2020 United States presidential election in Georgia

2020 United States presidential election in Georgia
	November 3, 2020
	November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; TBA;

The 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Georgia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 9, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018, has ruled out a bid for the presidency but has been mentioned as a possible vice-presidential candidate.[3]

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 24, 2020. On March 14, they were moved to May 19 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] On April 9, the primary elections were again rescheduled to June 9.[5]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Georgia's 76 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]

Democratic primary

2020 Georgia Democratic presidential primary[7]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[8]
Joe Biden	922,179	84.86%	105
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	101,668	9.36%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	21,906	2.02%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	9,117	0.84%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	7,657	0.70%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	6,346	0.58%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	5,154	0.47%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	4,317	0.40%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,117	0.38%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	1,752	0.16%
John Delaney (withdrawn)	1,476	0.14%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	1,042	0.10%
Total	1,086,731	100.00%	105

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[9]	Lean R	June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[10]	Lean R	April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]	Lean R	June 25, 2020
Politico[12]	Lean R	April 19, 2020
RCP[13]	Tossup	June 22, 2020
Niskanen[14]	Tossup	March 24, 2020
CNN[15]	Lean R	June 25, 2020
JHK Forecasts[16]	Tossup	June 26, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls


Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	December 19, 2019 – June 23, 2020	June 27, 2020	44.7%	49.0%	6.3%	Trump +4.3
FiveThirtyEight	February 27, 2020 – June 23, 2020	June 26, 2020	47.4%	46.0%	6.6%	Biden +1.4
270 to Win	May 21, 2020 – June 23, 2020	June 25, 2020	45.0%	45.0%	10.0%	Even

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
PPP/End Citizens United[upper-alpha 1]	Jun 25-26, 2020	734 (RV)	± 3.6%	45%	49%	–	6%
Fox News	Jun 20-23, 2020	1,013 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	4%[lower-alpha 3]	5%
PPP (D)	Jun 12-13, 2020	661 (V)	± 3.4%	46%	48%	–	6%
TargetSmart	May 21-27, 2020	321 (RV)	± 5.5%	44%	40%	10%[lower-alpha 4]	6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	May 16–18, 2020	1,339 (RV)	± 3.1%	47%	48%	3%[lower-alpha 5]	2%
The Progress Campaign (D)	May 6–15, 2020	2,893 (LV)	± 2%	47%	47%	–	6%[lower-alpha 6]
BK Strategies/Republican State Leadership Committee[upper-alpha 2]	May 11–13, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	46%	–	–
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 4-7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.38%	46%	47%	–	7%[lower-alpha 7]
Cygnal/David Ralston [lower-alpha 8]	April 25–27, 2020	591 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	44%	7%	5%
Battleground Connect/Doug Collins for Senate[lower-alpha 9]	March 31 – April 1, 2020	1,035 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	46%	–	6%
The Progress Campaign (D)	Mar 12–21, 2020	3,042 (RV)	± 4.5%	49%	47%	4%	–
University of Georgia	Feb 24 – March 2, 2020	1,117 (LV)	± 2.9%	51%	43%	4%	2%
Mason-Dixon	Dec 19–23, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	44%	–	5%
SurveyUSA	Nov 15–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	43%	47%	–	10%
Climate Nexus	Nov 4–10, 2019	688 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	5%
University of Georgia	Oct 30 – Nov 8, 2019	1,028 (RV)	± 3%	43%	51%	3%	4%[lower-alpha 10]
Zogby Analytics	Oct 28–30, 2019	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	46%	–	11%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Michael Bloomberg (D)	Other	Undecided
University of Georgia	Feb 24 – March 2, 2019	1,117 (LV)	± 2.9%	50%	42%	6%	3%
SurveyUSA	Nov 15–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	42%	-	14%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	Dec 19–23, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	52%	43%	-	5%
SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV	Nov 15–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	45%	41%	-	14%
Climate Nexus	Nov 4–10, 2019	688 (LV)	–	49%	42%	–	9%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution	Oct 30 – Nov 8, 2019	1,028 (RV)	± 3%	43%	46%	4%	5%[lower-alpha 11]
Zogby Analytics	Oct 28-30, 2019	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	38%	-	17%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV	Nov 15–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	43%	-	11%
Climate Nexus	Nov 4-10, 2019	688 (LV)	–	49%	44%	–	7%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution	Oct 30 – Nov 8, 2019	1,028 (RV)	± 3%	44%	45%	4%	7%[lower-alpha 12]
Zogby Analytics	Oct 28–30, 2019	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	42%	-	14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Other	Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D)	Mar 12–21, 2020	3,042 (RV)	± 4.5%	51%	46%	3%	–
University of Georgia	Feb 24 – March 2, 2019	1,117 (LV)	± 2.9%	52%	41%	5%	2%
Mason-Dixon	Dec 19–23, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	52%	42%	–	6%
SurveyUSA	Nov 15–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	47%	–	9%
Climate Nexus	Nov 4–10, 2019	688 (LV)	–	48%	46%	–	6%
University of Georgia	Oct 30 – Nov 8, 2019	1,028 (RV)	± 3%	44%	48%	4%	5%[lower-alpha 13]
Zogby Analytics	Oct 28–30, 2019	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	43%	48%	–	9%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Other	Undecided
University of Georgia	Feb 24 – March 2, 2019	1,117 (LV)	± 2.9%	52%	42%	4%	2%
Mason-Dixon	Dec 19–23, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	54%	40%	-	6%
SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV	Nov 15-18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 3.2%	45%	46%	-	9%
Climate Nexus	Nov 4–10, 2019	688 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	5%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution	Oct 30 – Nov 8, 2019	1,028 (RV)	± 3%	44%	47%	4%	5%[lower-alpha 14]
Zogby Analytics	Oct 28-30, 2019	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	42%	-	14%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Opponent	Other	Undecided
AJC	Jan 6–15, 2020	1,025 (V)	± 3.1%	43.6%	46.9%[lower-alpha 15]	1.8%[lower-alpha 16]	7.7%[lower-alpha 17]

Notes

Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Other" with 3%; "would not vote" with 1%
"Different candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%
"Someone else" with 3%
Listed as "other/undecided"
"Undecided" with 5%; "Did not answer" with 2%
Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
Poll sponsored by Doug Collins' campaign
Wouldn't vote with 1%; don't know/refused with 3%
Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 5%
Wouldn't vote with 3%; don't know/refused with 4%
Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 3%
Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 3%
"Vote against Trump" with 46.9%
Would not vote with 1.8%
Listed as "don't know/refused"

This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling
This poll was sponsored by a Republican-supporting organisation

References

Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
Rodrigo, Chris Mills (March 25, 2019). "Stacey Abrams addresses Biden rumors: We had a 'lovely lunch'". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
"Georgia presidential primaries postponed over coronavirus concerns". Associated Press. USA Today. March 14, 2020.
Mark Niesse (April 9, 2020). "Georgia primary delayed again to June 9 during coronavirus emergency". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
"Georgia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
"Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Georgia Secretary of State. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
"Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2020.
"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
"JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved June 27, 2020.

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[17] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-18] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[20] "Other" with 3%; "would not vote" with 1%

[21] "Different candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%

[22] "Someone else" with 3%

[23] Listed as "other/undecided"

[25] "Undecided" with 5%; "Did not answer" with 2%

[26] Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus

[27] Poll sponsored by Doug Collins' campaign

[28] Wouldn't vote with 1%; don't know/refused with 3%

[29] Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 5%

[30] Wouldn't vote with 3%; don't know/refused with 4%

[31] Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 3%

[32] Wouldn't vote with 2%; don't know/refused with 3%

[33] "Vote against Trump" with 46.9%

[34] Would not vote with 1.8%

[35] Listed as "don't know/refused"

[19] This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling

[24] This poll was sponsored by a Republican-supporting organisation

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] Rodrigo, Chris Mills (March 25, 2019). "Stacey Abrams addresses Biden rumors: We had a 'lovely lunch'". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2019.

[4] "Georgia presidential primaries postponed over coronavirus concerns". Associated Press. USA Today. March 14, 2020.

[5] Mark Niesse (April 9, 2020). "Georgia primary delayed again to June 9 during coronavirus emergency". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved April 9, 2020.

[GP-GOP-6] "Georgia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 10, 2020.

[GA-SOS-results-7] "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Georgia Secretary of State. Retrieved June 10, 2020.

[GA-AP-delegates-8] "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2020.

[9] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[10] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[11] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[12] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[13] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-14] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[15] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[16] "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved June 27, 2020.

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