2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

The 2004 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Colorado
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,101,255 1,001,732
Percentage 51.69% 47.02%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Colorado was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 4.67% margin of victory. Prior to the election, ten of twelve news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, although both campaigns targeted it as the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, was born in Colorado. On election day, Bush did carry Colorado, but by only about half the 9% margin he won over Al Gore in 2000. Additionally, Colorado voters decided not to pass a referendum that would have split their electoral vote for this and future presidential elections.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last time the Republican nominee carried Colorado in a presidential election, as well as Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Larimer County, Alamosa County, and Ouray County.[1] This is also the only presidential election that Broomfield County, created in 2001, has voted Republican.[1] It was also the first time any candidate received a million votes in the state.

Primaries
  • 2004 Colorado Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions
Elections in Colorado

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election: Colorado

Although considered a battleground state, Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final three polls averaged Bush leading with 51% to 44%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,598,226.[4] Kerry raised $3,229,631.[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall election campaign, the Republican ticket visited Colorado 5 times. The Democratic ticket visited 7 times.[6] Bush and Kerry also heavily advertised each week. Bush spent just over $400,000 each week. Kerry spent over $500,000 each week.[7]

Analysis

The key to Bush's victory in the state was winning the largely populated counties such as Jefferson County, Douglas County, El Paso County, and Arapahoe County. Although nationally Bush did better, his margin in Colorado was smaller than in 2000 and this was the first occasion San Juan County voted Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide.[lower-alpha 1][8] Nonetheless, Huerfano County voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since Richard Nixon’s 2,900-plus-county landslide in 1972,[8] with Bush’s win there reflecting his strong appeal (for a Republican) amongst Hispanic voters as seen in New Mexico and Bush’s native Texas.

Results
2004 United States presidential election in Colorado[9]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 1,101,255 51.69% 9
Democratic John Kerry 1,001,732 47.02% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 12,718 0.60% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 7,664 0.36% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,562 0.12% 0
Green David Cobb 1,591 0.07% 0
Independent Stanford Andress 804 0.04% 0
Independent Write-Ins 700 0.03% 0
Concerns of People Gene Amondson 378 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 329 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 241 0.01% 0
Socialist Walt Brown 216 0.01% 0
Prohibition Earl Dodge 140 0.01% 0
Totals 2,130,330 100.00% 9
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 62.7%

Results by county
County George Walker Bush[10]
Republican		 John Forbes Kerry[10]
Democratic		 Ralph Nader[10]
Independent		 Michael J. Badnarik[10]
Libertarian		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin
% # % # % # % # % # % #
Cheyenne 81.39% 923 17.46% 198 0.62% 7 0.09% 1 0.44% 5 63.93% 725
Washington 81.03% 2,050 17.98% 455 0.43% 11 0.24% 6 0.32% 8 63.04% 1,595
Rio Blanco 80.02% 2,403 18.85% 566 0.57% 17 0.30% 9 0.27% 8 61.17% 1,837
Kiowa 79.82% 712 19.28% 172 0.34% 3 0.22% 2 0.34% 3 60.54% 540
Kit Carson 77.70% 2,721 20.82% 729 0.66% 23 0.26% 9 0.57% 20 56.88% 1,992
Lincoln 77.83% 1,819 21.52% 503 0.30% 7 0.09% 2 0.26% 6 56.31% 1,316
Baca 76.85% 1,680 22.10% 483 0.50% 11 0.37% 8 0.18% 4 54.76% 1,197
Jackson 76.02% 710 22.48% 210 0.75% 7 0.43% 4 0.32% 3 53.53% 500
Yuma 75.81% 3,456 23.34% 1,064 0.37% 17 0.18% 8 0.31% 14 52.47% 2,392
Moffat 74.18% 4,247 23.67% 1,355 1.14% 65 0.40% 23 0.61% 35 50.52% 2,892
Elbert 73.84% 8,389 24.94% 2,834 0.46% 52 0.29% 33 0.47% 53 48.90% 5,555
Phillips 73.85% 1,717 25.03% 582 0.60% 14 0.30% 7 0.22% 5 48.82% 1,135
Prowers 71.49% 3,392 27.57% 1,308 0.55% 26 0.15% 7 0.25% 12 43.92% 2,084
Sedgwick 71.40% 971 27.50% 374 0.66% 9 0.29% 4 0.15% 2 43.90% 597
Logan 70.36% 6,168 28.42% 2,491 0.66% 58 0.16% 14 0.40% 35 41.95% 3,677
Montrose 69.17% 11,218 29.45% 4,776 0.62% 100 0.41% 67 0.36% 58 39.72% 6,442
Dolores 68.50% 785 29.06% 333 0.79% 9 0.26% 3 1.40% 16 39.44% 452
Delta 68.66% 9,722 29.83% 4,224 0.74% 105 0.42% 59 0.35% 49 38.83% 5,498
Teller 68.36% 8,094 30.03% 3,556 0.77% 91 0.57% 68 0.26% 31 38.33% 4,538
Custer 68.25% 1,657 30.44% 739 0.54% 13 0.41% 10 0.37% 9 37.81% 918
Morgan 68.31% 6,787 30.59% 3,039 0.64% 64 0.15% 15 0.31% 31 37.72% 3,748
Mesa 67.12% 41,539 31.61% 19,564 0.68% 420 0.32% 197 0.27% 165 35.51% 21,975
Crowley 67.38% 1,006 32.02% 478 0.07% 1 0.27% 4 0.27% 4 35.37% 528
Fremont 67.18% 12,313 32.37% 5,933 0.39% 72 0.06% 11 0.00% 0 34.81% 6,380
El Paso 66.74% 161,361 32.11% 77,648 0.55% 1,319 0.37% 896 0.23% 562 34.62% 83,713
Douglas 66.54% 80,651 32.72% 39,661 0.34% 418 0.26% 314 0.13% 156 33.82% 40,990
Montezuma 63.44% 6,988 35.11% 3,867 0.79% 87 0.35% 39 0.31% 34 28.33% 3,121
Weld 62.71% 55,591 35.95% 31,868 0.56% 497 0.32% 287 0.46% 409 26.76% 23,723
Rio Grande 62.43% 3,448 36.32% 2,006 0.85% 47 0.16% 9 0.24% 13 26.11% 1,442
Bent 62.09% 1,338 36.43% 785 1.02% 22 0.19% 4 0.28% 6 25.66% 553
Mineral 61.87% 383 36.67% 227 0.97% 6 0.48% 3 0.00% 0 25.20% 156
Archuleta 61.67% 3,601 36.67% 2,141 0.70% 41 0.31% 18 0.65% 38 25.00% 1,460
Otero 60.48% 4,947 38.68% 3,164 0.48% 39 0.16% 13 0.21% 17 21.80% 1,783
Hinsdale 58.97% 355 39.20% 236 0.83% 5 0.50% 3 0.50% 3 19.77% 119
Park 57.22% 4,781 41.23% 3,445 0.71% 59 0.47% 39 0.37% 31 15.99% 1,336
Grand 55.99% 4,260 42.62% 3,243 0.78% 59 0.42% 32 0.20% 15 13.37% 1,017
Chaffee 55.59% 4,875 42.95% 3,766 0.88% 77 0.41% 36 0.17% 15 12.65% 1,109
Garfield 53.87% 11,123 44.69% 9,228 0.72% 148 0.47% 97 0.25% 51 9.18% 1,895
Larimer 51.82% 75,884 46.62% 68,266 0.68% 999 0.46% 672 0.42% 614 5.20% 7,618
Jefferson 51.84% 140,644 46.65% 126,558 0.64% 1,730 0.40% 1,089 0.47% 1,272 5.19% 14,086
Broomfield 51.68% 12,007 47.06% 10,935 0.61% 142 0.42% 98 0.23% 53 4.61% 1,072
Ouray 51.56% 1,402 47.00% 1,278 0.77% 21 0.37% 10 0.29% 8 4.56% 124
Arapahoe 51.46% 119,475 47.49% 110,262 0.50% 1,158 0.33% 776 0.22% 500 3.97% 9,213
Alamosa 50.71% 3,179 48.13% 3,017 0.70% 44 0.21% 13 0.26% 16 2.58% 162
Huerfano 49.97% 1,700 48.88% 1,663 0.71% 24 0.15% 5 0.29% 10 1.09% 37
Conejos 49.05% 1,864 49.84% 1,894 0.50% 19 0.08% 3 0.53% 20 -0.79% -30
Las Animas 48.52% 3,196 50.10% 3,300 0.64% 42 0.21% 14 0.53% 35 -1.58% -104
Adams 48.23% 65,912 50.58% 69,122 0.59% 813 0.30% 411 0.30% 414 -2.35% -3,210
Pueblo 46.32% 31,117 52.65% 35,369 0.63% 425 0.18% 124 0.22% 147 -6.33% -4,252
Eagle 46.10% 8,533 52.64% 9,744 0.64% 118 0.37% 69 0.25% 47 -6.54% -1,211
La Plata 45.92% 11,704 52.60% 13,409 0.77% 196 0.41% 104 0.30% 77 -6.69% -1,705
San Juan 44.44% 216 52.06% 253 2.06% 10 0.41% 2 1.03% 5 -7.61% -37
Clear Creek 44.93% 2,522 53.25% 2,989 0.80% 45 0.69% 39 0.32% 18 -8.32% -467
Routt 44.21% 5,199 54.35% 6,392 0.76% 89 0.47% 55 0.22% 26 -10.14% -1,193
Lake 42.76% 1,261 55.04% 1,623 1.39% 41 0.58% 17 0.24% 7 -12.28% -362
Gilpin 41.58% 1,329 56.54% 1,807 0.72% 23 0.69% 22 0.47% 15 -14.96% -478
Saguache 41.49% 1,163 56.87% 1,594 0.71% 20 0.57% 16 0.36% 10 -15.38% -431
Gunnison 41.32% 3,479 56.79% 4,782 1.10% 93 0.40% 34 0.38% 32 -15.48% -1,303
Summit 39.10% 5,370 59.29% 8,144 0.87% 119 0.44% 60 0.31% 42 -20.20% -2,774
Boulder 32.39% 51,586 66.29% 105,564 0.61% 964 0.48% 764 0.24% 379 -33.89% -53,978
Costilla 32.18% 566 66.52% 1,170 0.85% 15 0.28% 5 0.17% 3 -34.34% -604
Pitkin 30.08% 2,784 68.45% 6,335 0.83% 77 0.42% 39 0.22% 20 -38.37% -3,551
Denver 29.29% 69,903 69.61% 166,135 0.57% 1,371 0.33% 781 0.20% 482 -40.32% -96,232
San Miguel 26.85% 1,079 71.56% 2,876 0.77% 31 0.67% 27 0.15% 6 -44.71% -1,797

Results by congressional district

Bush won four of seven congressional districts including one held by a Democratic representative.[11]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 31% 68% Diana DeGette
2nd 41% 58% Mark Udall
3rd 55% 44% Scott McInnis
John Salazar
4th 58% 41% Marilyn Musgrave
5th 66% 33% Joel Hefley
6th 60% 39% Tom Tancredo
7th 48% 51% Bob Beauprez


Electors
Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has seven congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of nine electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all nine electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[12]

  1. Theodore S. Halaby
  2. Robert A. Martinez
  3. Lilly Y. Nunez
  4. Cynthia H. Murphy
  5. Sylvia Morgan-Smith
  6. Diane B. Gallagher
  7. Vicki A. Edwards
  8. Frances W. Owens
  9. Booker T. Graves

Failed election reform
Main article: Colorado Amendment 36
See also: Presidential Election Reform Act

There was a Constitutional amendment put on the ballot in the state to alter the way the state's electors would be distributed among presidential candidates, but was rejected by the voters in 2004.

Notes
  1. San Juan County actually gave a plurality to Independent Ross Perot in 1992, but gave a Republican plurality in every other presidential election between 1968 and 2000.

References
  1. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
  3. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2008-11-16. Retrieved 2009-06-20.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  4. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  7. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 159-161 ISBN 0786422173
  9. "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com.
  10. Our Campaigns; CO US President Race, November 02, 2004
  11. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
  12. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov.
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