Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018
November 6, 2018

 
Nominee David Ige Andria Tupola
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Josh Green Marissa Kerns
Incumbent Governor

David Ige
Democratic

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.

Incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige is running for reelection to a second term in office. The primaries were held on August 11, 2018.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Ige		 Colleen
Hanabusa		 Clayton
Hee		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 43% 34% – 18%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 44% 40% – 16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) June 21 – July 6, 2018 518 ± 4.4% 31% 57% – 11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) April 21 – May 7, 2018 888 ± 3.4% 23% 52% 6% 19%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 31% 37% 11% 16%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 27% 47% 11% 15%

Results

Results by county:
  Ige—50–60%
  Ige—40–50%
  Hanabusa—40–50%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 124,528 51.3
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 107,583 44.3
Democratic Ernest Caravahlo 5,659 2.3
Democratic Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a 2,293 0.9
Democratic Van Tanabe 1,575 0.6
Democratic Blank votes 5,112 2.1
Democratic Over votes 302 0.1
Total votes 247,052 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bernard
Carvalho		 Will
Espero		 Josh
Green		 Kim Coco
Iwamoto		 Jill
Tokuda		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 13% 5% 31% 10% 17% 26%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 14% 6% 34% 10% 14% 22%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 19% 8% 16% 14% 11% 32%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 14% 9% 19% 5% 12% 41%

Results

Results by county:
  Green—50–60%
  Green—30–40%
  Tokuda—30–40%
  Carvalho—40–50%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Green 74,819 30.2
Democratic Jill Tokuda 68,107 27.5
Democratic Bernard P. Carvalho 45,802 18.5
Democratic Kim Coco Iwamoto 34,218 13.8
Democratic Will Espero 15,459 6.2
Democratic Blank votes 9,201 3.7
Democratic Over votes 220 0.1
Total votes 247,826 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • John Carroll, former State Representative, former State Senator and perennial candidate[6][16]
  • Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, Former Assistant Superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[17]
  • Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[18][16]
Withdrew

Endorsements

Andria Tupola
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
Carroll		 Raymond
L'Heureux		 Andria
Tupola		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 22% 4% 39% 22%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 143 ± 8.4% 28% 8% 41% 23%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 134 ± 8.6% 40% – 28% 32%

Results

Results by county:
  Tupola—50–60%
  Tupola—40–50%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andria Tupola 17,282 53.0
Republican John Carroll 10,969 33.7
Republican Ray L'Heureux 2,883 8.8
Republican Blank votes 1,425 4.4
Republican Over votes 28 0.1
Total votes 32,587 100

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Marissa Kerns
  • Steve Lipscomb
  • Jeremy Low

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marissa
Kerns		 Jeremy
Low		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 26% 20% 54%

Results

Results by county:
  Kerns—30–40%
  Lipscomb—30–40%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marissa Dipasupil Kerns 9,749 29.9
Republican Steve Lipscomb 9,538 29.3
Republican Jeremy Low 8,224 25.2
Republican Blank votes 5,057 15.5
Republican Over votes 19 0.1
Total votes 32,587 100.0

Nonpartisan primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Selina Blackwell
  • Link El
  • Terrence Teruya
Results
Results by county:
  Teruya—50–60%
  Blackwell—40–50%
  Blackwell—50–60%
Nonpartisan primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Blank votes 918 44.7
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 542 26.4
Nonpartisan Selina Blackwell 494 24.1
Nonpartisan Link El 98 4.8
Nonpartisan Over votes 1 0.2
Total votes 2,053 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Ernest Magaoay
  • Paul Robotti
Results
Results by county:
  Robotti—50–60%
  Magaoay—50–60%
Nonpartisan primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Blank votes 995 48.5
Nonpartisan Paul Robotti 535 26.1
Nonpartisan Ernest Magaoay 521 25.4
Nonpartisan Over votes 2 0.1
Total votes 2,053 100.0

Green primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Jim Brewer

Results

Results by county:
  Brewer—100%
Green primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jim Brewer 454 73.3
Green Blank votes 164 26.5
Green Over votes 1 0.2
Total votes 619 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Renee Ing

Results

Results by county:
  Ing—100%
Green primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Renee Ing 444 71.7
Green Blank votes 175 28.3
Green Over votes 0 0.0
Total votes 619 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Solid D August 30, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[23] Solid D August 31, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe D September 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[25] Safe D October, 9, 2018
Daily Kos[26] Safe D September 5, 2018
Fox News[27][lower-alpha 1] Likely D October 9, 2018
Politico[28] Likely D October 9, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Ige (D)		 Andria
Tupola (R)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 57% 34% 9%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 24% 25%

Results

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic David Ige (incumbent)
Republican Andria Tupola
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya
Green Jim Brewer
Majority
Total votes 100.0

References

  1. ↑ "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  3. 1 2 Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  4. ↑ "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  5. ↑ Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  6. 1 2 Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  7. ↑ Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  8. ↑ Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  10. ↑ "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  11. 1 2 "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  12. ↑ Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  13. ↑ "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  14. ↑ "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  15. ↑ Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  16. 1 2 Daverta, Jobeth (Jan 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved Jan 26, 2018.
  17. ↑ Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
  18. ↑ "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved 2018-04-05.
  19. ↑ Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
  20. ↑ Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
  21. ↑ Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
  22. ↑ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  23. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  24. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  25. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. August 9, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  27. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  28. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
Official campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
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