Michigan Democratic primary, 2016

Michigan Democratic primary, 2016

March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08)

Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Home state Vermont New York Delegate count 67 63 Popular vote 598,943 581,775 Percentage 49.68% 48.26%

Michigan results by county   Bernie Sanders   Hillary Clinton

The 2016 Michigan Democratic primary took place on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win in the primary is widely considered to be a major upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.^[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by narrow margin in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forums and debates

Opinion polling

Results

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.^[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,^[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.^[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56-42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71-28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,^[20] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56-40, even though Clinton has hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49-46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.^[21] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."^[22]

Sanders thanked supporters after his stunning upset, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."^[23]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

References