United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016

November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 354,649 353,632
Percentage 48.0% 47.8%

County Results

Hassan:      40-50%      50–60%

Ayotte:      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. Senator before election

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.[2] The Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as Governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%.[3] This is the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974-75 election, and the first time since that election that New Hampshire's Class 3 Senate seat has been won by a Democrat. Upon being sworn in as a Senator in 2017, Hassan joined fellow Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in representing New Hampshire in the Senate.

Republican primary

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[4]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Results

Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte 86,558 78.55%
Republican Jim Rubens 19,139 17.37%
Republican Tom Alciere 1,586 1.44%
Republican Gerald Beloin 1,252 1.14%
Republican Stanley Emanuel 1,187 1.08%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (write-in) 301 0.27%
Scatter 167 0.15%
Total votes 110,190 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Libertarian convention

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.[23][24]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
Presidents
Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
State Legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Maggie Hassan
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[91] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[92] Lean D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[93] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[94] Tossup November 5, 2016
Real Clear Politics[95] Tossup November 5, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 44% 46% 10%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 40% 14%
New England College December 1, 2014 541 ± 4.2% 48% 43% 4% 5%
NBC News/Marist February 3–10, 2015 887 ± 3.3% 44% 48% 7%
Public Opinion Strategies February 17–18, 2015 424 ± 4.7% 46% 45% 9%
Gravis Marketing March 18–19, 2015 1,110 ± 5.0% 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 45% 46% 9%
Gravis Marketing April 21–22, 2015 1,117 ± 3.0% 51% 43% 6%
WMUR/UNH May 6–22, 2015 524 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 2% 9%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates June 25–28, 2015 500 ± 3.0% 52% 41% 7%
The Tarrance Group July 5–6, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 1% 12%
NBC News/Marist Poll July 2015 910 ± 3.2% 50% 42% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 44% 43% 13%
WMUR/UNH Sept 21 – October 2, 2015 519 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 5–6, 2015 1,035 ± 3.1% 52% 42% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 43% 44% 13%
Public Policy Polling November 30 – December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%
Gravis Marketing January 15–18, 2016 1,197 ± 2.8% 49% 42% 9%
Marist Poll January 28, 2016 2,258 ± 2.1% 45% 40% 15%
WMUR/UNH February 20–28, 2016 628 ± 3.7% 45% 41% 4% 10%
WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 43% 42% 15%
Dartmouth College April 11–16, 2016 362 ± 5.2% 37% 35% 28%
WBUR/MassINC May 12–15, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2% 4%
Global Strategy Group May 25–26, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 12%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 649 ± 3.9% 44% 47% 8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 47% 7%
Global Strategy Group June 15–16, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 45% 49% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 578 ± 4.1% 42% 44% 15%
American Research Group June 24–28, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 51% 42% 7%
WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.5% 42% 45% 3% 11%
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 1,166 ± 5.1% 49% 41% 10%
GBA Strategies July 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 4%
WBUR/MassINC July 29 – August 1, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 50% 2% 7%
37% 48% 2% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 42% 47% 11%
Vox Populi Polling (R) August 7–8, 2016 820 ± 3.4% 43% 46% 11%
CBS News/YouGov August 10–12, 2016 990 ± 4.3% 41% 42% 17%
WMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 42% 44% 3% 12%
Public Policy Polling August 26–28, 2016 977 ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 585 ± 4.1% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College September 3–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 46% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 52% 44% 4%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 2% 5%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 47% 47% 6%
GBA Strategies September 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 7% 2%
47% 49% 4%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 45% 48% 3% 4%
46% 48% 3% 3%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 47% 41% 4% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 44% 13%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 45% 44% 4% 5%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 2% 5%
46% 45% 2% 6%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 42% 47% 10% 1%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 39% 48% 4% 9%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10% 1%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 48% 44% 4% 4%
46% 43% 4% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 2%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 48% 47% 2% 3%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 6% 2%
Emerson College October 23–25, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6% 1%
InsideSources/NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 49% 47% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 44% 45% 3% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 44% 46% 3% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 45% 45% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 8% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 46% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26 – November 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29 – November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3%
48% 43% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 29 – November 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 47% 2% 8%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31 – November 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 45% 48% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27 – November 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 37% 50% 10% 3%
UMass Lowell/7News Oct 28 – November 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 46% 47% 5% 3%
901 RV ± 3.8% 43% 46% 5% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 30 – November 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 3% 8%
American Research Group Oct 31 – November 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%
Suffolk University Oct 31 – November 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 42% 5% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28 – November 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
WMUR/UNH Oct 31 – November 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 2% 6%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5% 1%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31 – November 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 41% 50% 7% 2%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 45% 49% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 42% 51% 6% 1%

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Margaret Wood Hassan 354,649 47.98% +11.28%
Republican Kelly Ann Ayotte (Incumbent) 353,632 47.84% -12.28%
Independent Aaron Day 17,742 2.40% N/A
Libertarian Brian Chabot 12,597 1.70% +0.65%
Plurality 1,017 0.14%
Turnout 738,620 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Allegations of voting irregularities

In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire.[96] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on Election Day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire drivers license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact 3 such voters who said that they were college students and kept the drivers license from their home state.[97]

See also

References

  1. "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  2. 1 2 John DiStaso (November 7, 2014). "Ayotte, hoping Senate finally 'gets things done,' says she'll seek reelection". NH Journal. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 "United States Senate - 2016 General Election". New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  4. 1 2 3 Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
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  55. "NV, NH, NC & PA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D. CA) helps these women take back the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. October 29, 2016. Retrieved November 1, 2016.
  56. "NH-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. March 30, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  57. Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
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  62. "NH-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. November 8, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  63. Hagen, Lisa (August 29, 2016). "Sanders endorses Dem candidates in critical senate races". The Hill. Retrieved August 29, 2016.
  64. "New Hampshire's senior Senator knows that we need Maggie in the U.S. Senate fighting for our families". Facebook. July 1, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  65. 1 2 "DSCC endorses Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire's Senate race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. October 9, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  66. Distaso, John (May 23, 2016). "WMUR exclusive: Elizabeth Warren to keynote NH Democrats' state convention". WMUR-TV. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
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  69. "NH-Sen: Will & Grace's Debra Messing goes all in for Maggie Hassan (D)". Daily Kos. September 1, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
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  71. "NH-Sen: Award winning novelist Jodi Picoult endorses Maggie Hassan (D) for U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. May 16, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
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  73. "Largest Federal Employee Union Endorses Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". PR Newswire. August 10, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  74. "RELEASE: AFT-NH endorses Governor Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". maggiehassan.com. August 30, 2016. Retrieved September 26, 2016.
  75. Hassan, Maggie (October 18, 2016). "Another exciting endorsement! The Alliance for Reitred Americans is with Maggie because she'll always protect NH seniors #nhsen #nhpolitics". Twitter. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  76. "ARS PAC endorses Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate, launches new ad to hold Senator Kelly Ayotte accountable for votes to protect gun background check loopholes". Americans for Responsible Solutions. May 25, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  77. "American Nurses Association (ANA-PAC) Endorses Gov. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire Senate race". Nursing World. August 24, 2016. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
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  97. Weigel, David (September 8, 2017). "Election Integrity Commission members accuse New Hampshire voters of fraud". Washington Post.
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