Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014
November 4, 2014

 
Nominee Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert J. Healey
Party Democratic Republican Moderate
Popular vote 131,452 117,106 69,070
Percentage 40.7% 36.2% 21.4%
Governor before election

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Gina Raimondo
Democratic

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates. Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female Governor in Rhode Island history.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. Senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013 that he would not run for re-election.[2][3] Chafee thus became just the fourth Governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.[4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster.[5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Todd
Giroux		 Clay
Pell		 Gina
Raimondo		 Angel
Taveras		 Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates August 11–14, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.4% 25.6% 32.2% 26.8% 12.9%
Fleming & Associates May 27–30, 2014 506 ± 4.38% 1.6% 11.5% 29.2% 33.4% 24.3%
Brown University April 3–5, 2014 395 ± 4.9% — 9.6% 29.4% 25.8% 35.2%
Fleming & Associates February 3–6, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.2% 14.7% 27% 31.2% 25.9%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 433 ± 4.5% — — 42% 33.6% 24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^ September 10–12, 2013 400 ± 5% — — 30% 49% 21%
  • ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign

Results

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gina Raimondo 53,990 42.15
Democratic Angel Taveras 37,326 29.14
Democratic Clay Pell 34,515 26.94
Democratic Todd Giroux 2,264 1.77
Total votes 128,095 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ken
Block		 Allan
Fung		 Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * April 2014 300 ± ? 46% 37% 17%
Brown University April 3–5, 2014 86 ± 10.6% 36% 31.4% 38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * October 2013 ? ± ? 25% 53% 22%
  • * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign

Results

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Allan Fung 17,530 54.9
Republican Ken Block 14,399 45.1
Total votes 31,929 100

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for Governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary)[15]
  • James Spooner (Moderate)[23]

Removed from ballot

  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

  • Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary)[24]

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican nominee Alan Fung over her by 42% to 30%.[25] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received.[26] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."[27]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[28] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Lean D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[30] Tilt D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[31] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Gina
Raimondo (D)		 Allan
Fung (R)		 Robert J.
Healey (M)		 Other Undecided
Brown University October 25–26, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 39.6% 39% 13% 1.4%[32] 11.2%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 866 ± 6% 40% 35% — 4% 21%
Brown University October 14–17, 2014 1,129 ± 2.9% 41.6% 30.5% 9.1% 0.8%[33] 18%
Fleming & Associates October 6–9, 2014 505 ± 4% 41.8% 35.6% 8.1% 0.8%[34] 13.7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 724 ± 4% 41% 38% — 2% 19%
Rasmussen Reports September 23–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 37% — 11% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies* September 10–11, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 42% 42% — — 16%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 37.6% 35.9% — — 26.5%
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 46% 27% — 12%[35] 14%
  • * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign

Results

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Gina Raimondo 131,899 40.7 +17.7
Republican Allan Fung 117,428 36.2 +2.6
Moderate Robert J. Healey 69,278 21.4 +14.9
Independent Kate Fletcher 3,483 1.1
Independent Leon Kayarian 1,228 0.4
n/a Write-ins 739 0.2
Plurality 14,461 4.5
Turnout 324,045
Democratic hold Swing

By municipality

Gina Raimondo
Democratic		 Allan Fung
Republican		 Robert J. Healey
Moderate		 Others Total
Municipality Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Barrington3,56649.6%2,02228.1%1,55421.6%500.7%7,192
Bristol2,62835.7%1,95926.6%2,70936.8%751.0%7,368
Burrillville1,33428.6%1,86139.9%1,37129.4%1042.2%4,670
Central Falls1,35966.4%35817.5%28013.7%502.4%2,047
Charlestown1,17738.0%1,13736.7%72823.5%591.9%3,101
Coventry3,81230.2%4,97939.4%3,61028.6%2331.8%12,634
Cranston8,15930.2%14,85355.0%3,71613.8%2781.0%27,006
Cumberland4,66139.9%4,32537.0%2,47821.2%2201.9%11,684
East Greenwich2,36442.3%2,31541.4%84815.2%651.2%5,592
East Providence5,95843.5%3,71827.1%3,80427.8%2251.6%13,705
Exeter77128.4%1,14742.3%74227.3%532.0%2,713
Foster53428.0%73238.3%60431.6%402.1%1,910
Glocester96327.2%1,50342.5%1,01928.8%551.5%3,540
Hopkinton83630.9%1,08039.9%72326.7%682.3%2,707
Jamestown1,32546.2%90131.4%59020.6%631.9%2,879
Johnston3,27032.6%4,50244.9%2,12621.2%1341.5%10,032
Lincoln2,97436.2%3,24939.6%1,87022.8%1191.4%8,212
Little Compton67441.2%64839.7%28817.6%221.4%1,632
Middletown2,24141.9%1,90235.5%1,09020.4%1192.3%5,352
Narragansett2,39539.3%2,41039.6%1,19819.7%841.4%6,087
New Shoreham36550.3%17424.0%17323.8%141.9%726
Newport3,73449.4%2,31230.6%1,33117.6%1772.3%7,554
North Kingstown4,16637.6%4,30538.8%2,42221.8%1951.7%11,088
North Providence4,01336.1%4,50540.6%2,41421.7%1701.6%11,102
North Smithfield1,45633.2%1,87042.7%98622.5%681.6%4,380
Pawtucket7,14451.8%3,39124.6%2,96021.5%2842.1%13,779
Portsmouth2,82441.1%2,47736.1%1,42620.8%1362.0%6,863
Providence24,66265.0%8,44522.3%4,11610.8%7201.9%37,943
Richmond85129.5%1,15340.0%82528.6%531.8%2,882
Scituate1,17025.5%2,20348.1%1,14625.0%631.3%4,582
Smithfield2,58733.7%3,24142.2%1,72522.5%1191.6%7,672
South Kingstown4,60643.1%3,56233.3%2,29121.4%2332.2%10,692
Tiverton2,09039.8%1,88235.9%1,17322.4%1032.0%5,248
Warren1,11829.6%82521.9%1,79747.6%330.9%3,773
Warwick10,55935.0%11,38337.7%7,79525.8%4281.4%30,165
West Greenwich60525.0%1,09745.3%68428.3%331.3%2,419
West Warwick2,83634.6%3,23539.4%2,00024.4%1341.6%8,205
Westerly3,09441.3%3,00440.1%1,19516.0%1972.6%7,490
Woonsocket3,01840.6%2,76337.2%1,47119.8%1822.4%7,434

References

  1. ↑ Klepper, David (December 14, 2012). "RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem". Associated Press. Boston.com. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  2. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013). "Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  3. 1 2 Taylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013). "Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term". NBC News. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  4. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013). "Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term". Smart Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  5. ↑ Stephanie Simon (September 8, 2014). "Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race". Politico. Retrieved September 25, 2015.
  6. ↑ Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013). "The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare". GoLocalProv. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  7. ↑ The Associated Press (January 27, 2014). "Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov". POLITICO. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
  8. ↑ Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013). "Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor". WPRI-TV. Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  9. ↑ Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013). "Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  10. 1 2 DeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013). "Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor". ABC 6. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
  11. ↑ Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013). "Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer". WPRI. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
  12. ↑ Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Archived May 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine.
  13. ↑ "Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs". Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  14. 1 2 "2014 Statewide Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  15. 1 2 Gregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013). "Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  16. ↑ Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  17. ↑ Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013). "Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14". WPRI-TV. Retrieved August 10, 2013.
  18. ↑ Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013). "NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Retrieved May 20, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista"". Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  20. ↑ "Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor". Associated Press. NBC 10. October 18, 2013. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  21. ↑ Towne, Shaun (September 12, 2014). "Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race". WPRI. Retrieved September 14, 2014.
  22. 1 2 "12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race". NBC 10 News. June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
  23. ↑ Katherine Gregg (September 15, 2014). "R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor". Providence Journal. Retrieved September 24, 2014.
  24. ↑ Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013). "The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI". WPRI. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  25. ↑ "Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island". Wall Street Journal. October 28, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  26. ↑ "Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  27. ↑ "Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  28. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 11, 2018.
  29. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 11, 2018.
  30. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 11, 2018.
  31. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 11, 2018.
  32. ↑ Kate Fletcher (I) 1.2%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0.2%
  33. ↑ Kate Fletcher (I) 0.3%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0.5%
  34. ↑ Kate Fletcher (I) 0.4%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0.4%
  35. ↑ Ken Block (I)
  36. ↑ http://www.ri.gov/election/results/2014/general_election/
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