2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Ballot measures
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On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries will be held on August 4, 2020.[3][4]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Lance Berland[5]
- John L. Berman[5]
- Derek Ellis[5]
- Bob Hamilton, plumber[6]
- Kris Kobach, former Secretary of State of Kansas, Republican nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2018, lawyer in Douglas County[7]
- Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in 2002[8]
- Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. Representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district[9]
- Brian Matlock, economics graduate student[10]
- John Miller[5]
- Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education[11]
- Gabriel Mark Robles[5]
Withdrawn
- Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House) in District 2.[12]
- Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator[13]
- Susan Wagle, President of the Kansas Senate[14][15]
Declined
- Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce[16]
- Jeff Colyer, former Governor of Kansas and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas[17][18][19][20][21] (endorsed Marshall)[22]
- Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer[23] (running for reelection)
- Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in 2018[17][18][19]
- Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission[24]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district[25][26][27][28]
- Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
- Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs[17][29]
- Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General[30]
- Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State[31][32]
Primary Debate
In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[33] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[33] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[33] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving...career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[33] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It’s very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect." "I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier." "I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times," "...the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[33] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[33]
Endorsements
| Kris Kobach |
|---|
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| Dave Lindstrom |
|---|
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| Roger Marshall |
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Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall | Susan Wagle | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | < 699 (RV)[lower-alpha 2] | – | 15% | 35% | 26% | – | 8%[lower-alpha 3] | 16% |
| Wagle withdraws from the race | |||||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Roger Marshall | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 6% | 26% | 33% | 7% | 4%[lower-alpha 4] | 24% |
| Hamilton announces his candidacy | |||||||||
| McLaughlin/Kris Kobach/The Morning Sun[upper-alpha 1] | February 12–16, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 2.3% | 40% | 22.7% | 8.3% | 5.3%[lower-alpha 5] | 21.3% |
| co/Efficient | January 19–20, 2020 | 1,246 LV | ± 3.2% | – | 29% | 29% | 6% | 9%[lower-alpha 6] | 28% |
| NRSC[upper-alpha 2] | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | 43% | 24% | 8% | 8%[lower-alpha 7] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lance Berland | |||
| Republican | John Berman | |||
| Republican | Derek Ellis | |||
| Republican | Bob Hamilton | |||
| Republican | Kris Kobach | |||
| Republican | Dave Lindstrom | |||
| Republican | Roger Marshall | |||
| Republican | Brian Matlock | |||
| Republican | John Miller | |||
| Republican | Steve Roberts | |||
| Republican | Gabriel Robles | |||
| Total votes | 100.0% | |||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator[50]
- Robert Tillman, perennial candidate[51][5]
Withdrawn
- Elliot Adams, database developer[52]
- Nancy Boyda, former U.S. Representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district[16]
- Corbie Crow, certified public accountant[53]
- Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)[54]
- Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan[55][56]
- Adam Smith[51][57][5]
Declined
- Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for governor in 2014[23]
- Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former Governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner[58]
- Sarah Smarsh, author[59]
- Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018[60]
- Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018[61]
Endorsements
| Barbara Bollier |
|---|
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Barbara Bollier | |||
| Democratic | Robert Tillman | |||
| Total votes | 100.0% | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[85] | Lean R | June 18, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[86] | Lean R | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[87] | Likely R | April 30, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[88] | Likely R | June 4, 2020 |
| Politico[89] | Likely R | April 19, 2020 |
| RCP[90] | Lean R | June 25, 2020 |
| Niskanen[91] | Tossup | April 28, 2020 |
Polling
- Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30-Jun 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 41% | 11%[lower-alpha 9] | 8% |
- Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30-Jun 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 42% | 11%[lower-alpha 10] | 7% |
| NRSC/Kansas City Star[upper-alpha 7] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | April 15–22, 2020 | 1,632 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 43% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates/Kris Kobach[upper-alpha 9] | February 12–13, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 37.7% | – | 15.3% |
| DFM Research[upper-alpha 10] | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
- Roger Marshall vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Roger Marshall (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30-Jun 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 41% | 9%[lower-alpha 11] | 8% |
| NRSC/Kansas City Star[upper-alpha 11] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 35% | – | 18% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Former candidates | ||||||||||||||
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | TBA | ||||
| Democratic | TBA | ||||
| Libertarian | Jason Buckley | ||||
| Independent | Paul Tuten | ||||
| Total votes | 100.0 | ||||
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Republican primary voter subsample size not yet released
- Lindstrom with 4%; "someone else" with 4%
- Lindstrom with 4%
- Lindstrom with 5.3%
- "Someone else" with 9%
- Hartman with 5%; Lindstrom with 3%
- Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
- "Someone else" with 11%
- "Someone else" with 11%
- "Someone else" with 9%
- Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
- This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Poll sponsored by Marshall's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Marshall's campaign
- This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Poll sponsored by 314 Action
- Poll sponsored by Kobach's campaign
- The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
- Poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Poll sponsored by 314 Action
- Poll sponsored by the NRSC
- Poll sponsored by the NRSC
References
- "The Latest: GOP Sen. Roberts of Kansas won't run in 2020". AP NEWS. 2019-01-04. Retrieved 2019-01-04.
- "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020". Ballotpedia.
- "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)". Ballotpedia.
- "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)". Ballotpedia.
- "Candidates for the 2020 Primary". Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved June 1, 2020.
- "Kansas Businessman Enters GOP Senate Primary". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. March 30, 2020. Retrieved March 31, 2020.
- Arkin, James. "Republicans torch Kobach for Senate run". POLITICO. Retrieved 2019-08-08.
- Hanna, John (June 27, 2019). "Ex-Chiefs player, businessman runs for US Senate in Kansas". Associated Press. Retrieved June 27, 2019.
- Brufke, Julie Grace (September 7, 2019). "Rep. Roger Marshall launches Kansas Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- Riley, Jonathan (December 18, 2019). "Meet Brian Matlock, Republican Socialist". The Morning Sun. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
- Steve Roberts files for U.S. Senate to replace Pat Roberts, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- Wise, Lindsay (September 4, 2019). "In Kansas GOP Fight, Jake LaTurner Leaves Senate Race to Challenge Incumbent Rep. Steve Watkins". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 4, 2019.
- "GOP commentator drops US Senate bid to run for Kansas Senate". San Francisco Chronicle. 2020-01-24. Retrieved 2020-01-24.
- Lowry, Bryan (July 23, 2019). "Susan Wagle, GOP leader of Kansas Senate, launches bid to replace Pat Roberts in 2020". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved July 23, 2019.
- "SUSAN WAGLE SAYS SHE WON'T RUN FOR U.S. SENATE SEAT". Classic Country AM 1070. May 28, 2020. Retrieved May 30, 2020.
- Carpenter, Tim (October 10, 2019). "Democrat Nancy Boyda quits U.S. Senate campaign, GOP's Alan Cobb to skip race". The Garden City Telegram. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
- "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/4". Daily Kos. Retrieved 2019-01-05.
- Arkin, James. "Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts to retire in 2020". POLITICO. Retrieved 2019-01-04.
- Fasbinder, Devon. "Who could replace retiring Senator Pat Roberts? A list". www.kwch.com. Retrieved 2019-01-04.
- "Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts isn't ruling out a run for Senate". Associated Press. November 12, 2018. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
- Fray, Jesse (2019-01-04). "Big name replacements discussed for open Kansas senate seat". KSNT. Retrieved 2019-01-04.Colyer, Jeff (2019-08-26). "I appreciate the vast amounts of encouragement I have received over the last few months, though I have made a decision to stay out of the 2020 US Senate race. I remain dedicated to Kansans and will continue to serve in the future". Twitter. Retrieved 2019-08-26.
- https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1232435604064858112
- Joseph, Cameron (January 4, 2019). "Kansas GOP Senator Pat Roberts Announces Retirement". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved January 5, 2019.
- Lima, Cristiano (February 15, 2019). "Lawmakers sound off on Amazon's HQ2 switcharoo". Politico. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
- Samuels, Brett (December 30, 2019). "Pompeo: Running for Senate 'not something I want to do'". TheHill.
- Haberman, Maggie (Jan 6, 2020). "Pompeo: Pompeo not Running for Senate in Kansas '". NYtimes.
- Zeleny, Jeff; Hansler, Jennifer; Rogers, Alex (January 6, 2020). "Pompeo tells McConnell he won't run for the Senate". CNN. Retrieved January 7, 2020.
- Isenstadt, Alex; Arkin, James (January 6, 2019). "Pompeo won't run for Senate in Kansas". Politico. Retrieved January 7, 2019.
- "Matt Schlapp considering Senate bid in Kansas if Pat Roberts retires". Washington Examiner. January 4, 2019. Retrieved April 16, 2019.
- Wheat, Shawn (December 23, 2019). "Schmidt won't run for open U.S. Senate seat". WIBW. Retrieved January 2, 2020.
- Feuerborn, Mark (2018-11-07). "Schwab elected Kansas secretary of state". KSNT. Retrieved 2019-01-05.
- Carpenter, Tim. "U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts mulling re-election bid or ignition of wide open Senate race". The Topeka Capital. Retrieved 2019-01-05.
- Five GOP candidates for U.S. Senate spar on electability, threat of Democrat victory, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, May 23, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
- "Gun Owners of America Endorses Kobach for Senate". Kris Kobach for Senate. January 14, 2020.
- https://twitter.com/KrisKobach1787/status/1273359818124910594
- "National Association for Gun Rights Endorses Kobach for U.S. Senate". Kris Kobach for Senate. January 11, 2020.
- "National Border Patrol Council Endorses Kris Kobach for Senate". Kris Kobach for Senate. January 16, 2020.
- https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243035151.html
- "Family movement leaders endorse Kris Kobach for Senate". Kris Kobach for Senate. May 26, 2020.
- Levine, Jon (September 14, 2019). "Peter Thiel, Ann Coulter to headline NYC fundraiser for Kris Kobach".
- "PICTURES: Peter Thiel Holds Fundraiser For Kris Kobach at NYC Apartment (Featuring Ann Coulter)". September 19, 2019.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQAXcBDr4gQ&feature=youtu.be
- Lowry, Bryan (13 January 2020). "Bob Dole endorses Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall in Senate race". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
- https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinyoder/status/1275540263147102218
- "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance Endorses Roger Marshall for U.S. Senate". Family Policy Alliance. June 9, 2020.
- Nam, Rafael (May 20, 2020). "Family Research Council endorses Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate primary". TheHill.
- Summers, Mitchel. "The Kansas Farm Bureau endorsed political candidates". www.wibw.com.
- Brunner, Melissa. "Rep. Marshall endorsed by Kansas Livestock Association". www.wibw.com.
- Lowry, Bryan (June 23, 2020). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Marshall in Kansas Senate race, warns against Kobach". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
- Senter, Jay (2019-10-16). "Mission Hills state legislator Barbara Bollier announces bid for U.S. Senate". Shawnee Mission Post - Community news and events for northeast Johnson County. Retrieved 2019-10-16.
- "Kansas Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- Clarkin, Mary (March 21, 2019). "2020 U.S. Senate race gains one, loses one". The Hutchinson News.
- @@CATargetBot (July 19, 2019). "NEW FEC F1" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
- Carpenter, Tim (October 17, 2019). "Democratic candidate Barry Grissom ends U.S. Senate campaign". The Topeka Capital Journal. Retrieved October 17, 2019.
- Lowry, Bryan (August 29, 2019). "Kansas Democrat would be first Hindu in U.S. Senate if she wins 2020 race". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved August 29, 2019.
- Lowry, Bryan (May 14, 2020). "Manhattan Mayor Reddi ends U.S. Senate bid; Bollier becomes only Dem in Kansas race". The Kansas City Star.
- Clarkin, Mary (Mar 21, 2020). "2020 U.S. Senate race gains one, loses one". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 29, 2020.
- Ollstein, Alice Miranda (July 9, 2019). "Sebelius won't run for Senate in Kansas". Politico. Retrieved July 9, 2019.
- Lowry, Bryan (April 23, 2019). "Kansas author Sarah Smarsh met with Schumer about possible U.S. Senate run in 2020". The Kansas City Star. McClatchy. Retrieved April 23, 2019.
- Kraske, Steve (August 23, 2018). "Rising Democratic star Josh Svaty: Abortion stance sank my bid for Kansas governor". McClatchyDC. Retrieved January 7, 2019.
Svaty is done with politics. No U.S. Senate race in 2020.
- Bowman, Bridget (January 4, 2019). "Roberts' retirement likely to spark crowded GOP primary". Roll Call. Retrieved January 4, 2019.
- https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/1253828492086689794
- Lowry, Bryan (Nov 19, 2019). "Chuck Schumer will help Bollier raise money for Kansas Senate race in D.C."
- Durbin, Dick (January 7, 2020). "Absolutely - please chip in now to help Barbara Bollier flip Kansas' Senate seat. We can do it!".
- Kirsten Gillibrand. "Kansas elected a Democratic woman governor in 2018—now, they just might make a Dem woman a Senator in 2020. @BarbaraBollier is a state senator and retired physician running for Kansas's open U.S. Senate seat. Proud to support her campaign. You can too!". Twitter.
- Murphy, Chris (January 6, 2020). "Agree. It's a totally winnable race. People should donate tonight. Who else can send for her tonight?".
- https://twitter.com/MurrayCampaign/status/1261845897882873856
- Schatz, Brian (January 6, 2020). "Hey @ChrisMurphyCT let's see if we can raise some money for Barbara Bollier, who is a very impressive state Senator running for the United States Senate in Kansas?".
- "Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorses Barbara Bollier for Senate". kshb. 21 October 2019. Retrieved 21 October 2019.
- "After former Gov. @Sebelius endorsed Bollier, current Kansas @GovLauraKelly follows suit and endorses the JoCo Democrat in #kssen race". 28 October 2019.
- "Barry Grissom withdraws from US Senate race, endorses Barbara Bollier". kwch.com. 17 October 2019. Retrieved 17 October 2019.
- Kinnard, Meg (May 21, 2020). "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate contests". Associated Press.
- @BarbaraBollier (October 18, 2019). "We're only a few days into this campaign and the support from Kansans is growing. I'm proud to announce 23 #ksleg legislators have endorsed my campaign for US Senate. #KSSen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "We are proud to endorse Dr. @BarbaraBollier for #KSSen. Barbara is a trained problem solver who will stand up for facts and evidence in the U.S. Senate. #ElectScientists". 19 December 2019.
- "Especially during National Public Health Week, we couldn't be more proud to endorse @BarbaraBollier for U.S. Senate! Sen. Bollier is a trained doctor. Her medical background means she understands gun violence as the public health epidemic it is. She will fight for Kansans!". April 8, 2020.
- "Bollier Scores Big Endorsements in Race for Kansas Senate Seat". Wall Street Journal. 31 October 2019.
- "End Citizens United and Let America Vote Endorse Barbara Bollier for Senate in Kansas". Let America Vote. May 1, 2020.
- "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- "Giffords Endorses Dr. Barbara Bollier for Senate in Kansas". Giffords. April 16, 2020.
- "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
- Rich, Aliyah (February 12, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Barbara Bollier for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
- "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Barbara Bollier for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. February 20, 2020.
- "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
- "Candidates for the 2020 General". Kansas Secretary of State. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 1, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
- "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
- "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
- "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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