2020 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. And the Libertarian Party, which received over 5% of the vote in 2016, already held its 2020 Libertarian National Convention from May 21 to May 25, nominating Jo Jorgensen.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock was a candidate until he withdrew from the Democratic primary on December 2, 2019.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[3]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[5] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 111,706 | 74.5% | 18 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 22,033 | 14.7% | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 11,984 | 8.0% | |
| Uncommitted | 4,250 | 2.8% | |
| Total | 149,973 | 100% | 19 |
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Safe R | June 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Safe R | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 25, 2020 |
| Politico[9] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| RCP[10] | Likely R | June 22, 2020 |
| Niskanen[11] | Likely R | March 24, 2020 |
| CNN[12] | Safe R | June 25, 2020 |
| JHK Forecasts[13] | Likely R | June 27, 2020 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Bozeman | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45.3% | 39.7% | 10.5%[lower-alpha 2] | 4.6% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | Apr 14-21, 2020 | 1,712 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 42% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 3] |
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – | 10% |
| University of Montana | Sep 26–Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 47% | – | – |
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See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 10.5%
- Listed as "other/not sure"
- "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.