2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
	November 3, 2020
	November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; TBA;

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has 6 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[3]

Republican caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[4]

Counties won by these popular vote results

Map legend

Trump—100%
Trump—≥95%
Trump—90–95%
Trump—85–90%

Congressional districts won by these popular vote results

Map legend

Trump—≥95%

2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[5][6]
Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	31,465	97.1	39
William Weld	426	1.3	1
Joe Walsh	348	1.1	0
Other	151	0.5	0
Total	32,389	100%	40

Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[7]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[8][9][10][lower-alpha 1]
Candidate	Initial alignment		Final alignment[lower-alpha 2]		State delegate equivalents		Pledged national convention delegates[8][9][10][lower-alpha 1]
Candidate	Votes	%	Votes	%	Number	%
Pete Buttigieg	37,572	21.3	43,209	25.1	562.9538	26.17	14
Bernie Sanders	43,581	24.7	45,652	26.5	562.0214	26.13	12
Elizabeth Warren	32,589	18.5	34,909	20.3	388.4403	18.1	8
Joe Biden	26,291	14.9	23,605	13.7	340.3238	15.8	6
Amy Klobuchar	22,454	12.7	21,100	12.2	263.8689	12.3	1[lower-alpha 3]
Andrew Yang	8,914	5.1	1,758	1.0	21.8559	1.0
Tom Steyer	3,061	1.7	413	0.2	6.6189	0.3
Michael Bloomberg	212	0.1	16	0.0	0.2096	0.0
Tulsi Gabbard	341	0.2	16	0.0	0.1143	0.0
Michael Bennet	164	0.1	4	0.0	0.0000	0.0
Deval Patrick	9	0.0	0	0.0	0.0000	0.0
Uncommitted	1,009	0.6	1,420	0.8	3.7321	0.2
Other / Write in	155	0.1	198	0.1	0.6931	0.0
Totals[lower-alpha 4]	176,352	100%	172,300	100%	2,150.8321	100%	41

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[12][13]

Election results by county.

Jacob Hornberger

Ken Armstrong

Dan Behrman

Lincoln Chafee

Jo Jorgensen

Adam Kokesh

John McAfee

Sam Robb

Vermin Supreme

Tie

No votes

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[15]	Lean R	June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[16]	Lean R	April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17]	Lean R	June 25, 2020
Politico[18]	Lean R	April 19, 2020
RCP[19]	Tossup	June 22, 2020
Niskanen[20]	Tossup	March 24, 2020
CNN[21]	Lean R	June 25, 2020
JHK Forecasts[22]	Tossup	June 27, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls


Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 5]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	April 30, 2020 – June 10, 2020	June 16, 2020	44.5%	46.0%	9.5%	Trump + 1.5
270 to Win	June 3, 2020 – June 10, 2020	June 25, 2020	45.3%	46.0%	8.7%	Trump + 0.7
FiveThirtyEight	Until June 10, 2020	June 25, 2020	45.9%	45.5%	8.6%	Biden + 0.4

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Selzer/Des Moines Register	June 7–10, 2020	674 (LV)	± 3.8%	44%	43%	10%[lower-alpha 7]	3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	June 6–8, 2020	865 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	7%[lower-alpha 8]	1%
PPP/Emily's List[upper-alpha 1]	June 3–4, 2020	963 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	5%
PPP	April 30 – May 1, 2020	1,222 (V)	± 2.8%	48%	46%	–	6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	March 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	41%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	January 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	44%	5%[lower-alpha 9]	6%
Public Policy Polling	December 29–31, 2019	964 (V)	–	49%	46%	–	5%
Emerson College	December 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	49%	45%	–	6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	October 25–30, 2019	1,435	± 3.1%	45%	44%	3%	5%
Emerson College	October 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	49%	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R)	April 27–30, 2019	200	± 6.9%	49%	44%	–	5%
Emerson College	March 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	47%	53%	–	–
Emerson College	January 30 – February 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	49%	51%	–	–

Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Michael Bloomberg (D)	Other	Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.	March 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	53%[lower-alpha 10]	34%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	39%	7%[lower-alpha 11]	8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Cory Booker (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	52%	48%	–

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)	Other	Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	45%	44%	4%[lower-alpha 12]	7%
Public Policy Polling	Jan 2–4, 2020	964 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	5%
Emerson College	Dec 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	46%	45%	–	9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 25–30, 2019	1,435	± 3.1%	45%	41%	3%	8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	54%	46%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	54%	46%	–
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	53%	47%	–

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Amy Klobuchar (D)	Other	Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	41%	5%[lower-alpha 13]	8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	53%	47%	–

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Other	Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.	March 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	53%	41%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	42%	4%[lower-alpha 14]	6%
Public Policy Polling	Dec 29–31, 2019	964 (V)	–	49%	44%	–	7%
Emerson College	Dec 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	50%	43%	–	7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 25–30, 2019	1,435	± 3.1%	47%	43%	3%	4%
Emerson College	Oct 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	51%	–	–
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	49%	51%	–	–
Emerson College	Jan 30–Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	51%	50%	–	–

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Other	Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.	March 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	52%[lower-alpha 15]	40%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	42%	5%[lower-alpha 16]	7%
Public Policy Polling	Jan 2–4, 2020	964 (V)	–	49%	44%	–	7%
Emerson College	Dec 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	50%	43%	± 3%	7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 25–30, 2019	1,435	± 3.1%	47%	40%	2%	7%
Emerson College	Oct 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	49%	–	–
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	51%	49%	–	–
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	52%	48%	–	–

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Sherrod Brown (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	55%	46%	–

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Nancy Pelosi (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	55%	45%	–

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Howard Schultz (I)	Undecided
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	47%	46%	8%	–

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Howard Schultz (I)	Undecided
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	48%	45%	7%	–
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	49%	40%	11%	–

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
PPP/End Citizens United[lower-alpha 17]	Dec 13-15, 2019	944 (V)	–	47%	49%	3%
Public Policy Polling	Apr 29–30, 2019	780	± 3.5%	48%	48%	–

Notes

While the final results of the Iowa caucuses have been certified, an appeal to the Democratic National Committee is pending as of February 29, 2020.
Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
All presidential candidates winning less than a 15% share of SDEs statewide and in CD1, CD2, CD3, CD4, will win 0 pledged national convention delegates. Klobuchar did not exceed 15% statewide, or in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts, where her SDE-result was eliminated (meaning she won 0 pledged national convention delegates here). Klobuchar however had "qualified SDEs" above 15% in the 4th congressional district, where she proportionally won 1 out of 5 available delegates. So despite the fact that Klobuchar won 12.3% of all SDE totals statewide, she only won 2.4% (¹⁄₄₁) of the pledged national convention delegates available in Iowa.[11]
Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[9]
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
"Someone else" with 7%
Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
"Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
"Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
"Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
"Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
"IDP Caucus 2020 (100% reporting: 1765 of 1765 precincts)". Iowa Democratic Party. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN.com. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
"Iowa Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 6, 2020.
"Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
"JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.

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[31] Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates

[appeal-11] While the final results of the Iowa caucuses have been certified, an appeal to the Democratic National Committee is pending as of February 29, 2020.

[12] Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.

[14] All presidential candidates winning less than a 15% share of SDEs statewide and in CD1, CD2, CD3, CD4, will win 0 pledged national convention delegates. Klobuchar did not exceed 15% statewide, or in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts, where her SDE-result was eliminated (meaning she won 0 pledged national convention delegates here). Klobuchar however had "qualified SDEs" above 15% in the 4th congressional district, where she proportionally won 1 out of 5 available delegates. So despite the fact that Klobuchar won 12.3% of all SDE totals statewide, she only won 2.4% (¹⁄₄₁) of the pledged national convention delegates available in Iowa.[11]

[15] Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[9]

[27] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-28] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[29] "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%

[30] "Someone else" with 7%

[32] Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%

[33] Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght

[34] Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%

[35] Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%

[36] Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%

[37] Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%

[38] Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght

[39] Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%

[40] End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[The_New_York_Times-4] "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.

[GP-IA-5] "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.

[6] "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.

[7] "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.

[IANYTresults-8] "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.

[IAResults-9] "IDP Caucus 2020 (100% reporting: 1765 of 1765 precincts)". Iowa Democratic Party. Retrieved February 20, 2020.

[certify-10] Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN.com. Retrieved March 1, 2020.

[GPiowa-13] "Iowa Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 6, 2020.

[16] "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.

[17] McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.

[IAResults2-18] Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.

[19] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[20] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[21] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[22] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[23] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-24] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[25] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.

[26] "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.

Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[14]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Jacob Hornberger	133	47.52%
Lincoln Chafee	36	12.77%
Jo Jorgensen	18	6.38%
Adam Kokesh	17	6.03%
Dan Behrman	14	4.96%
John McAfee	10	3.55%
Vermin Supreme	9	3.19%
Other (write-in)	8	2.84%
None of the above	8	2.84%
Sam Robb	7	2.48%
Max Abramson	6	2.13%
Mark Whitney	4	1.42%
Arvin Vohra	3	1.06%
Ken Armstrong	2	0.71%
Souraya Faas	2	0.71%
Benjamin Leder	1	0.35%
John Monds	1	0.35%
Total	281	100%

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