United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Japheth Campbell
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Claire McCaskill
Democratic


The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

Incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill is running for re-election in a primary field of eight Democrats. Eleven Republicans are vying for their party's nomination including State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who filed notification in August, 2017, that he had formed an exploratory campaign committee for the seat.[1][2]

Hawley was endorsed by President Donald Trump in November 2017.[3] Hawley was also endorsed by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.[4]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist[8]
  • David Faust[9]
  • Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate[9]
  • John Hogan, perennial candidate[9]
  • Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[9]
  • Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements

Claire McCaskill
U.S. President
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 500,162 82.6
Democratic Carla Wright 40,971 6.8
Democratic John Hogan 15,928 2.6
Democratic David Faust 15,902 2.6
Democratic Angelica Earl 15,453 2.6
Democratic Travis Gonzalez 9,453 1.6
Democratic Leonard Steinman 7,634 1.3
Total votes 605,503 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Hawley
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Executive Branch official
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Publications
Austin Petersen
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
State judges
Clerks
Military Officals
  • John Burk, former drill instructor, motivational speaker, social media consultant, sales rep, CEO of In The Arena Fitness[78]
  • Rik Combs, retired U.S. Air Force officer and command pilot[79]
  • Shane Hazel, marine corps veteran, candidate for GA-07[80]
  • Kash Jackson, Navy veteran and activist, Libertarian nominee for Governor of Illinois in 2018[81]
  • Rob Maness, retired United States Air Force colonel and candidate for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana in 2014, 2016
Individuals
Organizations
Tony Monetti
Governors
Former White House official
Courtland Sykes
State judges

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Tony
Monetti
Peter
Pfeifer
Kirsti
Nichols
America First Missouri May 11, 2018 [128] Absent Present Present Present Present Present

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Other Undecided
Emerson College April 26–29, 2018 283 ± 6.0% 37% 8% 6% 5% 45%

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley 389,006 58.6
Republican Tony Monetti 64,718 9.8
Republican Austin Petersen 54,810 8.3
Republican Kristi Nichols 49,554 7.5
Republican Christina Smith 34,948 5.3
Republican Ken Patterson 19,537 2.9
Republican Peter Pfeifer 16,557 2.5
Republican Courtland Sykes 13,862 2.1
Republican Fred Ryman 8,763 1.3
Republican Brian Hagg 6,913 1.0
Republican Bradley Krembs 4,885 0.7
Total votes 663,553 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[129]

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Results by county:
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 5,357 100.0
Total votes 5,357 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary

  • Jerome Bauer

Results

Results by county:
Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jo Crain 902 57.5
Green Jerome Bauer 666 42.5
Total votes 1,568 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Craig O'Dear, attorney[133]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[134] Toss-Up September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[135] Toss-Up April 9, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] Toss-Up April 5, 2018
Daily Kos[137] Toss-Up July 24, 2018
Fox News[138] Toss-Up July 9, 2018
CNN[139] Toss-Up October 11, 2018
RealClearPolitics[140] Toss-Up October 11, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 18, 2018
Candidate Amount raised
Claire McCaskill (D) $20,809,801.00
Josh Hawley (R) $5,320,513.00
Craig O'Dear (I) $454,344.00
Japheth Campbell (L) $1,155.00
Source: Federal Election Commission[141]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Josh
Hawley (R)
Japheth
Campbell (L)
Other Undecided
Ipsos September 27 – October 7, 2018 1,111 ± 3.0% 44% 45% 1% 4%[142] 6%
1st Tuesday Campaigns October 5–6, 2018 1,052 ± 3.0% 42% 44% 1% 2%[143] 11%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 683 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 2% 6%[144] 6%
46% 46% 3% 5%
805 RV ± 3.5% 41% 41% 2% 7%[145] 9%
44% 44% 3% 8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) September 29 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 52%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 869 ± 3.3% 49% 51%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 756 LV ± 4.3% 47% 44% 3% 1%[146] 4%
906 RV ± 3.9% 43% 42% 4% 2%[147] 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) September 26–27, 2018 1,555 ± 2.5% 46% 48% 6%
YouGov September 10–14, 2018 917 45% 45% 4% 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 11–13, 2018 1,724 ± 2.4% 44% 47% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 675 LV ± 3.5% 44% 41% 1% 5%[148] 8%
45% 45% 3% 7%
808 RV ± 3.5% 41% 39% 1% 6%[149] 11%
42% 43% 3% 10%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 568 LV ± 4.8% 44% 40% 5% 3%[150] 8%
47% 47% 1% 5%
774 RV ± 4.2% 43% 39% 6% 3%[151] 8%
46% 47% 1% 5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) August 12–14, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 41% 48% 3% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 8–9, 2018 1,785 ± 2.3% 47% 47% 6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) July 10–12, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 4% 11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2018 1,034 ± 3.2% 46% 48% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,038 ± 5.0% 49% 47% 4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) June 2018 46% 42%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) June 11–13, 2018 804 ± 3.5% 47% 41%
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 43% 50% 7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) May 9–10, 2018 898 ± 3.3% 48% 44% 8%
Emerson College April 26–29, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 45% 45% 11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) April 19–20, 2018 1,542 ± 2.5% 48% 44% 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) April 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) April 9–12, 2018 46% 44%
Mason-Dixon April 4–6, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
Gravis Marketing March 5–7, 2018 931 ± 3.2% 42% 40% 18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,938 ± 3.6% 44% 52% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) January 8–9, 2018 965 ± 3.2% 45% 44% 11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) January 3–4, 2018 1,122 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 11–12, 2017 965 ± 3.1% 45% 48% 7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 16–18, 2017 922 ± 3.0% 45% 50% 5%
Fabrizo Lee (R) July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 42% 46% 12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%

Results

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent)
Green Jo Crain
Libertarian Japheth Campbell
Independent Craig O'Dear
Republican Josh Hawley
Margin of victory
Turnout

References

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  122. Austin Petersen [@AP4Liberty] (24 April 2018). "Another day, another Missouri Firearms manufacturer jumping on board the campaign thanks to Josh Hawley's gun control agenda. Thanks, Modern Weapons Systems, and thank you @HawleyMO! #MOSEN #2A" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  132. "Independent candidate could complicate Senate race for McCaskill, Hawley". kansascity. Retrieved 2018-02-15.
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  134. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  135. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  136. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  137. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  138. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  139. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  140. "Compare candidate financial totals". Retrieved August 2, 2018.
  141. Craig O'Dear (I) with 2%, Jo Crain (G) with 0%, other with 2%
  142. Craig O'Dear (I) and Jo Crain (G) with 1%
  143. Craig O'Dear (I) with 4%, Jo Crain (G) with 1%, other with 1%
  144. Craig O'Dear (I) with 4%, Jo Crain (G) with 2%, other with 1%
  145. Jo Crain (G) with 1%, other with 0%
  146. Jo Crain (G) with 2%, other with 0%
  147. Craig O'Dear (I) with 3%, Jo Crain (G) with 1%, other with 1%
  148. Craig O'Dear (I) with 4%, Jo Crain (G) with 1%, other with 1%
  149. Jo Crain (G) with 3%, other with <1%
  150. Jo Crain (G) with 3%, other with <1%
Official campaign websites
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