2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
The 2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee won its bid to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3][4] The other finalist cities were Houston and Miami.
As of March 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. Wisconsin Republican politicians Paul Ryan and Scott Walker both declined to run against Trump. The remaining major declared candidate vying for the Democratic presidential nomination is former Vice President Joe Biden.
Primary elections
Effects of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several states delayed their scheduled primaries and extended the vote-by-mail period. Concerns were raised by health officials, poll workers, and voters that in-person voting at the height of the pandemic would be unsafe for vulnerable individuals.[5] Governor Tony Evers (D) signed an executive order for all-mail-in election, but the order was rejected by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature.[6]
On April 2, although U.S. District Judge William M. Conley refused to postpone the election, he extended the deadline for absentee voting to April 13 (ordering clerks not to release any election data before that date).[7][8] However, on April 6, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Conley's decision, meaning that all absentee ballots must still be postmarked by "election day, Tuesday, April 7" even though it will still be acceptable for the ballots to be received by the clerks as late as April 13.[9][10] The Supreme Court of the United States, "did not alter the provision in Conley's amended order which prohibits the reporting of results until April 13".[11]
Governor Evers then called a special session of the legislature to postpone in-person voting, but the session ended within minutes without action, forcing the primary to go on as planned.[12]
Despite having previously expressed the view that he would violate the law by doing so,[13] on April 6, Evers issued an executive order which, if enforced, would have postponed the April 7 elections until the tentative date of June 9.[14][15] Republican leaders immediately announced that they would challenge the order in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.[14] The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the elections, thus meaning that Evers' executive order was nullified, and that the elections would be held as scheduled on April 7.[16]
This was appealed to a federal court who sided with the Governor, and that was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which on a 5–4 vote, upheld the State court's ruling.[17]
Voting was somewhat chaotic, with people waiting in the rain for hours in some cases in masks and social distancing.[18] However, by the time the election concluded, Milwaukee Election Commissioner Neil Albrecht stated that despite some of the problems, the in-person voting ran smoothly.[19]
Democratic primary
Candidate | Votes[22] | % | Delegates[23] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 581,463 | 62.86% | 56 |
Bernie Sanders | 293,441 | 31.72% | 28 |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 14,060 | 1.52% | |
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 8,846 | 0.96% | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 6,079 | 0.66% | |
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 5,565 | 0.60% | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 4,946 | 0.53% | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 3,349 | 0.36% | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 836 | 0.09% | |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 529 | 0.06% | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 475 | 0.05% | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 311 | 0.03% | |
Uncommitted | 3,590 | 0.39% | |
Scattering | 1,575 | 0.17% | |
Total | 925,165 | 100% | 84 |
100% precincts reporting[24]
Republican primary
Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Wisconsin's 52 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[25]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 616,782 | 97.87% | 52 |
Adam Nicholas Paul (write-in) | 246 | 0.04% | |
Uninstructed | 11,246 | 1.78% | |
Scattering | 1,924 | 0.31% | |
Total | 630,198 | 100% | 52 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[26] | Tossup | June 19, 2020 |
Inside Elections[27] | Tossup | April 3, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
Politico[29] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
RCP[30] | Tossup | June 22, 2020 |
Niskanen[31] | Lean D (flip) | March 24, 2020 |
CNN[32] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
JHK Forecasts[33] | Likely D (flip) | June 27, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
270 to Win | June 12, 2020 – June 25, 2020 | June 28, 2020 | 47.6% | 41.2% | 11.2% | Biden + 6.4 |
Real Clear Politics | May 30, 2020 – June 25, 2020 | June 28, 2020 | 48.0% | 41.8% | 10.2% | Biden + 6.2 |
FiveThirtyEight | Until June 25, 2020 | June 29, 2020 | 49.4% | 41.4% | 9.2% | Biden + 8.0 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group | Jun 25-26, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.04% | 46% | 45% | 8%[lower-alpha 3] | 2% | |
Marquette Law School | Jun 14-18, 2020 | 805 (RV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7%[lower-alpha 4] | 3% | |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Jun 12-16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 55% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 6% | |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8-15, 2020 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 38% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] | 8% | |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12-14, 2020 | 231 (LV)[lower-alpha 7] | – | 44% | 48% | 5%[lower-alpha 8] | – | |
Fox News | May 30 - Jun 2, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 9] | 5% | |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29-31, 2020 | 382 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] | – | 45% | 45% | 5% | 6% | |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10-14, 2020 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 11] | 10% | |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | May 6-8, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 51% | – | 8% | |
Marquette Law School | May 3–7, 2020 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] | 4% | |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 1] | April 20–21, 2020 | 1,415 (RV) | – | 45% | 50% | – | 4% | |
Ipsos | April 15–20, 2020 | 645 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 43% | – | – | |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | April 13–15, 2020 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | – | – | |
Hart Research/CAP Action[upper-alpha 2] | April 6–8, 2020 | 303 (RV) | – | 47% | 48% | 2% | 3% | |
Marquette Law School | March 24–29, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | 2% | |
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | March 17–25, 2020 | 822 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% | |
Change Research | Mar 21–23, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 6% | |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Mar 17–19, 2020 | 600 (RV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | – | |
Public Policy Polling | March 10–11, 2020 | 1,727 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | – | 6% | |
YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8, 2020 | 459 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 6%[lower-alpha 14] | 7% | |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | March 5–7, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.7 % | 45% | 43% | – | – | |
Marquette Law School | Feb 19–23, 2020 | 686 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 15] | 2% | |
YouGov | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 936 (RV) | ± 4.0 % | 43% | 45% | – | – | |
Quinnipiac University | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.4 % | 49% | 42% | 4%[lower-alpha 16] | 4% | |
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute | Feb 6-18, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | – | 13% | |
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce | Jan 14–16, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5 % | 46% | 47% | – | 6% | |
Marquette Law School | Jan 8-12, 2020 | 701 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | 2% | |
Fox News | Jan 5–8, 2020 | 1,504 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 46% | 8%[lower-alpha 18] | 4% | |
Marquette Law School | Dec 3–8, 2019 | 652 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | 2%[lower-alpha 19] | 1% | |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | 8%[lower-alpha 20] | 5%[lower-alpha 21] | |
Marquette Law School | Nov 13–17, 2019 | 685 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 22] | 2% | |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | – | – | |
Marquette Law School | Oct 13–17, 2019 | 657 (LV) | – | 44% | 51% | 3%[lower-alpha 23] | 1% | |
Fox News | Sep 29–Oct 2, 2019 | 1,512 | ± 2.5% | 39% | 48% | 5% | 6% | |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 534 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% | – | |
Marquette Law School | Aug 25–29, 2019 | 672 (LV) | – | 44% | 51% | 3%[lower-alpha 24] | 2% | |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 535 | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 14% | – | |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 | ± 6.9% | 46% | 42% | – | 9% | |
Zogby Analytics | Apr 15–18, 2019 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | – | 11% | |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 616 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 53% | 5% | – | |
Emerson College | Mar 15–17, 2019 | 775 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Four-way race
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Jo Jorgensen (L) |
Howie Hawkins (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Whilton Strategies | Jun 14-19, 2020 | 846 (LV) | ± 3.37% | 36% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and generic Opponent
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See also
Notes
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Other party candidate" with 8%
- "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 2%
- "Refused" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
- "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- "Neither" with 4%
- "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- "Neither" with 3%; refused with 1%
- Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
- Neither with 1%; refused with 1%
- A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
- Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
- "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- A third party candidate with 8%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
- Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
- "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
- "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
- Other with 7%; wouldn't vote with 3%
- Neither with 2%; refused with 2%
- A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- Neither with 5%; refused with 2%
- Neither with 5%; refused with 0%
- "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
- "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
- Neither with 5%; refused with 1%
- "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
- "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
- "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- "Neither" with 3%; refused with 0%
- Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
- Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
- A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
- Neither with 4%; refused with 0%
- "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
- "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
- Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 3%
- Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
- A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
- Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
- "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
- Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 0.9%
- Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- "Third-party candidate" with 3%
- "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
- "Refused" with 0%
- Listed as "unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "likely to vote for Trump"
- "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
- "Refused" with 0%
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. 2018-06-20. Retrieved 2018-07-01.
- Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- "Wisconsin set to hold in-person voting in presidential primary". Reuters. 2020-04-04. Retrieved 2020-04-05.
- Coronavirus is disrupting the 2020 election. Here’s a list of all the primaries that have been postponed by Yelena Dzhanova, CNBC, 2 Apr 2020
- Todd Richmond (April 3, 2020). "Wisconsin barrels ahead with election despite virus fears". AP.
- Johnson, Martin (2020-04-04). "Wisconsin Republicans say they will ask Supreme Court to block extended absentee voting". TheHill. Retrieved 2020-04-05.
- "Supreme Court blocks extended absentee voting in Wisconsin primary". Channel3000.com. April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- Supreme Court of the United States (April 6, 2020). "REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. v. DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. No. 19A1016" (PDF). electionlawblog.org. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- "URGENT -- Wisconsin Supreme Court Orders Election Day to Continue and U.S. Supreme Court Alters Ballot Receipt Deadline; Tallying and Reporting Results Still Prohibited Until April 13 - COVID-19 | Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov. Retrieved 2020-04-07.
- Glauber, Bill; Marley, Patrick. "In matter of seconds, Republicans stall Gov. Tony Evers' move to postpone Tuesday election". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- Governor Evers Tweet April 1 2020
- CNN, Eric Bradner and Kate Sullivan (April 6, 2020). "Wisconsin governor orders delay of primary election until June". CNN. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- Ruthhart, Bill. "Wisconsin governor issues executive order to delay Tuesday's election until June". chicagotribune.com.
- "Wisconsin Supreme Court rules Evers cannot postpone election". WISN. Associated Press. April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/scotus-wisconsin-election/
- https://www.axios.com/wisconsin-results-coronavirus-supreme-court-0715ee50-a85b-41e8-a4ef-053290bc2692.html
- Milwaukee Election Chief: Despite Some Issues, In-Person Voting Went Smoothly
- "Wisconsin Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
- "April 2020 Spring Election and Presidential Preference Primary Results". Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- Canvass Results for 2020 Spring Election and Presidential Preference Vote - 4/7/2020 (PDF) (Report). Wisconsin Elections Commission. May 4, 2020. pp. 1–2. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
- https://www.newyorker.com/news/election-2020/wisconsin-primary-live-election-results
- "Wisconsin Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 5, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.