2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The elections will coincide with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
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The incumbent is Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018.[1] He is running for Governor of Montana a second time in the 2020 election after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock, which means that the contest for the U.S. House of Representatives will be an open race.[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party[3]
- John Evankovich, electrical contractor[4]
- Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative[5]
- Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran[4]
- Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014[6]
- Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, former state senator, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014[7]
Declined
- Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for governor)[2]
- Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor)[8]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former Lieutenant Governor of Montana[9]
Endorsements
| Matt Rosendale |
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Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Russell Fagg |
Joe Dooling |
Timothy Johnson |
Al Olszewski |
Denny Rehberg |
Matt Rosendale |
Corey Stapleton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | October 7–16, 2019 | 99 (LV) | – | – | 1% | <1% | – | – | 32% | 22% | 44% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1] | February 24–26, 2019 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 24% | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 15% |
| – | – | 39% | 46% | – | 13% | ||||||
| 18% | 10% | – | 51% | – | 18% | ||||||
| 15% | – | 31% | 37% | – | 16% | ||||||
| 17% | – | – | 48% | 19% | 16% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Rosendale | 104,575 | 48.3% | |
| Republican | Corey Stapleton | 71,902 | 33.2% | |
| Republican | Debra Lamm | 14,462 | 6.7% | |
| Republican | Joe Dooling | 13,726 | 6.3% | |
| Republican | Mark McGinley | 7,818 | 3.6% | |
| Republican | John Evankovich | 3,983 | 1.8% | |
| Total votes | 216,466 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[14]
- Tom Winter, state representative[15]
Withdrew
- Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[16]
Declined
- Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate[17]
- Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017
Endorsements
| Tom Winter |
|---|
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Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rains |
Kathleen Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | October 7–16, 2019 | 40 (LV) | – | 6% | 69% | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | 133,436 | 89.5% | |
| Democratic | Tom Winter | 15,698 | 10.5% | |
| Total votes | 149,134 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Green Party
Nominee
- John Gibney, anti-immigration activist[29]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | John Gibney | 690 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 690 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Lean R | June 9, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Likely R | May 22, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Likely R | April 23, 2020 |
| Politico[33] | Likely R | April 19, 2020 |
| Niskanen[34] | Lean R | April 28, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[35] | Likely R | April 30, 2020 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Kathleen Williams (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
Hypothetical polls with former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Rosendale | ||||
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | ||||
| Green | John Gibney | ||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 100.0% | ||||
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
- Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
References
- Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
- Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
- Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
- Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
- Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
- Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
- Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
- Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
- Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
- https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227705242579501057
- Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
- "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
- Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
- Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
- Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
- Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
- "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
- Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
- "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
- Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Facebook.
- "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020 – via Instagram.
- Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
- "2020 House Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Senate Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 House". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
- "2020 House Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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