2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Primary elections
The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[3]
Republican primary
The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4] Traditionally, the top three or four candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.
County won by these popular vote results:
Trump—85–90%
Trump—80–85%
Congressional district won by these popular vote results:
Trump—80–85%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 129,734 | 84.4 | 22 |
| Bill Weld | 13,844 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (write in) | 1,116 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar (write in) | 1,076 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Mary Maxwell | 929 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 838 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mike Bloomberg (write in) | 801 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Bernie Sanders (write in) | 753 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mitt Romney (write in) | 632 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Scattered write-ins | 537 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Eric Merrill | 524 | 0.3 | 0 |
| William N. Murphy | 447 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard (write in) | 369 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Joe Biden (write in) | 330 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Matthew John Matern | 268 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Stephen B. Comley | 202 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer (write in) | 191 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (write in) | 162 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Elizabeth Warren (write in) | 157 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 148 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Rick Kraft | 117 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Juan Payne | 83 | 0.1 | 0 |
| President R. Boddie | 72 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Robert Ardini | 77 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bob Ely | 68 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Larry Horn | 65 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Star Locke | 66 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Zoltan Istvan | 56 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Total | 153,654 | 100% | 22 |
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[7]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[lower-alpha 1] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | 76,384 | 25.6 | 9 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 72,454 | 24.3 | 9 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 58,714 | 19.7 | 6 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 27,429 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Joe Biden | 24,944 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer | 10,732 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 9,755 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang | 8,312 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bloomberg (write-in)[12][9] | 4,777 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick | 1,271 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Donald Trump (write-in Republican)[9] | 1,219 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Michael Bennet | 952 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 152 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Other write-ins[lower-alpha 2] | 173 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Kamala Harris (withdrawn) | 129 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 99 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Steve Burke | 86 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Julián Castro (withdrawn) | 83 | 0.0 | 0 |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 83 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Koos | 72 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Steve Bullock (withdrawn) | 64 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Michael A. Ellinger | 19 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David John Thistle | 53 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Lorenz Kraus | 52 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Robby Wells | 45 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Henry Hewes | 43 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sam Sloan | 34 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mosie Boyd | 32 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mark Stewart Greenstein | 31 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Gleiberman (withdrawn) | 30 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Thomas James Torgesen | 30 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Rita Krichevsky | 23 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bill Weld (write-in Republican)[9] | 16 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jason Evritte Dunlap | 12 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Roque De La Fuente III | 11 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Raymond Michael Moroz | 8 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Total | 298,377 | 100% | 24 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Lean D | June 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Lean D | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Lean D | June 25, 2020 |
| Politico[16] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
| RCP[17] | Tossup | June 22, 2020 |
| Niskanen[18] | Lean D | March 24, 2020 |
| CNN[19] | Lean D | June 25, 2020 |
| JHK Forecasts[20] | Likely D | June 27, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
| 270 to Win | June 13, 2020 – June 16, 2020 | June 18, 2020 | 49.0% | 42.0% | 9.0% | Biden + 7.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Until June 16, 2020 | June 24, 2020 | 50.3% | 42.4% | 7.3% | Biden + 7.9 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 13-16, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3% | 42% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 5] | 3% |
| Saint Anselm College | Apr 23-27, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 50% | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 19–25, 2020 | 569 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 44% | 8% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel | Feb 8–10, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3% | 46% | 44% | 11% | – |
| McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal | Feb 4–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49%[lower-alpha 7] | 45% | –[lower-alpha 8] | –[lower-alpha 9] |
| Marist College/NBC News | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 2,223 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 51% | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
| 547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 46% | – | 13% | ||
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | – | 6% |
| Emerson College | Sep 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 55% | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 53% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 55% | – | – |
| American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 53% | – | 8% |
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with John Kasich and Joe Biden
with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
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See also
Notes
- Number of pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[10][11]
- Other write-ins (173 votes) does not include Michael Bloomberg (4,777 votes), Donald Trump (1,219 votes) and Bill Weld (16 votes). Total number of all write-ins was 6,185 votes.[9]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 5%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Data not yet released
- Data not yet released
- Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Data not yet released
- Data not yet released
- "Someone else" with 9%
- Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
- Would not vote with 2%
- Partisan clients
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
- Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". Associated Press. KRCR.
- "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
- "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
- "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 13, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 13, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins (last update: 19:06 Feb.13)". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
- "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
- Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.
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