2020 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. In the 2016 election, Maine split its vote for the first time since 1828, awarding one electoral vote to Donald Trump as he got the most votes in Maine's 2nd congressional district.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Maine
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Jo Jorgensen
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Home state Florida Delaware South Carolina
Running mate Mike Pence TBA Spike Cohen
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

TBA

Elections in Maine

Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked-choice voting for the presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4] Prior to 2019, no other American state thus far has used a voting system other than first-past-the-post at the national (presidential) level.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[5]

2020 Maine Republican primary[6]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[7]
Donald Trump 95,360 83.85 22
Blank ballots 18,368 16.15 0
Total 113,728 100% 22

Democratic primary

In an electoral upset, moderate candidate Joe Biden won the state, which primary opponent Bernie Sanders previously won in 2016.

2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 68,729 33.37 11
Bernie Sanders 66,826 32.45 9
Elizabeth Warren 32,055 15.57 4
Michael Bloomberg 24,294 11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 4,364 2.12
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn†) 2,826 1.37
Tulsi Gabbard 1,815 0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) 696 0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 313 0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) 218 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 201 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 183 0.09
Blank ballots 3,417 1.66
Total 205,937 100% 24

† Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Results by county
2020 Maine Democratic primary

(results per county)[8]

County Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang Tom Steyer Deval Patrick Marianne Williamson Cory Booker Blank ballots Total votes cast
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Androscoggin 4,076 34.20 3,639 30.54 1,431 12.01 1,762 14.79 246 2.06 139 1.17 160 1.34 47 0.39 22 0.18 35 0.29 20 0.17 14 0.12 326 2.74 11,917
Aroostook 2,558 46.15 1,256 22.66 361 6.51 851 15.35 88 1.59 50 0.90 34 0.61 28 0.51 14 0.25 11 0.20 11 0.20 16 0.29 265 4.78 5,543
Cumberland 20,555 31.18 22,187 33.66 12,701 19.27 6,766 10.26 1,521 2.31 957 1.45 413 0.63 149 0.23 63 0.10 37 0.06 32 0.05 43 0.07 500 0.76 65,924
Franklin 1,226 33.93 1,329 36.78 414 11.46 390 10.79 49 1.36 40 1.11 40 1.11 18 0.50 11 0.30 16 0.44 7 0.19 5 0.14 68 1.88 3,613
Hancock 2,988 31.28 3,328 34.84 1,756 18.39 1,005 10.52 171 1.79 125 1.31 32 0.34 31 0.32 19 0.20 2 0.02 10 0.10 8 0.08 76 0.80 9,551
Kennebec 5,651 35.59 4,775 30.07 2,222 13.99 2,062 12.99 314 1.98 208 1.31 185 1.17 65 0.41 29 0.18 17 0.11 20 0.13 13 0.08 318 2.00 15,879
Knox 2,586 32.44 2,611 32.75 1,486 18.64 892 11.19 106 1.33 102 1.28 65 0.82 22 0.28 1 0.01 9 0.11 4 0.05 5 0.06 83 1.04 7,972
Lincoln 2,138 34.21 2,020 32.33 979 15.67 753 12.05 117 1.87 86 1.38 47 0.75 17 0.27 5 0.08 21 0.34 2 0.03 4 0.06 60 0.96 6,249
Oxford 2,282 35.52 2,199 34.23 739 11.50 736 11.46 99 1.54 66 1.03 93 1.45 30 0.47 8 0.12 3 0.05 10 0.16 6 0.09 154 2.40 6,425
Penobscot 5,392 33.24 5,526 34.07 2,138 13.18 2,045 12.61 265 1.63 216 1.33 125 0.77 89 0.55 27 0.17 23 0.14 22 0.14 20 0.12 332 2.05 16,220
Piscataquis 520 36.31 425 29.68 147 10.27 234 16.34 22 1.54 17 1.19 8 0.56 7 0.49 2 0.14 2 0.14 4 0.28 3 0.21 41 2.86 1,432
Sagadahoc 2,274 32.15 2,054 29.04 1,245 17.60 830 11.74 128 1.81 94 1.33 69 0.98 14 0.20 10 0.14 3 0.04 3 0.04 1 0.01 347 4.91 7,072
Somerset 1,553 36.46 1,225 28.76 360 8.45 699 16.41 86 2.02 45 1.06 53 1.24 38 0.89 12 0.28 5 0.12 12 0.28 6 0.14 166 3.90 4,260
Waldo 1,902 29.64 2,469 38.48 1,038 16.18 664 10.35 101 1.57 69 1.08 44 0.69 18 0.28 8 0.12 4 0.06 9 0.14 7 0.11 83 1.29 6,416
Washington 1,131 36.41 892 28.72 389 12.52 410 13.20 61 1.96 48 1.55 30 0.97 10 0.32 4 0.13 5 0.16 4 0.13 8 0.26 114 3.67 3,106
York 11,781 35.42 10,454 31.43 4,286 12.88 4,154 12.49 904 2.72 523 1.57 414 1.24 109 0.33 77 0.23 25 0.08 31 0.09 24 0.07 483 1.45 33,265
UOCAVA 116 10.61 437 39.98 363 33.21 41 3.75 86 7.87 41 3.75 3 0.27 4 0.37 1 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.09 1,093
Total 68,729 33.37 66,826 32.45 32,055 15.57 24,294 11.80 4,364 2.12 2,826 1.37 1,815 0.88 696 0.34 313 0.15 218 0.11 201 0.10 183 0.09 3,417 1.66 205,937

Libertarian nominee
  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Lean D June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Likely D April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Likely D June 25, 2020
Politico[13] Lean D April 19, 2020
RCP[14] Lean D June 22, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe D March 24, 2020
CNN[16] Safe D June 25, 2020
JHK Forecasts[17] Safe D June 27, 2020

Polling
with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 6%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 54% 4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP Jul 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% –
with Joe Biden in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% 3%
with Joe Biden in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 46% 49% 4%
Former candidates
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 52% 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% –
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% –
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 7%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% –
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% –
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% 3%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 3%
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 44% 7%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 43% 8%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 47% 49% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 48% 47% 5%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10-13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 37% 30%[lower-alpha 2]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10-13, 2020 515 (LV) – 28% 41% 31%[lower-alpha 3]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10-13, 2020 493 (LV) – 41% 34% 28%[lower-alpha 4]

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 15%
  3. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
  4. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Retrieved 2017-08-25.
  4. Writer, Scott ThistleStaff (2019-09-06). "Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections". Press Herald. Retrieved 2019-09-06.
  5. "Maine Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  6. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Tabulations June 12, 2018". www.maine.gov. Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  7. "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  8. "March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election – Democratic". Maine.gov. Maine Department of the Secretary of State. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  17. "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.
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