United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016

November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Rob Portman Ted Strickland
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,118,567 1,996,908
Percentage 58.0% 37.2%

County Results

Portman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Strickland:      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. Senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman was selected to face former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.

Initially, the seat was thought by many to be fertile ground for a Democratic pickup, but after more than five million votes were cast, Senator Portman was re-elected to a second term by a landslide, gathering 58.32% of the popular vote. His popular vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record of 3,464,651 in his 2004 reelection to his second and final term.

Republican primary

Republican Senator Rob Portman is running for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3][4][5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3][6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2][7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, have pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, have said that they are unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8][9]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures)[11][12]

Declined

Endorsements

Don Elijah Eckhart
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Don Elijah
Eckhart
Rob
Portman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 638 ± 3.9% 7% 60% 33%

Results

Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman 1,336,686 82.16%
Republican Don Elijah Eckhart 290,268 17.84%
Total votes 1,626,954 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

P.G. Sittenfeld
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
  • Heather Zichal, former Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change (2009–2013)[31]
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives (former)
Ohio State Representatives (current)
Ohio State Representatives (former)
Mayors
City Council members
  • Chris Seelbach, Cincinnati City Councilman[33]
  • Yvette Simpson, Cincinnati City Councilwoman[33]
  • Wendell Young, Cincinnati City Councilman[33]
County officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelli
Prather
P.G.
Sittenfeld
Ted
Strickland
Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 360 ± 5.2% 13% 65% 22%
Public Policy Polling January 12–14, 2016 1,138 ± ? 10% 10% 61% 18%
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 6% 16% 50% 28%

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ted Strickland 742,676 65.04%
Democratic P.G. Sittenfeld 254,232 22.26%
Democratic Kelli Prather 144,945 12.69%
Total votes 1,141,853 100.00%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[43]

Results

Green primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Joe DeMare 3,123 100.00%
Total votes 3,123 100.00%

General election

Candidates

  • Rob Portman (R), incumbent Senator
  • Ted Strickland (D), former Governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative
  • Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
  • Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[44]
  • Tom Connors (I)
  • James Stahl (Write-in)

Endorsements

Rob Portman
Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Governors
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Statewide officials
Diplomats
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Ted Strickland
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Ohio State Senators
Ohio State Representatives (current)
Ohio State Representatives (former)
Mayors
City Council members
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Debates

Key:  P  denotes candidate was present at the debate;  N  denotes candidate was not invited;  A  denotes candidate absent but was invited;  O  denotes candidate was out of the race.

Details Candidates Participating
Date Place Sponsor Sen. Portman (REP) Fmr. Gov. Strickland (DEM) Tom Connors (NP) Joseph Demare (GRE) Scott Rupert (NP) James Stahl (WI)
October 14, 2016 Youngstown, Ohio WFMJ-TV/The Vindicator P P N N N N
October 17, 2016 Columbus, Ohio WBNS-TV/The Columbus Dispatch P P N N N N
October 20, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio WEWS-TV/City Club of Cleveland P P N N N N

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[111] Lean R September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] Safe R October 20, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[113] Likely R October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[114] Safe R October 28, 2016
Real Clear Politics[115] Likely R October 28, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10%
Quinnipiac University March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% 39% 48% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 43% 41% 15%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 6–7, 2015 474 ± 4.5% 47% 37% 16%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% 40% 46% 1% 13%
Quinnipiac University August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% 41% 44% 1% 10%
Harstad Strategic Research September 10–16, 2015 813 ± 3.4% 43% 46% 11%
Quinnipiac University Sept 25 – October 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 46% 1% 8%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 47% 47% 6%
Baldwin Wallace University February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% 44% 40% 16%
Quinnipiac University February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% 42% 44% 14%
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% 40% 41% 19%
Hart Research Associates April 5–7, 2016 500 ± 3.2% 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling April 26–27, 2016 799 ± 3.2% 38% 38% 1% 23%
Quinnipiac University April 27 – May 8, 2016 1,042 ± 3.0% 42% 43% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 781 ± 3.4% 46% 42% 12%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016 971 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 1% 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 40% 43% 17%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 708 ± 3.7% 40% 39% 21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 848 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Quinnipiac University June 30 – July 11, 2016 955 ± 3.2% 47% 40% 1% 9%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 1,104 ± 3.5% 41% 40% 4% 14%
Suffolk University July 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 33% 6% 23%
Public Policy Polling July 22–24, 2016 1,334 ± 2.7% 43% 38% 19%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 889 ± 3.3% 48% 43% 1% 8%
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 7, 2016 812 ± 3.4% 49% 40% 1% 10%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 46% 39% 4% 11%
Monmouth University August 18–21, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 40% 4% 8%
Emerson College August 25–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 40% 25% 10% 25%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,134 ± 3.0% 48% 39% 13%
Quinnipiac University Aug 29 – September 7, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 9–12, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 3% 7%
CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016 769 LV ± 3.0% 58% 37% 5%
895 RV 56% 38% 5%
Suffolk University September 12–14, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 39% 31% 5% 23%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 51% 34% 4% 11%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 737 LV ± 3.5% 51% 37% 1% 10%
806 RV 50% 37% 1% 10%
TargetSmart/William & Mary September 15–22, 2016 652 LV ± 3.4% 47% 32% 4% 17%
821 RV 44% 34% 4% 18%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Sept 27 – October 2, 2016 800 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 5% 5%
Quinnipiac University Sept 27 – October 2, 2016 497 ± 4.4% 55% 38% 7%
Monmouth University October 1–4, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 54% 39% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 5–6, 2016 782 ± 3.5% 51% 36% 12%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 49% 38% 2% 10%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,304 ± 3.0% 51% 37% 12%
Baldwin Wallace University October 9–11, 2016 1,152 ± 3.0% 48% 36% 16%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 47% 30% 6% 16%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 724 LV ± 3.6% 55% 37% 3% 5%
1,007 RV ± 3.1% 54% 36% 3% 6%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 774 LV ± 3.5% 56% 40% 2%
890 RV 55% 40% 2%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,307 ± 0.5% 56% 39% 5%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016 624 ± 3.9% 54% 41% 1% 4%
Suffolk University October 17–19, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 46% 31% 6% 14%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 49% 35% 4% 12%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 55% 40% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26 – November 1, 2016 1,586 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
Quinnipiac University Oct 27 – November 1, 2016 589 ± 4.0% 56% 38% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27 – November 2, 2016 1,728 ± 4.6% 57% 40% 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28 – November 3, 2016 2,004 ± 4.6% 58% 39% 3%
CBS News/YouGov November 2–4, 2016 1,189 ± 4.1% 52% 39% 3% 6%
The Columbus Dispatch Oct 27 – November 5, 2016 1,151 ± 2.9% 58% 37% 5%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 49% 28% 11% 12%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31 – November 6, 2016 2,530 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,860 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%

Results

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016 [116]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Rob Portman (Incumbent) 3,118,567 58.03% +1.18%
Democratic Ted Strickland 1,996,908 37.16% -2.24%
Independent Tom Connors 93,041 1.73% N/A
Green Joseph R. DeMare 88,246 1.64% N/A
Independent Scott Rupert 77,291 1.44% N/A
Independent James Stahl (Write-in) 111 0.00% N/A
Total votes 5,374,164 100.00%
Republican hold Swing NA

By congressional district

Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including the 13th, which Hillary Clinton also won in the presidential race.[117]

District Portman Strickland Representative
1st 60% 36% Steve Chabot
2nd 65% 31% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 36% 59% Joyce Beatty
4th 69% 26% Jim Jordan
5th 66% 30% Bob Latta
6th 66% 29% Bill Johnson
7th 66% 29% Bob Gibbs
8th 72% 24% Warren Davidson
9th 43% 51% Marcy Kaptur
10th 60% 36% Mike Turner
11th 22% 73% Marcia Fudge
12th 62% 34% Pat Tiberi
13th 48% 46% Tim Ryan
14th 61% 34% David Joyce
15th 61% 34% Steve Stivers
16th 62% 32% Jim Renacci

Analysis

Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run. Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in congress.

References

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