United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016
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County Results
McCain: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Kirkpatrick: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the Senate in other states and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The Arizona Democratic primary, 2016 was held on March 22, 2016, selecting Ann Kirkpatrick as the Democratic nominee. The Arizona Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016.[1]
After serving in the Arizona legislature and U.S. House for a number of years, Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican Senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office.
After hinting in September 2013 that McCain could retire,[2] he subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet.[3] On April 7, 2015, McCain announced that he would run for re-election.[4] McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he managed to defeat challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary.[5][6]
McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing.
Republican primary
McCain at a campaign rally alongside former Governor Mitt Romney, in December 2015
Ward at her primary election night rally on August 30, 2016
John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In September 2013 he hinted that he may retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off."[2] He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election.[7] By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser[8] and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."[9]
In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. He faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who some felt was the weaker opponent. McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenger in 2016.[5] A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents.[10] An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).[11]
Further compounding matters for McCain was his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party.[5] After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing.[12] Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election,[5] with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war".[6] However, McCain still had a large warchest - $1.7 million as of June 2014 - and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.[5]
By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of him running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor."[6] In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016."[3] At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.[13]
In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists.[14][15] The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races.[14] Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain.[14] Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted.[14][16] Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".[14]
Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert had been widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, agreed that if one of them decided to run against McCain, the other would not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote wouldn't be split between them.[17] Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but was considered the less likely of the two to run – he has much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and has admitted that his wife was "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate.[17] Salmon has since stated that he will not challenge McCain in the primary.[18]
In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election[19] and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]."[20] Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race,[21][22] with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.[23]
McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.[4]
Candidates
Declined
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona[31]
- Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona[32]
- Trent Franks, U.S. Representative[33][34]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative[35]
- Christine Jones, former Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Go Daddy and candidate for Governor in 2014[36][37][38] (running for AZ-05)
- Martha McSally, U.S. Representative[39]
- Matt Salmon, U.S. Representative[18]
- David Schweikert, U.S. Representative[5][37][40]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative[33]
- Grant Woods, former Arizona Attorney General[33]
Endorsements
John McCain |
- Individuals
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[41]
- John R. Bolton, 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations [42][43]
- Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General [44]
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[45]
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 Republican nominee for Senate in California, and 2016 presidential candidate[46]
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former representative of Georgia's 6th congressional district[47]
- Luis Gonzalez, Former Arizona Diamondbacks out fielder and notable Cuban-American[48]
- Fred Karger, political consultant and 2012 presidential candidate[49]
- Evan McMullin, former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives, former CIA operations officer and 2016 independent candidate for president[50]
- Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman[51]
- Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican Nominee for President [52]
- Paul Ryan, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district and 2012 GOP Vice Presidential nominee[53]
- Senators
- Governors
- Mayors
- Mayor John Insalaco, Apache Junction, Arizona [67]
- Mayor Kenneth Weise, Avondale, Arizona [68]
- Mayor Jackie Meck, Buckeye, Arizona [69]
- Mayor Les Peterson, Carefree, Arizona [70]
- Mayor Vincent Francia, Cave Creek, Arizona [71]
- Mayor Charles German, Camp Verde, Arizona [67]
- Mayor Jay Tibshraeny, Chandler, Arizona [72]
- Mayor Diane Joens, Cottonwood, Arizona [73]
- Mayor Terry Nolan, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona [74]
- Vice Mayor Douglas Treadway, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona [75]
- Mayor Billy Waters, Duncan, Arizona [76]
- Mayor Lana Mook, El Mirage, Arizona [77]
- Mayor Alvy Johnson, Fredonia, Arizona [78]
- Mayor John Lewis, Gilbert, Arizona [79]
- Mayor Georgia Lord, Goodyear, Arizona [80]
- Vice Mayor Sheri Lauritano, Goodyear, Arizona [81]
- Mayor Bobby Tyler, Holbrook, Arizona [82]
- Mayor Ken Taylor, Huachuca City, Arizona [83]
- Mayor Richard Anderson, Kingman City, Arizona [84]
- Mayor Thomas Schoaf, Litchfield Park, Arizona [85]
- Mayor Ed Honea, Marana, Arizona [86]
- Mayor John Giles, Mesa, Arizona [87]
- Former Mayor Scott Smith, Mesa, Arizona [67]
- Mayor John Doyle, Nogales, Arizona [88]
- Mayor Satish Hiremath, Oro Valley, Arizona [89]
- Mayor Michael Collins, Paradise Valley, Arizona [90]
- Mayor R.E. Isakson, Patagonia, Arizona [67]
- Mayor Kenny Evans, Payson, Arizona [91]
- Former Mayor Barbara Brewer, Payson, Arizona [92]
- Mayor Cathy Carlat, Peoria, Arizona [93]
- Mayor Tom Claridge, Pima, Arizona [67]
- Mayor Gregory Smith, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona [94]
- Former Mayor Roger Williams, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona [95]
- Mayor Harry Oberg, Prescott, Arizona [96]
- Former Mayor Martin Kuykendall, Prescott, Arizona [97]
- Mayor Harvy Skoog, Prescott Valley, Arizona [98]
- Mayor Gail Barney, Queen Creek, Arizona [99]
- Mayor Chris Gibbs, Safford, Arizona [100]
- Mayor Jerry Sanchez, San Luis, Arizona [101]
- Mayor Daryl Seymore, Show Low, Arizona [102]
- Mayor Rick Mueller, Sierra Vista, Arizona [103]
- Former Mayor Bob Stain, Sierra Vista, Arizona [104]
- Mayor Tom Poscharsky, Snowflake, Arizona [105]
- Mayor Ryan Patterson, St. Johns, Arizona [67]
- Mayor Ronnie McDaniel, Star Valley, Arizona [67]
- Former Mayor Hugh Hallman, Tempe, Arizona [67]
- Former Vice Mayor Onnie Shekerjian, Tempe, Arizona [106]
- Mayor Bob Rivera, Thatcher, Arizona [107]
- Former Mayor Greg Bryan, Tusayan, Arizona [108]
- Mayor Graig Sanderson, Tusayan, Arizona [109]
- Mayor Cecilia McCollough, Wellton, Arizona [110]
- Mayor Robert Irvin, Willcox, Arizona [111]
- Mayor John Moore, Williams, Arizona [112]
- Mayor Robin Boyd, Winslow, Arizona [113]
- Mayor Michael LeVault, Youngtown, Arizona [114]
- Mayor Douglas Nicholls, Yuma, Arizona [115]
- Organizations
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Alex Meluskey (withdrew) |
- Individuals
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Kelli Ward |
- Individuals
- Sylvia Allen, President pro tempore of the Arizona Senate
- Nancy Barto, State Senator
- Dave Farnsworth, State Senator
- John Fillmore, former State Representative
- Mark Finchem, State Representative
- Jim Gilchrist, co-founder and President of the Minuteman Project[125]
- Louie Gohmert, U.S. Representative from Texas[126]
- Gail Griffin, State Senator
- Michael Johns, former White House speechwriter, former Heritage Foundation policy analyst and Tea Party activist[127]
- Anthony Kern, State Representative
- Vince Leach, State Representative
- Mark Levin, conservative radio host[128]
- Richard Mack, former Graham County Sheriff, candidate for TX-21 in 2012 and Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative from Kentucky[126]
- Charles Main, Arlington Former Arlington Elementary School Board President
- Al Melvin, former State Senator and candidate for Governor in 2014
- Tom Morrissey, former Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and 2014 State Senate candidate
- Jill Norgaard, State Representative
- Ron Paul, 2012 Republican Presidential candidate and former US Representative from Texas[129]
- Russell Pearce, former President of the Arizona Senate
- Warren Petersen, State Representative
- Carl Seel, former State Representative
- Steve Smith, State Senator
- Emilena Turley, Queen Creek Town Council member
- Laura Ingraham, conservative radio host
- Organizations
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Polling
Hypothetical polling |
- with Jan Brewer
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
Jan Brewer |
Other |
Undecided |
The Polling Company |
April 11–12, 2014 |
600 |
± 4.1% |
29% |
47.7% |
— |
23.3% |
- with Christine Jones
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
Christine Jones |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
May 1–3, 2015 |
300 |
± 5.7% |
48% |
27% |
— |
25% |
- with Matt Salmon
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
Matt Salmon |
Other |
Undecided |
The Polling Company |
April 11–12, 2014 |
600 |
± 4.1% |
30.3% |
48.2% |
— |
21.5% |
Public Policy Polling |
May 1–3, 2015 |
300 |
± 5.7% |
42% |
40% |
— |
18% |
- with David Schweikert
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
David Schweikert |
Other |
Undecided |
The Polling Company |
April 11–12, 2014 |
600 |
± 4.1% |
33.9% |
40.1% |
— |
26% |
Public Policy Polling |
May 1–3, 2015 |
300 |
± 5.7% |
40% |
39% |
— |
20% |
- Generic Republican
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
A different Republican |
Other |
Undecided |
The Polling Company |
April 11–12, 2014 |
600 |
± 4.1% |
30.5% |
60.7% |
— |
8.8% |
- Someone more conservative
Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John McCain |
Someone more conservative |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
May 1–3, 2015 |
300 |
± 5.7% |
37% |
51% |
— |
12% |
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Results
Results by county:
McCain—50–60%
McCain—40–50%
Ward—50–60%
Ward—40–50%