2020 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Montana
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Steve Daines
Republican
Elections in Montana

Originally this seat was projected to be a likely Republican hold.[1] However, Steve Bullock, Montana’s popular Democratic governor, entered the race on the last day to file, which has shifted the dynamics of the contest dramatically, and many political pundits now consider it as a competitive race and potential pickup for Democrats.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Endorsements
Steve Daines
U.S. Presidents
Businessmen

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 192,942 88.0%
Republican John Driscoll 13,944 6.4%
Republican Daniel Larson 12,319 5.6%
Total votes 219,205 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[12]

Withdrawn
  • Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[13]
  • Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[14]
  • Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[15] (remained on ballot)
  • Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[16] (endorsed Bullock)[17]
  • Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[18]

Declined

Endorsements
Steve Bullock
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
  • Mike Knowles, former Montana senate candidate
  • Cora Neumann, former Montana senate candidate
  • Jon Ossoff, filmmaker and 2020 Senate candidate in Georgia[32]
Organizations

Results
Results by county
Democratic primary results[36] [37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Bullock 144,949 95.5%
Democratic John Mues 3,740 2.5%
Democratic Mike Knoles (withdrawn) 3,165 2.1%
Total votes 151,854 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

TBD, After Susan Geise officially withdraws, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[38][39]

Withdrawn


Green Party

Nominee
  • Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services[4][44]

Eliminated in primary
  • Dennis Daneke, retired college professor[45][46]

Results

Green primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Wendie Fredrickson 502 66.4%
Green Dennis Daneke 254 33.6%
Total votes 756 100.0%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Tossup June 18, 2020
Inside Elections[48] Lean R April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean R April 30, 2020
Daily Kos[50] Lean R June 4, 2020
Politico[51] Lean R April 19, 2020
RCP[52] Tossup June 25, 2020
Niskanen[53] Tossup April 28, 2020

Endorsements
Steve Daines (R)
U.S. Presidents
Businessmen
Steve Bullock (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
  • Mike Knowles, former Montana senate candidate
  • Cora Neumann, former Montana senate candidate
  • Jon Ossoff, filmmaker and 2020 Senate candidate in Georgia[67]
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Daines (R)		 Steve
Bullock (D)		 Other /
Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 712 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–27, 2020 459 (LV) ± 4.6% 39% 46% 15%[lower-alpha 2]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] March 12–13, 2020 903 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 47% 6%
Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53%[lower-alpha 3] 47%
Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 36.2%[lower-alpha 4] 63.8%

Results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent)
Democratic Steve Bullock
Libertarian TBD
Green Wendie Fredrickson
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
  3. Steve Bullock with 38%, Wilmot Collins with 4%, Cora Neumann with 7%, Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
  4. Jack Ballard with 18.1%, Wilmot Collins with 9.4%, John Mues with 8.7%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates

References
  1. "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana". Politico. November 19, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  2. Nilsen, Ella; Zhou, Li (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  3. "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race". 2020-02-23.
  4. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  5. "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race". KPAX. 2020-02-23. Retrieved 2020-03-03.
  6. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233497372577148935
  7. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
  8. "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  9. Nilsen, Ella (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox.
  10. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
  11. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
  12. Michels, Holly (July 11, 2019). "Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race". Missoulian.
  13. "Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race". Great Falls Tribune. Great Falls Tribune. September 13, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  14. Collins, Wilmot. "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock". @CollinsWilmot. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  15. https://mobile.twitter.com/KnolesMichael/status/1236997949730611207
  16. Neumann, Cora. "Cora Neumann withdraws from Montana senate race, endorses Steve Bullock". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  17. https://twitter.com/LA_Hagen/status/1237018996026814465?s=19
  18. Stein, Perrin. "Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
  19. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
  20. Punke, Michael (2019-06-23). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
  21. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  22. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  23. Lu, Chris (March 9, 2020). "Excited to see Steve Bullock jump in. This is a critical race to help us take back the Senate. Please consider making a contribution. I just did". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  24. Blumenthal sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Bullock.
  25. Gillibrand, Kirsten (March 9, 2020). ".@stevebullockmt has proven to be one of the most effective governors in the country—now, he's running for Senate in Montana! Are you in to take back the Senate from Mitch McConnell?". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  26. Klobuchar, Amy (March 9, 2020). "MT Gov Steve Bullock is a fighter. He understands the needs of working families & believes in investing in education & job training. It's great to know he will continue this fight in his run for Senate (@Bullock4Senate) & will help flip the Senate blue!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  27. https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1255222362196377600
  28. Tester, Jon (March 9, 2020). "Washington needs more Montana common sense, and I know my friend @stevebullockmt has got it. His track record shows he's a proven fighter for the folks in our state, and can work across the aisle to get real results". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  29. Schatz, Brian (March 9, 2020). "Steve Bullock is IN. We win this seat and Mitch McConnell doesn't run the Senate anymore. Please help!!!!!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  30. Cooney, Mike. "Couldn't be more excited to have our Governor @stevebullockmt back out on the campaign trail in Montana. I'm so proud of everything we've accomplished—but we're not done fighting yet! #mtpol #mtsen #mtgov". @CooneyforMT. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  31. Collins, Wilmot. "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock". @CollinsWilmot. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  32. Ossoff, Jon (March 9, 2020). "Gov. @stevebullockmt just announced he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana! Montana now joins Georgia as one of the most competitive states in the country. Click below to split a donation between our campaigns so we can WIN in November!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  33. "Governor Steve Bullock embodies Montana's proud tradition of supporting good government and clean elections. He has successfully fought against corruption and worked to overturn Citizens United. We're proud to endorse @stevebullockmt for #MTSEN". Twitter. March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  34. https://twitter.com/LCVoters/status/1261026645491712000
  35. Manchester, Julia (June 24, 2020). "Lincoln Project Backs Bullock in Montana Senate Race". The Hill. Retrieved June 25, 2020.
  36. "Montana U.S. Senate Primary Election Results". New York Times. June 3, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  37. "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  38. "Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Missoula Current. May 18, 2020.
  39. "Statement from the Montana Libertarian Party as Susan Good Geise withdraws from the US Senate race in Montana". Facebook. May 16, 2020.
  40. "Candidate Filing". Montana Secretary of State. March 18, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  41. "Geise enters 2020 run for U.S. Senate as Libertarian". Great Falls Tribune. March 20, 2020.
  42. "Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Missoula Current. May 18, 2020.
  43. "May 15, 2020 — Susan Good Geise". Susan Good Geise for US Senate. May 15, 2020.
  44. holly.michels@lee.net, HOLLY K. MICHELS. "Greens say 'Go Green Montana' group isn't affiliated". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved 2020-06-03.
  45. Dennison, Mike (March 26, 2020). "MT Green Party candidates: One says, `don't vote for me'". KTVH.
  46. holly.michels@lee.net, HOLLY K. MICHELS. "Greens say 'Go Green Montana' group isn't affiliated". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved 2020-06-03.
  47. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  48. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  49. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  50. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  51. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  52. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  53. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  54. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233497372577148935
  55. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
  56. Lu, Chris (March 9, 2020). "Excited to see Steve Bullock jump in. This is a critical race to help us take back the Senate. Please consider making a contribution. I just did". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  57. Blumenthal sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Bullock.
  58. Gillibrand, Kirsten (March 9, 2020). ".@stevebullockmt has proven to be one of the most effective governors in the country—now, he's running for Senate in Montana! Are you in to take back the Senate from Mitch McConnell?". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  59. "Kamala Harris Endorsements". May 9, 2020.
  60. Klobuchar, Amy (March 9, 2020). "MT Gov Steve Bullock is a fighter. He understands the needs of working families & believes in investing in education & job training. It's great to know he will continue this fight in his run for Senate (@Bullock4Senate) & will help flip the Senate blue!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  61. https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1255222362196377600
  62. https://twitter.com/MurrayCampaign/status/1262818947050754050
  63. Tester, Jon (March 9, 2020). "Washington needs more Montana common sense, and I know my friend @stevebullockmt has got it. His track record shows he's a proven fighter for the folks in our state, and can work across the aisle to get real results". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  64. Schatz, Brian (March 9, 2020). "Steve Bullock is IN. We win this seat and Mitch McConnell doesn't run the Senate anymore. Please help!!!!!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  65. Cooney, Mike. "Couldn't be more excited to have our Governor @stevebullockmt back out on the campaign trail in Montana. I'm so proud of everything we've accomplished—but we're not done fighting yet! #mtpol #mtsen #mtgov". @CooneyforMT. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  66. Collins, Wilmot. "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock". @CollinsWilmot. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  67. Ossoff, Jon (March 9, 2020). "Gov. @stevebullockmt just announced he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana! Montana now joins Georgia as one of the most competitive states in the country. Click below to split a donation between our campaigns so we can WIN in November!". Twitter. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  68. "Governor Steve Bullock embodies Montana's proud tradition of supporting good government and clean elections. He has successfully fought against corruption and worked to overturn Citizens United. We're proud to endorse @stevebullockmt for #MTSEN". Twitter. March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
  69. Acosta, Lucas (May 27, 2020). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Gov. Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign.
  70. https://twitter.com/LCVoters/status/1261026645491712000
  71. https://twitter.com/stevebullockmt/status/1273389965553131523
  72. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  73. "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  74. "Steve Bullock represents the best of America's ideals. He cares about his constituents and works every day to make sure their lives are better. We are proud to support @stevebullockmt and usher in a new era of decent, fair, and honest leadership". Twitter. 2020-06-24. Retrieved 2020-06-24.
Official campaign websites
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