2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6]
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 268,029 | 44.05 | 39 |
| Bernie Sanders | 200,456 | 32.95 | 28 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) | 35,537 | 5.84 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 24,868 | 4.09 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 3,014 | 0.50 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,921 | 0.32 | 0 |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 754 | 0.12 | 0 |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 668 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Roque De La Fuente III | 628 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 242 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Henry Hewes | 208 | 0.03 | 0 |
| Michael A. Ellinger | 184 | 0.03 | 0 |
| Total | 536,509[lower-alpha 1] | 87.92%[lower-alpha 2] | 67 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | June 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Tossup | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Tossup | June 22, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15] | Lean D (flip) | March 24, 2020 |
| CNN[16] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
| JHK Forecasts[17] | Lean D (flip) | June 27, 2020 |
| The Economist[18] | Tossup | June 27, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
| 270 to Win | May 26 – June 16, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 47.0% | 43.0% | 10.0% | Biden + 4.0 |
| Real Clear Politics | May 30 – June 16, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 46.3% | 42.3% | 11.4% | Biden + 4.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Until June 17, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 47.5% | 42.7% | 9.8% | Biden + 4.8 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8-16, 2020 | 650 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 5] | 8% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Jun 13–15, 2020 | 1,368 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14, 2020 | 201 (LV)[lower-alpha 7] | – | 44% | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 8] | – |
| Fox News | May 30 – Jun 2, 2020 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3% | 42% | 46% | 6%[lower-alpha 9] | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31, 2020 | 329 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] | – | 45% | 44% | 9% | 2% |
| HighGround Inc. | May 18–22, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 47% | 4%[lower-alpha 11] | 4%[lower-alpha 12] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14, 2020 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 9–11, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | 1%[lower-alpha 14] | 6% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Apr 7–8, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 52% | – | – |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College | Mar 10–15, 2020 | 2,523 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 5% |
| Monmouth University | Mar 11–14, 2020 | 847 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 6% |
| Univision | Mar 6–11, 2020 | 1,036 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Mar 3–4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 49% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 2–3, 2020 | 666 (V) | – | 46% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Climate Nexus | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 42% | – | 13% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[upper-alpha 1] | Jan 22–24, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 2–4, 2020 | 760 (V) | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Dec 3–4, 2019 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.91% | 46% | 44% | 0%[lower-alpha 15] | 10% |
| Emerson College | Oct 25–28, 2019 | 901 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–23, 2019 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | – |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | Sep 9–12, 2019 | 520 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 42% | 12% | 3% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Aug 13–14, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward LLC | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 1–2, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | – | 7% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Feb 12–13, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Four-way race
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Jo Jorgensen (L) |
Howie Hawkins (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.33% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
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See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
- Poll sponsored by 314 Action
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
- Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[7]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
- "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
- Includes "refused"
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- "Refused" with 1%
- Refused with 0%
- Refused with 0%
- Refused with 0%
- Refused with 1%
- Refused with 1%
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
- Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- "Arizona Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
- "Arizona Election Results". results.arizona.vote. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.
- The Economist https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president. Retrieved 2020-06-27. Missing or empty
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