2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Gary Peters John James
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Gary Peters
Democratic
Elections in Michigan

Incumbent Gary Peters is one of two Democratic U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016; the other is Doug Jones from Alabama.[1] The primary is scheduled for August 4.[2] The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Gary Peters
U.S. federal officials
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent)
Total votes 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements
John James
U.S. Senators
  • Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida and former Governor of Florida[44]
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
  • Senate Leadership Fund[48]
  • Right to Life of Michigan[49]

Polling
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Schuette
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Bill
Schuette		 Undecided
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 296 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] – 59% 15% 26%

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James
Total votes 100.00%

Other candidates

Green Party

Declared
  • Marcia Squier, Green Party candidate for US Congress in 2016 and US Senate in 2018[50]
  • Anita Belle, reparations activist[51]

Independents

Declared
  • Frank Seldon Cupps (as a write-in candidate), affiliated with the Communist Party[52]
  • Gregory Charles Jones[37]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[53] Lean D June 18, 2020
Inside Elections[54] Lean D April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] Lean D April 30, 2020
Daily Kos[56] Lean D June 4, 2020
Politico[57] Lean D April 19, 2020
RCP[58] Lean D June 25, 2020
Niskanen[59] Safe D April 28, 2020

Endorsements
Gary Peters (D)
Federal officials
Organizations
John James (R)
Federal officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
John James vs. Gary Peters
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Gary Peters John James Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] Margin
Real Clear Politics January 3, 2020 – April 21, 2020 April 25, 2020 44.3% 37.5% Peters +6.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other/Undecided
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[98] June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 38% 14%[lower-alpha 4]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–17, 2020 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 29%[lower-alpha 5]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–16, 2020 826 (LV) ± 3.41% 50% 32% 18%[lower-alpha 6]
Marketing Resource Group (R) June 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 30% 33%[lower-alpha 7]
American Greatness/TIPP (R) June 9–12, 2020 907 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 35% 17%[lower-alpha 8]
Kiaer Research May 31 – June 7, 2020 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 48% 32% 20%[lower-alpha 9]
EPIC-MRA May 30 – June 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 36% 13%[lower-alpha 10]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] May 29–30, 2020 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 13%[lower-alpha 11]
Change Research/Crooked Media May 11–17, 2020 3,070 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 43% 9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [99][96] May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 36% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 28–29, 2020 1,270 (V) ± 3.2% 46% 37% 17%
FOX News April 18–21, 2020 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 36% 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[100] April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,019 (V) ± 3.1% 45% 38% 17%
Spry Strategies (R) March 30 – April 1, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[101][98] March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Marketing Resource Group (R) March 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 35% 13%
Firehouse/0ptimus March 5–7, 2020 550 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 41% 11%
Quinnipiac University February 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 39% 15%
Baldwin Wallace University January 8–20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Glengariff Group January 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% 16%
Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[102][99] November 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% 12%
Emerson College October 31 – November 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[103] October 10-16, 2019[lower-alpha 12] 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 35% 17%
Marketing Resource Group (R) October 7–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS News September 24–26, 2019 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 37% 10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) September 21–24, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2019 743 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 43% 14%
Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.

with Bob Carr and John James
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bob
Carr (R)		 John
James (R)		 Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes March 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 6%[lower-alpha 13] 27% 28%
with Bill Schuette
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bill
Schuette (R)		 Undecided
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 32% 17%
with Gary Peters and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D) May 8–10, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 42% 36% 21%
with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
MRG Jun 12-15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19.2% 30.3%[lower-alpha 14] 50.5%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 34% 16%[lower-alpha 15]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 38% 15%[lower-alpha 16]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%[lower-alpha 17]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 18]

Results
United States Senate election in Michigan, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent)
Republican John James
Green Anita Belle
Independent Gregory Jones
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Undecided with 12%; "Refused" with 2%
  5. Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  6. Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  7. Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
  8. Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  9. Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
  10. Includes "refused"
  11. "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
  14. "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
  15. Undecided with 15%; "Refused" with 1%
  16. Includes "Independent"
  17. Includes "Independent"
  18. Includes "Independent"
Partisan clients
  1. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates

References
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  45. James, John (August 29, 2019). "I was in the great city of Jackson last night to deliver the keynote address at their annual Lincoln Day Dinner. Great to see @TimWalberg and so many local leaders, activists and volunteers! Can't wait to put your kind gift in my office! #LetsFlyMI pic.twitter.com/BMUWJTFhdQ".
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  75. Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
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  88. Scott, Rick (2019-06-06). ".@JohnJamesMI launched his bid for the U.S. Senate today talking about his desire to serve. That's what his life has been about: service to his country. He's exactly the kind of servant-leader we need in Washington. Good luck, John!https://twitter.com/politico/status/1136620124029562883 …". @scottforflorida. Retrieved 2019-06-06.
  89. James, John (August 29, 2019). "I was in the great city of Jackson last night to deliver the keynote address at their annual Lincoln Day Dinner. Great to see @TimWalberg and so many local leaders, activists and volunteers! Can't wait to put your kind gift in my office! #LetsFlyMI pic.twitter.com/BMUWJTFhdQ".
  90. Schuette, Bill (2019-06-06). "Big announcement by John James! John James will be a great US senator. Onward!". @schuetteonduty. Retrieved 2019-06-06.
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  96. https://johnjamesforsenate.com/michigan-farmers-back-john/
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  98. https://www.factcheck.org/2018/05/restoration-pac/
  99. https://www.michiganadvance.com/2020/01/22/report-big-bucks-already-spent-in-ads-for-2020-michigan-candidates/
  100. https://rightmi.com/restoration-pac-releases-new-john-james-ad/
  101. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/01/super-pac-already-spending-nearly-1-million-against-peters/4126982002/
  102. https://www.mlive.com/politics/2019/11/partisan-attack-websites-independent-groups-enter-michigan-senate-race.html
  103. https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/12/complaint-alleges-peters-solicited-campaign-ads-from-dark-money-group.html
Official campaign websites
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