United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
November 2, 2004

 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746
Percentage 51.23% 47.81%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. As of 2017, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate.

Caucuses

  • Michigan Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010.[3] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[4]

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[5] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[6]

Analysis

The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential. In the state, Bush won a majority of the counties and congressional districts, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.

Results

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.3% 17
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.8% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 5,325 0.1% 0
US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.1% 0
Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.0% 0
Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Alcona County43.96%2,87155.00%3,5921.04%686,531
Alger County50.26%2,39548.65%2,3181.09%524,765
Allegan County35.90%19,35563.11%34,0220.98%53053,907
Alpena County48.70%7,40750.39%7,6650.91%13915,211
Antrim County37.24%5,07261.52%8,3791.23%16813,619
Arenac County49.61%4,07649.55%4,0710.84%698,216
Baraga County45.06%1,66053.66%1,9771.28%473,684
Barry County37.37%11,31261.57%18,6381.06%32230,272
Bay County54.42%31,04944.60%25,4480.98%56257,059
Benzie County44.83%4,38354.04%5,2841.14%1119,778
Berrien County43.99%32,84655.01%41,0761.00%74974,671
Branch County38.98%7,00460.02%10,7841.00%17917,967
Calhoun County47.70%29,89151.21%32,0931.09%68362,667
Cass County42.02%9,53757.12%12,9640.86%19622,697
Charlevoix County40.52%5,72958.09%8,2141.39%19614,139
Cheboygan County42.78%5,94156.15%7,7981.07%14813,887
Chippewa County43.69%7,20355.33%9,1220.99%16316,488
Clare County49.09%6,98449.82%7,0881.08%15414,226
Clinton County40.95%15,48358.16%21,9890.89%33537,807
Crawford County43.21%3,12655.52%4,0171.27%927,235
Delta County48.76%9,38150.32%9,6800.92%17719,238
Dickinson County41.70%5,65057.08%7,7341.22%16513,549
Eaton County45.58%25,41153.41%29,7811.01%56355,755
Emmet County39.41%6,84659.48%10,3321.12%19417,372
Genesee County60.34%128,33439.43%83,8700.23%489212,693
Gladwin County43.20%6,34346.10%6,77010.70%1,57114,684
Gogebic County52.20%4,42146.46%3,9351.35%1148,470
Grand Traverse County39.86%18,25659.93%27,4460.21%9645,798
Gratiot County42.45%7,37756.59%9,8340.97%16817,379
Hillsdale County35.23%7,12363.34%12,8041.43%28920,216
Houghton County42.46%6,73156.08%8,8891.46%23115,851
Huron County43.68%7,62955.37%9,6710.95%16617,466
Ingham County57.78%76,87741.14%54,7341.08%1,442133,053
Ionia County38.55%10,64760.18%16,6211.27%35027,618
Iosco County46.82%6,55752.13%7,3011.06%14814,006
Iron County49.38%3,21549.52%3,2241.11%726,511
Isabella County50.57%12,33448.19%11,7541.24%30224,390
Jackson County43.21%31,02555.75%40,0291.03%74171,795
Kalamazoo County51.31%61,46247.71%57,1470.98%1,174119,783
Kalkaska County38.05%3,18960.67%5,0841.28%1078,380
Kent County40.19%116,90958.85%171,2010.96%2,781290,891
Keweenaw County43.78%63054.27%7811.95%281,439
Lake County50.99%2,67547.71%2,5031.30%685,246
Lapeer County40.97%18,08657.89%25,5561.14%50544,147
Leelanau County43.46%6,04855.57%7,7330.98%13613,917
Lenawee County44.22%20,78754.61%25,6751.17%55047,012
Livingston County36.26%33,99162.79%58,8600.95%89193,742
Luce County36.94%1,04561.82%1,7491.24%352,829
Mackinac County42.72%2,81956.16%3,7061.12%746,599
Macomb County48.75%196,16050.24%202,1661.01%4,084402,410
Manistee County49.23%6,27249.41%6,2951.36%17312,740
Marquette County53.60%17,41245.22%14,6901.19%38632,488
Mason County43.34%6,33355.60%8,1241.05%15414,611
Mecosta County43.97%7,73055.23%9,7100.80%14117,581
Menominee County46.64%5,32652.04%5,9421.32%15111,419
Midland County42.41%18,35556.31%24,3691.27%55143,275
Missaukee County31.25%2,31968.12%5,0550.63%477,421
Monroe County48.68%36,08950.54%37,4700.77%57374,132
Montcalm County42.91%11,47155.99%14,9681.10%29526,734
Montmorency County39.48%2,19659.32%3,3001.20%675,563
Muskegon County55.14%44,28243.96%35,3020.91%72980,313
Newaygo County39.60%9,05759.49%13,6080.91%20822,873
Oakland County49.75%319,38749.32%316,6330.93%5,957641,977
Oceana County44.25%5,44154.30%6,6771.46%17912,297
Ogemaw County48.30%5,21550.52%5,4541.18%12710,796
Ontonagon County44.44%1,86353.96%2,2621.60%674,192
Osceola County39.93%4,46758.98%6,5991.09%12211,188
Oscoda County40.64%1,79258.29%2,5701.07%474,409
Otsego County37.98%4,67460.70%7,4701.32%16312,307
Ottawa County27.64%35,55271.55%92,0480.81%1,043128,643
Presque Isle County45.66%3,43252.98%3,9821.36%1027,516
Roscommon County47.43%6,81051.28%7,3641.29%18514,359
Saginaw County53.37%54,88745.86%47,1650.78%800102,852
St. Clair County45.70%36,17453.99%42,7400.31%24879,162
St. Joseph County38.55%9,64861.30%15,3400.15%3725,025
Sanilac County37.76%7,88360.50%12,6321.74%36320,878
Schoolcraft County40.84%2,13743.32%2,26715.84%8295,233
Shiawassee County46.20%16,88153.11%19,4070.69%25136,539
Tuscola County44.57%12,63154.31%15,3891.12%31828,338
Van Buren County47.26%16,15151.60%17,6341.14%38934,174
Washtenaw County63.46%109,95335.47%61,4551.07%1,856173,264
Wayne County69.39%600,04729.81%257,7500.80%6,931864,728
Wexford County39.80%6,03459.14%8,9661.06%16015,160

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 53% 46% Bart Stupak
2nd 60% 39% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 59% 40% Vern Ehlers
4th 55% 44% Dave Camp
5th 41% 59% Dale Kildee
6th 53% 46% Fred Upton
7th 54% 45% Nick Smith
Joe Schwarz
8th 54% 45% Mike Rogers
9th 51% 49% Joe Knollenberg
10th 57% 43% Candice Miller
11th 53% 47% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 39% 61% Sander Levin
13th 19% 81% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 17% 83% John Conyers Jr.
15th 38% 62% John Dingell

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5Bpermanent+dead+link%5D
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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