. JSTOR 3118207.
  13. ↑ Craig, Tim (December 11, 2007). "Tensions Could Hurt Majority in Va. Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  14. ↑ "State Political Profile: Virginia". The Washington Post. Associated Press. 2006. Archived from the original on August 24, 2007. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  15. ↑ Clemons, Michael L.; Jones, Charles E. (July 2000). "African American Legislative Politics in Virginia". Journal of Black Studies. 30 (6, Special Issue: African American State Legislative Politics): 744–767. doi:10.1177/002193470003000603. JSTOR 2645922.
  16. ↑ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf
  17. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.