United States Senate election in Maine, 2018

United States Senate election in Maine, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Angus King Eric Brakey Zak Ringelstein
Party Independent Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Angus King
Independent


The 2018 United States Senate election in Maine will be held November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Independent Senator Angus King is seeking reelection to a second term.

The primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[1]

This election will be conducted with ranked choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016.[2] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court holding that ranked choice voting would be unconstitutional, though only affecting state office elections, led state legislators to delay its implementation,[3][4][5] but backers of a "people's veto" were successful in collecting signatures to suspend this law and force a successful June referendum vote to repeal it. Ranked choice voting was used in the primary elections on June 12 and will be in the general election.[6]

Background

A part of New England, Maine was once a bastion of the Republican Party, and was one of two states to vote against Franklin Roosevelt all four times he ran for president. Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964, and Hubert Humphrey carried it in 1968 before the state reverted to form and reestablished a GOP voting streak that lasted until the 1990s. With the GOP progressively becoming more culturally conservative, the state began moving toward the Democrats, and Bill Clinton carried it in 1992. Clinton's win established a Democratic winning streak that lasted until Donald Trump won an electoral vote from the state's second congressional district in 2016 despite losing the rest of the state.[7]

The state has a tradition of electing various independent candidates to high office, such as Angus King, who served as governor of the state from 1995 to 2003. In 2012, King's decision to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Olympia Snowe dramatized the battle for the Senate, as he left open whether he would caucus with the Republicans or the Democrats.[8] He eventually decided to caucus with the Democrats and has established a center-left voting record.[9]

Independents

King said his reelection plans would not be affected by treatment for prostate cancer, which he announced he had on June 22, 2015.[10]

Candidates

Declared

Republican primary

On January 12, 2015, Maine Governor Paul LePage made a statement on Howie Carr's radio program that he might run for U.S. Senate against King, citing King's switching his endorsement in the 2014 gubernatorial election from independent candidate Eliot Cutler to Democratic candidate Mike Michaud as a "horrible thing to do".[12] The next day, LePage said his comment was a joke,[11] though on an August 25, 2015 appearance on Carr's program, he said he was "very strongly" considering running, citing King's caucusing with Senate Democrats.[13] LePage also criticized King for his involvement in the Maine wind energy industry, saying King "ripped us off by $104 million during his eight years as governor – he ripped us off, royally, and I can’t wait until 2018 because I’m thinking that’s the guy I'm going after." A spokesman for King dismissed LePage's criticism.[14]

On May 10, 2016, LePage announced at a town hall meeting in Oakland that he would run against King unless he was hired by the Donald Trump administration.[15] On May 10, 2017, LePage decided not to run; his spokesman said he preferred to focus on being governor.[16] On July 20, 2017, LePage again said he "might" challenge King.[17] Trump personally encouraged LePage to run and offered his endorsement.[18] LePage did not file to run by the March 15, 2018 deadline.[19][20]

Eric Brakey's campaign successfully contested 258 signatures to Max Linn's petitions to appear on the primary ballot, which meant that Linn had 10 fewer signatures than the 2,000 needed to be on the ballot. Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap then declared Linn ineligible to be a candidate, although it was too late to remove Linn's name from the ballot. Voters were informed of Linn's status when they voted, and any votes cast for him were counted as blanks.[21] Nevertheless, Linn's campaign was active on Twitter and placed campaign signs along roads in Maine. Linn signs were also seen in New Hampshire, including in Dover. Dover city officials said they would remove the signs upon request if Linn's campaign did not remove them, because Linn is not a candidate in a New Hampshire election and because the signs were placed improperly.[22] Linn appealed the decision to disqualify him to U.S. District Court in Portland, but Judge Nancy Torresen rejected Linn's request for an injunction to bar Dunlap from informing voters he is ineligible. Linn subsequently announced he would run against U.S. Senator Susan Collins in the 2020 Republican primary election.[23]

Candidates

On the ballot

Declared ineligible

Declined

Endorsements

Eric Brakey
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Officials
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Eric Brakey 59,853 58.9
Republican Blank ballots 41,732 41.1
Total votes 101,585 100.0

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary race initially included both teacher Zak Ringelstein and homebuilder Benjamin Pollard, but Pollard withdrew to run as an Independent two days after Ringelstein announced a list of 16 endorsements from Democratic state legislators.[35] Ringelstein is the only major-party candidate for Senate to be a dues-paying member of the Democratic Socialists of America.[36]

Candidates

Declared

  • Zak Ringelstein, teacher and founder of UClass[37]

Withdrawn

  • Benjamin Pollard, homebuilder and primary and write-in candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[38]

Declined

Endorsements

Zak Ringelstein
State Senators
State Representatives
Other politicians
Journalists, commentators, and editors
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Zak Ringelstein 89,841 67.7
Democratic Blank ballots 42,955 32.3
Total votes 132,795 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Failed to make ballot

  • Chris Lyons, write-in candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[51]

General election

Candidates

  • Angus King, incumbent (I)
  • Eric Brakey, state Senator (R)
  • Zak Ringelstein, teacher and founder of UClass (D)

Endorsements

Angus King (I)
Statewide politicians
Local politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Eric Brakey (R)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Zak Ringelstein (D)
State Senators
State Representatives
Other individuals
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[83] Safe I September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[84] Safe I September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[85] Safe I April 5, 2018
Fox News[86] Likely I^ July 9, 2018
CNN[87] Solid I July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[88] Safe I June 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Angus
King (I)
Eric
Brakey (R)
Zak
Ringelstein (D)
Undecided
Self-Made Insights (R-Brakey) September 27–30, 2018 750 ± 3.4% Round 1 47% 36% 8%
Suffolk University August 2–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% Round 1 52% 25% 9% 15%
Round 2[89] 58% 27% 15%

Results

United States Senate election in Maine, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Independent Angus King (incumbent)
Republican Eric Brakey
Democratic Zak Ringelstein
Majority
Turnout

See also

References

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  3. "Maine Supreme Judicial Court rules ranked-choice voting unconstitutional". Bangor Daily News. May 23, 2017. Retrieved May 23, 2016.
  4. "Voter-approved ranked-choice voting stays in effect as repeal bills fail". Portland Press Herald. June 28, 2017. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  5. TEGNA. "Ranked choice voting delayed until 2021".
  6. "Ranked-choice voters submit signatures for 'people's veto' ballot initiative". 2 February 2018.
  7. "Maine Presidential Election Voting History".
  8. Weisman, Jonathan (May 6, 2012). "Senate Control Could Hinge on Angus King of Maine" via www.nytimes.com.
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  11. 1 2 "LePage says comment about Senate run a joke". WMTW-TV. January 13, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
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  89. In the actual election, no second round of vote tabulating would be needed if a candidate won 50% of the vote in the first round.
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