United States presidential election in New York, 2004

United States presidential election in New York, 2004
November 2, 2004
Turnout 62.44%

 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 31 0
Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567
Percentage 58.37% 40.08%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry with an 18.3% margin of victory. Kerry took 58.37% of the vote to Bush's 40.08%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A Republican presidential nominee last carried the state of New York in the 1984 election. As of the 2016 presidential election, this remains the last presidential election the Republicans won over 40% of the vote in New York. Despite being a "safe blue state", this was the best showing for a Republican candidate in New York since 1988. This can largely be attributed to increased support for President Bush after the 9/11 attacks.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227.[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Geographic Analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99% to 24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14% - 48.86% victory.

The New York suburbs consist of Long Island, Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry.

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Despite this characteristic, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rockland and Dutchess counties voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in New York, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Popular votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 4,180,755 56.57%
Working Families John Kerry 133,525 1.81%
Total John Forbes Kerry 4,314,280 58.37% 31
Republican George W. Bush 2,806,993 37.98%
Conservative George W. Bush 144,797 1.96%
Total George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 2,962,567 40.08% 0
Independence Ralph Nader 84,247 1.14%
Peace and Justice Ralph Nader 15,626 0.21%
Total Ralph Nader 99,873 1.35% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,607 0.16% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 2,405 0.03% 0
Constitution (Write-In) Michael Peroutka 363 >0.01% 0
Green (Write-In) David Cobb 138 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) John J. Kennedy 8 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) Michael Halpin 4 >0.01% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 4 >0.01% 0
Totals 7,391,036 100% 31
Voter turnout: 62.44%

Results breakdown

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 49% 49% Tim Bishop
2nd 45% 53% Steve Israel
3rd 52% 47% Peter T. King
4th 44% 55% Carolyn McCarthy
5th 36% 63% Gary Ackerman
6th 15% 84% Gregory W. Meeks
7th 25% 74% Joseph Crowley
8th 27% 72% Jerrold Nadler
9th 44% 56% Anthony D. Weiner
10th 13% 86% Edolphus Towns
11th 13% 86% Major Owens
12th 19% 80% Nydia Velasquez
13th 55% 45% Vito Fossella
14th 25% 75% Carolyn B. Maloney
15th 9% 90% Charlie Rangel
16th 10% 89% Jose Serrano
17th 33% 67% Eliot L. Engel
18th 42% 58% Nita Lowey
19th 54% 45% Sue W. Kelly
20th 54% 46% John E. Sweeney
21st 43% 55% Michael R. McNulty
22nd 45% 54% Maurice Hinchey
23rd 51% 47% John M. McHugh
24th 53% 47% Sherwood Boehlert
25th 48% 50% James T. Walsh
26th 55% 43% Thomas M. Reynolds
27th 45% 53% Jack Quinn
Brian Higgins
28th 36% 63% Louise Slaughter
29th 56% 42% Amo Houghton
Randy Kuhl

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Albany County59.16%86,21335.94%52,3694.90%7,140145,722
Allegany County33.61%6,39262.55%11,8943.84%73019,016
Bronx County81.81%276,93815.87%53,7382.31%7,833338,509
Broome County48.82%44,49646.19%42,1004.98%4,54091,136
Cattaraugus County39.10%13,08756.85%19,0284.05%1,35633,471
Cayuga County47.95%16,91347.14%16,6264.91%1,73035,269
Chautauqua County44.29%26,36951.62%30,7344.10%2,44059,543
Chemung County42.92%16,63953.51%20,7423.57%1,38338,764
Chenango County42.76%9,00352.93%11,1444.32%90921,056
Clinton County51.17%17,04043.94%14,6334.89%1,62733,300
Columbia County50.47%15,23844.13%13,3255.40%1,63130,194
Cortland County46.29%10,35449.56%11,0854.16%93022,369
Delaware County40.49%8,42555.14%11,4744.37%90920,808
Dutchess County46.93%56,53349.24%59,3233.83%4,615120,471
Erie County55.04%240,56339.63%173,1985.33%23,281437,042
Essex County45.02%8,47449.89%9,3905.08%95718,821
Franklin County50.82%9,28644.34%8,1034.84%88418,273
Fulton County40.91%8,91955.24%12,0423.85%83921,800
Genesee County37.31%9,97058.75%15,7013.94%1,05426,725
Greene County39.53%8,60755.84%12,1594.64%1,01021,776
Hamilton County31.10%1,12065.48%2,3583.42%1233,601
Herkimer County41.01%11,38355.00%15,2654.00%1,10927,757
Jefferson County42.80%16,34253.03%20,2484.17%1,59238,182
Kings County71.91%494,16523.17%159,2004.92%33,845687,210
Lewis County39.15%4,41756.27%6,3484.57%51611,281
Livingston County37.94%11,10757.67%16,8854.39%1,28529,277
Madison County42.92%12,66552.81%15,5844.27%1,26029,509
Monroe County50.22%168,08845.83%153,3743.95%13,227334,689
Montgomery County43.99%9,17551.61%10,7634.40%91720,855
Nassau County52.06%317,28344.88%273,5023.06%18,647609,432
New York County79.76%509,84116.41%104,8833.83%24,501639,225
Niagara County48.26%45,64447.08%44,5254.66%4,40594,574
Oneida County42.45%39,65853.06%49,5694.48%4,18793,414
Onondaga County53.63%112,61841.96%88,1234.41%9,264210,005
Ontario County41.83%20,50354.30%26,6113.87%1,89749,011
Orange County43.52%61,64252.96%75,0103.52%4,987141,639
Orleans County35.51%5,73460.67%9,7963.82%61716,147
Oswego County46.33%23,26149.15%24,6754.52%2,26750,203
Otsego County47.14%12,40248.53%12,7684.32%1,13726,307
Putnam County42.20%18,89254.49%24,3973.31%1,48144,770
Queens County69.91%422,60926.13%157,9483.96%23,944604,501
Rensselaer County47.60%34,74144.24%32,2908.16%5,95272,983
Richmond County41.20%66,25553.05%85,3025.75%9,249160,806
Rockland County47.60%62,39146.93%61,5105.47%7,171131,072
Saratoga County44.25%47,36750.18%53,7095.57%5,961107,037
Schenectady County50.04%34,76243.19%30,0026.77%4,70569,469
Schoharie County37.93%5,45556.65%8,1485.42%78014,383
Schuyler County38.01%3,29054.62%4,7277.37%6388,655
Seneca County43.87%6,77149.26%7,6036.86%1,05915,433
St. Lawrence County53.19%22,17341.52%17,3105.28%2,20341,686
Steuben County33.01%14,09061.07%26,0665.92%2,52542,681
Suffolk County48.13%307,01145.81%292,1866.06%38,663637,860
Sullivan County47.81%14,44747.65%14,3984.53%1,37030,215
Tioga County39.39%9,41555.83%13,3434.77%1,14123,899
Tompkins County60.10%25,65931.71%13,5398.18%3,49442,692
Ulster County53.49%45,53041.39%35,2345.12%4,36185,125
Warren County43.26%13,05453.73%16,2133.01%90930,176
Washington County40.95%10,29552.29%13,1486.76%1,70025,143
Wayne County38.44%15,09358.90%23,1262.66%1,04539,264
Westchester County56.46%224,99237.96%151,2615.59%22,269398,522
Wyoming County33.27%5,89463.14%11,1853.58%63517,714
Yates County38.85%4,06257.90%6,0533.25%34010,455

Electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Joseph Ashton
  2. Bill De Blasio
  3. Molly Clifford
  4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
  5. Inez Dickens
  6. Danny Donahue
  7. Herman D. Farrell
  8. C. Virginia Fields
  9. Emily Giske
  10. Bea Gonzalez
  11. Alan Hevesi
  12. Frank Hoare
  13. Virginia Kee
  14. Peggy Kerry
  15. Denise King
  16. Len Lenihan
  17. Bertha Lewis
  18. Alan Lubin
  19. Thomas Manton
  20. Dennis Mehiel
  21. June O'Neill
  22. David Paterson
  23. Jose Rivera
  24. Rich Schaffer
  25. Chung Seto
  26. Sheldon Silver
  27. Eliot Spitzer
  28. Antoine Thompson
  29. Paul Tokasz
  30. Bill Wood
  31. Robert Zimmerman

References

  1. ↑
  2. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  7. ↑ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2013-01-07.
  8. ↑ "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
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