United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018
November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James Marcia Squier
Party Democratic Republican Green
Incumbent U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan will take place on November 6, 2018 in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow is running for reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew

  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
Individuals

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 1,045,450 100.0
Total votes 1,045,450 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • John James, businessman and Iraq veteran[12][13]

Defeated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[15][13]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[35][36][37]
State Representatives[35]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[39]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Notable Figures

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[67]

Polling

Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Sandy
Pensler		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%

Results

Republican primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 518,564 54.7
Republican Sandy Pensler 429,885 45.3
Total votes 948,506 100.0

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5th, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 18, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D) $15,330,606.00 $10,171,431.00 $6,273,444.00
John James (R) $4,206,901.00 $3,337,904.00 $868,996.00
Source: Federal Election Commission[72]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[73] Likely D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[74] Solid D September 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[75] Safe D October 4, 2018
Fox News[76] Likely D^ September 19, 2018
CNN[77] Likely D September 15, 2018
RealClearPolitics[78] Likely D September 16, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Individuals
John James
U.S. Executive Branch offficials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[35][36][96]
State Representatives[35]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[97]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 8%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 35% 3% 10%
EPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 5% 6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 55% 40% – –
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 54% 41% – 5%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 53% 35% – 11%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 2% 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 51% 35% – 14%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 2% 13%
The Tarrance Group (R-James) August 11–14, 2018 602 ± 4.1% 49% 38% 3% 9%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%

Results

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent)
Republican John James
Green Marcia Squier
Taxpayers George Huffman III
Natural Law John Howard Wilhelm
Majority
Turnout

References

  1. ↑ "John James endorsement from President Donald Trump after primary".
  2. ↑ "Green Party of Michigan Nominating Convention".
  3. ↑ Demas, Susan J. (October 2, 2015). "Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?". MLive.com. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  4. ↑ Everett, Burgess (November 17, 2016). "Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  5. ↑ Oosting, Jonathan (February 11, 2017). "Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  6. ↑ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  7. 1 2 3 4 "Major Environmental Groups Endorse Sen. Debbie Stabenow for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. May 2, 2018.
  8. ↑ "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
  9. ↑ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
  10. ↑ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". 16 July 2012.
  11. ↑ Chelsea Handler. "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson". Twitter. line feed character in |title= at position 86 (help)
  12. ↑ "Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race".
  13. 1 2 3 "2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  14. ↑ "Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run".
  15. ↑ Boothe, Daniel. "Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate". Retrieved 2017-10-24.
  16. ↑ Gray, Kathleen (February 19, 2017). "Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  17. ↑ "Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate". Ultimate Classic Rock.
  18. ↑ McCollum, Brian (October 24, 2017). "Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  19. ↑ Nann Burke, Melissa (February 1, 2017). "Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
  20. ↑ "U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run".
  21. ↑ "Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott".
  22. ↑ "Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan".
  23. 1 2 3 "Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate".
  24. ↑ Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and a African American leader..." Twitter.
  25. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  26. ↑ Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
  27. ↑ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". 5 December 2017.
  28. ↑ "Congressman Jack Bergman Endorses John James". John James for Senate.
  29. ↑ "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. 10 July 2018.
  30. ↑ "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". 20 November 2017.
  31. ↑ "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". 7 November 2017.
  32. ↑ "RELEASE: U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar Endorses John James for U.S. Senate". John James for Senate.
  33. ↑ West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website.
  34. ↑ John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
  35. 1 2 3 4 "30 Conservative Republicans from the Michigan Legislature Endorse John James for Senate". John James for Senate.
  36. 1 2 3 4 "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". 5 July 2018.
  37. ↑ . 10 July 2018 https://www.facebook.com/rick.jones.GrandLedge/posts/10216760484664405. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  38. 1 2 3 4 "Michigan Cattlemen's Association, Fmr. Farm Bureau President, Highlight Strong Coalition of Farmers For John James". John James for Senate.
  39. ↑ "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
  40. ↑ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of American Hero Robert O'Neill - John James for Senate". 8 November 2017.
  41. ↑ "Dean Cain on Twitter".
  42. ↑ John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
  43. ↑ "Hugh Hewitt on Twitter". twitter.com.
  44. ↑ Cavitt, Mark (July 23, 2018). "Ted Nugent endorses John James for U.S. Senate". The Oakland Press.
  45. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  46. ↑ Donald Trump Jr. "Excited to see @JohnJamesMI and @SchuetteOnDuty win big tonight in Michigan. They're both great candidates who are #MAGA to the core. #MISEN #MIGOV". Twitter.
  47. ↑ "Sandy Pensler on Twitter". twitter.com.
  48. ↑ "Michigan Agricultural Icon Wayne Wood Endorses John James for US Senate". John James for Senate.
  49. ↑ "John James on Twitter".
  50. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  51. ↑ John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
  52. ↑ "COver 350 Michigan Veterans Highlight John James Veterans Coalition". John James for Senate.
  53. ↑ "John James for Senate in Michigan". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 30, 2018.
  54. ↑ "ACU Endorses John James". American Conservative Union. March 22, 2018.
  55. ↑ "John James Emerges as Sole Conservative to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow - John James for Senate". 25 April 2018.
  56. ↑ "James Raises $1.17 Million, Quadruples Grassroots Fundraising Base during Q1 - John James for Senate". 11 April 2018.
  57. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  58. ↑ "GR Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Endorsements". Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce. June 6, 2018.
  59. ↑ "SBA List Endorses John James for U.S. Senate in MI - Susan B. Anthony List". www.sba-list.org.
  60. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  61. ↑ "Chamber Announces Endorsements for US Senate, AG and Key Congressional Races". Michigan Chamber of Commerce. June 27, 2018.
  62. ↑ LeBlanc, Beth (October 10, 2018). "Chamber endorses James for U.S. Senate, criticizes Stabenow's record". The Detroit News.
  63. ↑ "In GOP Senate primary, John James". The Detroit News. July 19, 2018.
  64. ↑ "Sen. Rand Paul endorses Pensler in Michigan GOP Primary". Fox17. 30 July 2018. Retrieved 31 July 2018.
  65. 1 2 "Republicans in Trump Country Unite Behind Sandy Pensler for US Senate". Pensler for Senate. April 9, 2018.
  66. ↑ "Bob Young, Jr". www.facebook.com.
  67. ↑ "Pro-life record, support of Trump tackled in Michigan GOP U.S. Senate debate". mlive.com.
  68. ↑ "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018".
  69. ↑ "Mich. House OKs dead lawmaker's bill in vote of unity".
  70. ↑ Cwiek, Sarah (August 31, 2017). "Green Party candidates jump in race for Michigan governor, U.S. Senator". Michigan Radio. Retrieved October 27, 2017.
  71. ↑ motownbelle (20 October 2017). "Why I Suspended My Senatorial Campaign" – via YouTube.
  72. ↑ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved September 24, 2018.
  73. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  74. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  75. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  76. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  77. ↑ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  78. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  79. ↑ Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
  80. ↑ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  81. ↑ "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
  82. ↑ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
  83. ↑ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". 16 July 2012.
  84. ↑ Chelsea Handler. "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson". Twitter. line feed character in |title= at position 86 (help)
  85. ↑ Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and a African American leader..." Twitter.
  86. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  87. ↑ Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
  88. ↑ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". 5 December 2017.
  89. ↑ "Congressman Jack Bergman Endorses John James". John James for Senate.
  90. ↑ "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. 10 July 2018.
  91. ↑ "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". 20 November 2017.
  92. ↑ "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". 7 November 2017.
  93. ↑ "RELEASE: U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar Endorses John James for U.S. Senate". John James for Senate.
  94. ↑ West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website.
  95. ↑ John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
  96. ↑ . 10 July 2018 https://www.facebook.com/rick.jones.GrandLedge/posts/10216760484664405. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  97. ↑ "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
  98. ↑ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of American Hero Robert O'Neill - John James for Senate". 8 November 2017.
  99. ↑ "Dean Cain on Twitter".
  100. ↑ John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
  101. ↑ "Hugh Hewitt on Twitter". twitter.com.
  102. ↑ Cavitt, Mark (July 23, 2018). "Ted Nugent endorses John James for U.S. Senate". The Oakland Press.
  103. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  104. ↑ https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/1050399327737253889
  105. ↑ Donald Trump Jr. "Excited to see @JohnJamesMI and @SchuetteOnDuty win big tonight in Michigan. They're both great candidates who are #MAGA to the core. #MISEN #MIGOV". Twitter.
  106. ↑ "Sandy Pensler on Twitter". twitter.com.
  107. ↑ "Michigan Agricultural Icon Wayne Wood Endorses John James for US Senate". John James for Senate.
  108. ↑ "John James on Twitter".
  109. ↑ John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
  110. ↑ "COver 350 Michigan Veterans Highlight John James Veterans Coalition". John James for Senate.
  111. ↑ "John James for Senate in Michigan". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 30, 2018.
  112. ↑ "ACU Endorses John James". American Conservative Union. March 22, 2018.
  113. ↑ "John James Emerges as Sole Conservative to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow - John James for Senate". 25 April 2018.
  114. ↑ "James Raises $1.17 Million, Quadruples Grassroots Fundraising Base during Q1 - John James for Senate". 11 April 2018.
  115. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  116. ↑ "GR Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Endorsements". Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce. June 6, 2018.
  117. ↑ "SBA List Endorses John James for U.S. Senate in MI - Susan B. Anthony List". www.sba-list.org.
  118. ↑ "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  119. ↑ "Chamber Announces Endorsements for US Senate, AG and Key Congressional Races". Michigan Chamber of Commerce. June 27, 2018.
  120. ↑ LeBlanc, Beth (October 10, 2018). "Chamber endorses James for U.S. Senate, criticizes Stabenow's record". The Detroit News.
  121. ↑ "In GOP Senate primary, John James". The Detroit News. July 19, 2018.
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