2020 United States presidential election in Florida
The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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North Miami
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Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston. Milwaukee was ultimately decided as the host.[4][5]
Florida will also be incumbent president Donald Trump's home state for this election, after having identified New York as his home in 2016.[6] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be from Florida.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.
Republican primary
The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 1,162,984 | 93.79 | 122 |
| Bill Weld | 39,319 | 3.17 | |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 25,464 | 2.05 | |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 12,172 | 0.98 | |
| Total | 1,239,939 | 100% | 122 |
Democratic primary
Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[9][10][11]
The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,077,375 | 61.95 | 162 |
| Bernie Sanders | 397,311 | 22.84 | 57 |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 146,544 | 8.43 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 39,886 | 2.29 | 0 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 32,875 | 1.89 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 17,276 | 0.99 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 8,712 | 0.50 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 5,286 | 0.30 | 0 |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 4,244 | 0.24 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 2,510 | 0.14 | 0 |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 1,744 | 0.10 | 0 |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 1,583 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 1,507 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Julián Castro (withdrawn) | 1,036 | 0.06 | 0 |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 664 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 661 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Total | 1,739,214 | 100% | 219 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Tossup | June 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Tossup | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
| Politico[18] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
| RCP[19] | Tossup | June 22, 2020 |
| Niskanen[20] | Tossup | March 24, 2020 |
| CNN[21] | Tossup | June 25, 2020 |
| JHK Forecasts[22] | Likely D (flip) | June 27, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
| 270 to Win | May 28 – June 18, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 48.6% | 43.0% | 8.4% | Biden + 5.6 |
| Real Clear Politics | May 8 – June 18, 2020 | June 19, 2020 | 49.8% | 43.6% | 6.6% | Biden + 6.2 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Until June 26, 2020 | June 26, 2020 | 49.3% | 42.1% | 8.6% | Biden + 7.2 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | Jun 20-23, 2020 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3% | 40% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 3] | 6% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8-18, 2020 | 651 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 47% | 4%[lower-alpha 4] | 7% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12-14, 2020 | 713 (LV)[lower-alpha 5] | – | 43% | 50% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | – |
| Gravis Marketing/OANN | Released Jun 11, 2020 | –[lower-alpha 7] | – | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| American Greatness/TIPP | Jun 9-11, 2020 | 875 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | 4%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31, 2020 | 1,186 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] | – | 45% | 48% | 2% | 4% |
| Cygnal (R) | May 18-30, 2020 | 881 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43.8% | 47% | 3.3%[lower-alpha 10] | 5.9% |
| St. Pete Polls | May 26–27, 2020 | 4,763 (RV) | ± 1.4% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 2.7%[lower-alpha 11] | 3.1% |
| Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14, 2020 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] | 10% |
| Florida Atlantic University | May 8–12, 2020 | 928 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
| Fox News | Apr 18–21, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac | Apr 16–20, 2020 | 1,385 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 7% |
| St. Pete Polls | Apr 16–17, 2020 | 5,659 (RV) | ± 1.3% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| University of North Florida | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 | 3,244 (RV) | ± 1.7% | 40% | 46% | – | 8% |
| AtlasIntel | Mar 14–16, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% | – |
| Univision | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Florida Atlantic University | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 1,216 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| Saint Leo University | Feb 17–22, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 51% | – | 8% |
| University of North Florida | Feb 10–18, 2020 | 668 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | 3% |
| Florida Atlantic University | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 1,285 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 1] | Jan 3–12, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 45% | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon | Dec 11–16, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | 8% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | – | – |
| University of North Florida | Oct 14–20, 2019 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 48% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] | 3% |
| Florida Atlantic University | Sep 12–15, 2019 | 934 | ± 3.1% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University | Jun 12–17, 2019 | 1,279 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 50% | 1% | 6% |
| St. Pete Polls | Jun 15–16, 2019 | 3,095 | ± 1.8% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Florida Atlantic University | May 16–19, 2019 | 1,007 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 | ± 6.9% | 48% | 44% | – | 7% |
Four-way race
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Jo Jorgensen (L) |
Howie Hawkins (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14-15, 2020 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 1%[lower-alpha 14] | <1%[lower-alpha 15] | 2% | 8% |
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and generic Opponent
with Mike Pence and Joe Biden
with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren
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See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- Not yet released
- "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
- "Third party" with 2.7%
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Wouldn't vote with 6%
- "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
- "Green nominee" with 0.4%
- Wouldn't vote with 7%
- Wouldn't vote with 8%
- Wouldn't vote with 6%
- Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
- "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
- "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
- Wouldn't vote with 8%
- Wouldn't vote with 8%
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
- "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
- "Florida Election Watch - President". floridaelectionwatch.gov. Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved June 27, 2020.
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