2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

An election will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Colorado
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Cory Gardner TBD
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Cory Gardner
Republican
Elections in Colorado

Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates is March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary between Andrew Romanoff and John Hickenlooper is scheduled for June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Cory Gardner is just one of two Republican U.S. Senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2016, the other being Susan Collins from Maine.[3]

Background

Cory Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner is widely considered vulnerable in this election cycle due to Colorado's Democratic trend in recent cycles and his support for President Donald Trump.[4] The seat is expected to be highly competitive and is widely considered the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The front-runner in the Democratic primary, former governor John Hickenlooper, has a double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[5]

However, various scandals which have plagued Hickenlooper, such as defying a subpoena issued by the Colorado Independent Ethics Commission, have left the seat hotly contested.[6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn
  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[8][9]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[10][11]

Endorsements
Cory Gardner
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent)
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates
Host

network

 Date Link(s) Participants
John

Hickenlooper

 Andrew

Romanoff

9NEWS June 9, 2020 [57] Present Present
CBS4

PBS 12

Colorado Sun

 June 10, 2020 [58][59] Present Present

Endorsements
John Hickenlooper
2020 Democratic Candidates
Former US Executive Branch Officials
US Federal Officials
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
  • Colorado Professional Fire Fighters[94]
  • Pipefitters Local 208[95]
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters[96]
Newspapers
Organizations
Andrew Romanoff
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Jena
Griswold		 John
Hickenlooper		 Mike
Johnston		 Andrew
Romanoff		 Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA/KUSA-TV/ColoradoPolitics June 19–24, 2020 575 (LV) ± 6.0% – 58% – 28% 15%
Myers Research and Strategic Services[upper-alpha 1] June 16–17, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 51% – 39% –
Unspecified polling firm[upper-alpha 1] October 2019 – (LV)[lower-alpha 4] – – 68% – 19% –
September 3, 2019 Johnston withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – – 60%[lower-alpha 5] 3% 9% 27%[lower-alpha 6]
–[lower-alpha 7] 66% – 17% 17%[lower-alpha 8]
August 21, 2019 Hickenlooper announces his candidacy
August 9, 2019 Griswold announces that she will not run
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group July 25–28, 2019 600 (LV) – 6% 61% 10% 8% 15%[lower-alpha 9]
Public Policy Polling (D) July 12–14, 2019 561 (LV) – 4% 44% 3% 12% 38%[lower-alpha 10]
Hypothetical polling
with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Dan
Baer		 John
Hickenlooper		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 11% 72% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Mike
Johnston		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 69% 14% 18%
with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Alice
Madden		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 69% 14% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Angela
Williams		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 70% 11% 18%

Caucus

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[127][128]

Caucus results

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[129]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[130]

Candidate Total Raw Votes Percentage of Vote Won (%)
Andrew Romanoff 8629 54.98
John Hickenlooper 4761 30.34
Trish Zornio 976 6.21
Stephany Rose Spaulding 771 4.91
Uncommitted 520 3.31
Erik Underwood 35 0.22

Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper
Democratic Andrew Romanoff
Total votes 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Primary

Declared

Results
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Gaylon Kent
Libertarian Raymon Doane
Total votes 100.0%

Unity Party

Nominee
  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[133]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention

Withdrawn

Others

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[142] Tossup June 18, 2020
Inside Elections[143] Lean D (flip) April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[144] Lean D (flip) April 30, 2020
Daily Kos[145] Lean D (flip) June 4, 2020
Politico[146] Tossup April 19, 2020
RCP[147] Lean D (flip) June 25, 2020
Niskanen[148] Likely D (flip) April 28, 2020

Endorsements
Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
Federal Officials
Organizations

Polling
with John Hickenlooper
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 John
Hickenlooper (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Keating Research (D) May 1–3, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 36% 54% 10%[lower-alpha 11]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–19, 2020 379 ± 4.4% 31% 48% 21%[lower-alpha 12]
Keating Research (D) October 10–14, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 42% 53% 5%
Emerson College August 16–19, 2019 1,000 ± 3.0% 40% 53% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 3] August 13–14, 2019 617 ± 3.9% 39% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 8–11, 2019 739 ± 3.6% 38% 51% 12%
Hypothetical polling
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 3] August 13–14, 2019 617 ± 3.9% 38% 48% 14%
Global Strategy Group Jan 31-Feb 4, 2019 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
DFM Research January 2–5, 2019 550 ± 4.2% 38% 46% 16%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 4] December 2–4, 2018 540 ± 4.2% 41% 47% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] August 2–3, 2017 628 ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] June 30 – July 1, 2017 870 ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 50% 18%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%[lower-alpha 13]
Former candidates
with Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 Mike
Johnston (D)		 Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 3] August 13–14, 2019 617 ± 3.9% 39% 50% – 11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 2%[lower-alpha 14] 14%

Results
United States Senate election in Colorado, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent)
Democratic TBA
Libertarian TBA
Constitution Dan Doyle
Socialist Veronique Bellamy
Unity Stephen Evans
Independent Joey Camp
Independent Lisa Garcia
Independent Christopher Springer
Independent Donald Willoughby
Independent Marti Wolf
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  4. Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  5. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  6. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Not yet released
  5. Standard VI response
  6. Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  7. With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  8. Undecided with 17%
  9. Undecided with 15%
  10. Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  11. Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  12. "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  13. "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  14. Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%

References
  1. Griswold, Jena (2019). "Major Party Candidate Petition". Colorado Secretary of State. State of Colorado. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  2. "Colorado Revised Statutes Title 1 Elections § 1-4-801 Designation of party candidates by petition". Colorado Revised Statutes. State of Colorado. 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  3. Skelley, Geoffrey (2019-07-01). "Democrats Found A Major Recruit To Take On Susan Collins in 2020". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2019-08-15.
  4. Rothenberg, Stuart (March 5, 2019). "The most vulnerable Republican senator in 2020". Roll Call.
  5. Dickinson, Tim (November 22, 2019). "The Battle for the Senate". Rolling Stone.
  6. Hulse, Carl (June 27, 2020). "Hickenlooper Stumbles in Colorado Race, Complicating Democrats' Senate Push". The New York Times.
  7. "GARDNER, CORY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  8. Frank, John (April 13, 2020). "How the coronavirus snuffed the primary for U.S. Senate and cemented Hickenlooper as the front-runner". Colorado Sun. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
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  49. Donovan, Kerry [@KerryDonovanSD5] (August 22, 2019). "I'm proud to support @Hickenlooper for #COSen. We need him in the Senate to bring people together, fight for our public lands, and work for Colorado families to bring down the cost of health care. #copolitics" (Tweet). Retrieved August 25, 2019 – via Twitter.
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  60. @MichaelBennet (August 22, 2019). "Washington is broken. We need more people who can put aside politics and make progress. John is a good friend with a lot to offer Colorado. Glad to see him continue this fight" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  61. @JoeBiden (August 22, 2019). "A Democratic president will need a Democratic Senate in 2021 to reverse the damage that @realDonaldTrump has done to this country. Coloradans are fortunate to have @Hickenlooper in the race and continuing the fight" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  63. Castro, Julian [@JulianCastro] (August 22, 2019). "One of the best ways to kickstart change in this country is to send Cory Gardner and Mitch McConnell home. I'm glad to see Governor @Hickenlooper wants to continue his service to the people of Colorado, who deserve someone in the Senate fighting for them. #COSen" (Tweet). Retrieved August 22, 2019 – via Twitter.
  64. @SenGillibrand (February 29, 2020). "I appreciate the warm welcome, @Hickenlooper! Looking forward to helping your campaign in whatever way I can" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  65. Harris, Kamala [@KamalaHarris] (August 22, 2019). "With Mitch McConnell blocking pretty much every good idea in the book, taking back a Senate majority has never been more critical. @Hickenlooper can help us win one & will be a fantastic U.S. senator. So watch his video and chip in a few bucks if you can" (Tweet). Retrieved August 22, 2019 – via Twitter.
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  69. Paul, Jesse (August 24, 2019). "DSCC officially throws their weight behind Hickenlooper in U.S. Senate race, irking primary rivals". The Colorado Sun.
  70. @Bob_Casey (August 22, 2019). "I'm excited to support Governor Hickenlooper in #COSen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  71. https://twitter.com/ChrisCoonsforDE/status/1273663502415208449
  72. Durbin, Dick [@DickDurbin] (December 6, 2019). "If we're going to take back the Senate, we need to flip GOP-held seats in critical states like Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. Pitch in now to support Democratic candidates @Hickenlooper, @GreenfieldIowa, & @CalforNC:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  73. @timkaine (August 22, 2019). "I'm glad to see @Hickenlooper stepping up to help us take back the Senate. He's an innovator and problem solver whose career has been about improving Coloradans' lives, and we sure could use him here in Congress!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  74. https://twitter.com/JeffMerkley/status/1273046216402747393
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  76. @Hickenlooper (February 26, 2020). "Gabby Giffords is a hero & a fighter. I'm honored to have her support" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  85. @jessiedanielson (August 22, 2019). "From my work with @Hickenlooper to make our elections more secure, advance equal pay, help returning veterans get a leg up, and crack down on wage theft, I've seen firsthand many of the great things he's done for Colorado. I am proud to endorse him for U.S. Senate. #copolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  86. @KerryDonovanSD5 (August 22, 2019). "I'm proud to support @Hickenlooper for #COSen. We need him in the Senate to bring people together, fight for our public lands, and work for Colorado families to bring down the cost of health care. #copolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  89. @Hickenlooper (March 3, 2020). "Thank you @McCluskieforCO—proud to have your support! I look forward to partnering with you to make progress for high country and the rest of our state" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  90. @Hickenlooper (March 11, 2020). "Representative @Sully_720 has felt the pain of gun violence and mass shootings firsthand. I was proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with him after the Aurora theater shooting to take on the NRA, and I'm proud to have him with me in this campaign" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  98. Luning, Ernest (May 19, 2020). "Congressional Black Caucus PAC endorses Hickenlooper in Senate primary". Colorado Politics.
  99. @Hickenlooper (January 2, 2020). "I am proud to earn the endorsement of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus @BOLDDems. I look forward to working with them in the Senate to prioritize Colorado workers and get Washington working again" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  100. "John Hickenlooper for Senate (D-CO)- Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  101. Kornbluh, Jacob (May 20, 2020). "DMFI announces fourth wave of congressional endorsements". Jewish Insider.
  102. @dscc (August 23, 2019). ".@Hickenlooper is running against Cory Gardner — the most vulnerable Republican up in 2020! If we want to end the gridlock, cut the costs of health care and prescription drugs, and act on climate — we need to flip this #COSen seat" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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