Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018

Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Kris Kobach Laura Kelly Greg Orman
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Running mate Wink Hartman Lynn Rogers John Doll

Incumbent Governor

Jeff Colyer
Republican


The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Kansas. Republican Governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term, but can re-enter as a candidate in 2022. On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. Brownback was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018.[1] On January 31, 2018[2] Brownback resigned the governorship and Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer succeeded him.[3] Colyer is eligible to seek a full term and he announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer faced off against Ken Selzer, CPA and current Insurance Commissioner, Jim Barnett, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach appeared headed for victory over incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes.[4] By August 14, 2018, his lead stood at 361 votes although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.[5][6][7] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination on August 14.[8] Democratic State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination.[9] Independent Greg Orman, who finished second in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, is running for governor, again as an independent candidate.[10]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle.[11] A debate will take place on September 5th between the 3 candidates[12] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running neck and neck, and Orman polling in the single digits.[13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Wink Hartman, businessman and candidate for KS-04 in 2010[25] (running for lieutenant governor)[26] Hartman joined Kris Kobach's campaign as his Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate.

Endorsements

Jeff Colyer
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Barnett
Jeff
Colyer
Wink
Hartman
Kris
Kobach
Ken
Selzer
Other Undecided
Remington (R) August 3–5, 2018 2,769 ± 2.0% 14% 34% 32% 9% 3%[36] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 2, 2018 1,546 ± 2.4% 11% 36% 43% 5% 4%[36]
Remington (R) August 2, 2018 859 ± 3.3% 13% 32% 32% 9% 3%[36] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) July 24–26, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 11% 25% 34% 8% 2%[37] 20%
Remington (R) May 14–15, 2018 1,441 ± 2.6% 9% 29% 27% 5% 30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) March 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 10% 18% 31% 4% 36%
Remington (R) February 13–14, 2018 1,806 ± 2.3% 8% 23% 5% 21% 3% 3%[38] 37%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 20% 6% 26% 11% 38%

Results

Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent) 128,488 40.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,993 8.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,807 7.82
Republican Patrick Kucera 3,212 1.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich 2,276 0.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr. 1,559 0.49
Total votes 317,173 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Arden Andersen, physician[42]
    • Running mate: Dale Cowsert, businessman
  • Jack Bergeson, high school student[43]
    • Running mate: Alexander Cline, high school student[43]
  • Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita[44]
    • Running mate: Chris Morrow, former mayor of Gardner[45]
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture and former state representative[46]
    • Running mate: Katrina Gier Lewison, Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education member, veteran

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Svaty
Statewide and local politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Arden
Andersen
Jack
Bergeson
Carl
Brewer
Laura
Kelly
Josh
Svaty
Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) June 5–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 3% 2% 22% 35% 12% 25%
25% 44% 12% 20%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,693 20.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,722 17.5
Democratic Arden Andersen 12,845 8.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson 3,850 2.5
Total votes 152,856 100.0

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Ilan Cohen, high school student from Maryland[59]
  • Aaron Coleman, college student (write-in)[60]
  • Max Correa, college student from North Carolina [61]
  • Joe Larry Hunter, former inmate[62][63]
  • Rick Kloos[64]
    • Running mate: Nathaniel Kloos, son of Rick Kloos[60]
  • Greg Orman, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[52][65]
  • Victor Redko, McGill University student[67][68]
  • Jared Rogers, University of Pennsylvania student[69]
  • Nicholas Schrieber, college student from Delaware[70]
    • Running mate: Matthew Ueckermann, college student from Maryland[70]
  • Conner Shelton, college student from Pennsylvania[71]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jeff Caldwell, executive committee member for the Libertarian Party of Kansas[72]
    • Running mate: Mary Gerlt

Withdrew

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Tossup September 28, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[77] Tilt R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Lean R September 20, 2018
Real Clear Politics[79] Tossup October, 9, 2018
Daily Kos[80] Likely R September 17, 2018
Fox News[81][lower-alpha 1] Tossup October 10, 2018
Politico[82] Lean R October 9, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Laura
Kelly (D)
Greg
Orman (I)
Kris
Kobach (R)
KCPT September 5, 2018 [83] Invited Invited Invited

Endorsements

Laura Kelly (D)
Federal politicians
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Kris Kobach (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Greg Orman (I)
Organisations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach
(R)
Laura
Kelly
(D)
Greg
Orman
(I)
Jeff
Caldwell
(L)
Other Undecided
Remington (R) September 30 – October 1, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 10% 2% 1%[124] 4%
Emerson College September 26–28, 2018 938 ± 3.5% 37% 36% 9% 3% 15%
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) September 21–24, 2018 1,178 ± 3.4% 39% 41% 9% 5% 0%[125] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) September 12–13, 2018 618 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[126] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) August 24–26, 2018 877 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[126] 11%
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 35% 36% 12% 17%

Results

Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Kris Kobach
Democratic Laura Kelly
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell
Independent Rick Kloos
Independent Greg Orman
Independent Write-in
Total votes

References

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  86. Laura Kelly. "Thank you @KansasDems for putting together a great Demofest, and thank you @amyklobuchar and @TerryMcAuliffe for attending. You could feel the energy and excitement in the room - everyone is ready to get to work and win this November! #ksleg". Twitter.
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  88. Paul Davis. "#FollowFriday & #FBF in one! I'm proud to be on the ballot w/ friend, former #ksleg colleague & future #ksgov @SenatorKelly! She shares my dedication to #ksed - a constant ally in #kssen fighting #Brownback cuts. This was taken when we received the 2014 Friend of Education Award". Twitter.
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  90. "Bill Graves endures Laura Kelly in Kansas Governor's race". Topeka Capital-Journal. September 4, 2018.
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  116. Shorman, Jonathan (May 16, 2018). "Kobach campaign shake-up: Consultant, aide are out as race intensifies". The Wichita Eagle.
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  121. Kris W. Kobach. "America's Toughest Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, endorses #TeamKobach. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  122. Kite, Allison (August 31, 2018). "Kris Kobach wins support from labor union that previously backed Democrats". The Kansas City Star.
  123. "NRA Endorses Kobach for Kansas Governor". NRA-ILA. September 21, 2018.
  124. Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
  125. Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
  126. 1 2 Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
Debates
Official campaign websites
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