United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016
November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Chuck Grassley Patty Judge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 926,007 549,460
Percentage 60.1% 35.7%
County Results

Grassley:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Judge:      50–60%
U.S. Senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016.[1] with Grassley winning the Republican nomination, and Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won on November 8, 2016.

Background

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[2] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) 90,089 98.36%
Republican Write-ins 1,500 1.64%
Total votes 91,589 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Patty
Judge		 Rob
Hogg		 Bob
Krause		 Tom
Fiegen		 None/Other Undecided
Des Moines Register May 30 – June 2, 2016 542 ± 4.2% 42% 25% 6% 5% 6% 15%
KBUR-AM 1490 May 31 – June 1, 2016 1,361 ± 3.0% 37% 31% 3% 6% – 23%

Results

Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Judge 46,322 47.62%
Democratic Rob Hogg 37,801 38.86%
Democratic Tom Fiegen 6,573 6.76%
Democratic Bob Krause 6,425 6.60%
Democratic Write-ins 154 0.16%
Total votes 97,275 100.00%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23] Likely R September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe R September 26, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[25] Safe R September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[26] Safe R October 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[27] Likely R October 4, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chuck
Grassley (R)		 Patty
Judge (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 9–13, 2016 630 ± 3.9% 48% 41% — 11%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 897 ± 3.3% 46% 39% — 14%
Loras College June 24–28, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% — 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 822 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 1% 5%
Monmouth University July 8–11, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 52% 42% — 6%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 998 ± 4.8% 45% 37% 2% 16%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 899 ± 3.3% 52% 42% 1% 5%
Suffolk University August 8–10, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 52% 42% — 6%
Quinnipiac University August 9–16, 2016 846 ± 3.4% 51% 42% — 6%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 987 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 1% 15%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 827 ± 3.4% 49% 43% — 8%
Emerson College Aug 31 – September 1, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 3% 6%
RABA Research September 6–8, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 50% 37% — 13%
Monmouth University September 12–14, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 56% 39% 2% 3%
Quinnipiac University September 13–21, 2016 612 ± 4.0% 55% 43% — 2%
Loras College September 20–22, 2016 491 ± 4.4% 54% 37% — 9%
Des Moines Register/Selzer October 3–6, 2016 642 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 2% 6%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 917 ± 3.0% 51% 39% — 11%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 523 ± 4.2% 56% 41% — 3%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,135 ± 0.5% 56% 40% — 5%
Quinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016 791 ± 3.5% 56% 38% — 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 984 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26 – November 1, 2016 867 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27 – November 2, 2016 1,226 ± 4.6% 57% 40% — 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28 – November 3, 2016 1,469 ± 4.6% 57% 39% — 4%
Loras College November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 53% 37% 1% 8%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 60% 32% 4% 5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer November 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 56% 33% 2% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31 – November 6, 2016 1,598 ± 4.6% 56% 39% — 5%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,781 ± 4.6% 57% 39% — 4%

Results

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) 926,007 60.09% -4.26%
Democratic Patty Judge 549,460 35.66% +2.36%
Libertarian John Heiderscheit 41,794 2.71% +0.44%
Independent Jim Hennager 17,649 1.15% N/A
Independent Michael Luick-Thrams 4,441 0.29% N/A
Write-ins 1,685 0.11% +0.03%
Majority 376,547 24.43% -6.62%
Turnout 1,541,036
Republican hold Swing

References

  1. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
  2. ↑ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
  3. 1 2 Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  4. 1 2 3 Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
  5. ↑ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  6. ↑ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  7. ↑ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
  10. 1 2 "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  11. ↑ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
  12. ↑ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  13. ↑ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  14. ↑ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
  16. ↑ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  17. ↑ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  18. ↑ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  19. ↑ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  20. ↑ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
  21. ↑ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  22. ↑ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  23. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 30, 2016.
  24. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  25. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 30, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2016.
  26. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  27. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  28. ↑ "Official Results General Election". Iowa Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
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