Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Bill Schuette Gretchen Whitmer Bill Gelineau
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Running mate Lisa Posthumus Lyons Garlin Gilchrist II Angelique Thomas

Incumbent Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican


The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2018 will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The filing deadline was April 24, 2018. The Republican, Democratic and Libertarian parties chose their nominees in a partisan primary on August 7, 2018.[1] 2018 is the first year for the Libertarian Party to hold a gubernatorial primary alongside the two other major parties in the state of Michigan.[2] The Working Class Party, U.S. Taxpayers Party, Green Party and Natural Law Party chose their nominees at state party conventions.[3]

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder is term-limited.[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Hines
Organizations
  • Right to Life of Michigan[18]
Patrick Colbeck
U.S. Senators
State officials
Media Personalities
Businessmen
  • Bob Lutz, Former General Motors Vice-Chairman and ex-Chrysler President[24]
Other
  • Jack R. Lousma, former NASA astronaut and retired USMC colonel[25]
  • Mark Gurley, co-director of the Michigan Oak Initiative and as the Grassroots vice-chair for the MIGOP[26]
  • Dawn Dodge, Speakers Bureau Director for the Republican Women's Federation of Michigan[27]
  • Wes Nakagiri, Michigan Tea Party Leader, One of the 17 Republican At-Large Delegates sent to the 2016 Republican National Convention
Organizations
  • Right to Life of Michigan[18]
  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[28]
Brian Calley
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State and local officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • Right to Life of Michigan[18]
  • Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[36]
  • Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce[37]
  • Home Builders Association of Michigan[38]
  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[28]
Newspapers

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Bill
Schuette
Patrick
Colbeck
Brian
Calley
Jim
Hines
WOOD-TV May 9, 2018 [41] Invited Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV June 28, 2018 Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Brian
Calley
Patrick
Colbeck
Jim
Hines
Bill
Schuette
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 18% 9% 10% 40% 23%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 24% 11% 8% 42% 15%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 13% 7% 9% 35% 36%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 26% 11% 33% 1% 30%
JMC Analytics July 5–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 17% 10% 4% 25% 45%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 16% 8% 4% 45% 21%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC) June 18–21, 2018 23% 45% 29%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) May 22–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 6% 1% 42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) April 29 – May 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 20% 6% 2% 42%
Glengariff Group April 19–21, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 23% 4% 1% 36% 0%[42] 34%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 13% 4% 1% 23% 59%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 18% 7% 3% 27% 45%
Marketing Resource Group March 13–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 13% 2% 2% 29% 54%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) February 10–13, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 15% 5% 2% 42%
Strategic National (R) December 16–17, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 19% 5% 2% 30% 44%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 14% <5% <5% 38%
Mitchell Research September 21–24, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 13% 52% 36%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 13% 3% 3% 33% 48%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 344 ± 5.4% 14% 4% 1% 42% 39%
Marketing Resource Group May 8–11, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 11% 7% 32% 51%

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Schuette 501,959 50.7
Republican Brian Calley 249,185 25.2
Republican Patrick Colbeck 129,646 13.1
Republican Jim Hines 108,735 11.0
Total votes 989,525 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Write-In

  • Bill C. Cobbs, businessman[47]

Declined

Endorsements

Abdul El-Sayed
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
  • Abdullah Hammoud, State Representative[64]
Organizations
Celebrities
Political candidates
Other individuals

Debates

Host
network
Date Participants
Abdul
El-Sayed
Shri
Thanedar
Gretchen
Whitmer
WOOD-TV June 20, 2018 Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV July 19, 2018 Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Cobbs
Abdul
El-Sayed
Shri
Thanedar
Gretchen
Whitmer
Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,054 ± 3.1% 19% 22% 49% 10%
Change Research (D-El-Sayed) July 20–21, 2018 1,503 27% 15% 33% 24%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 282 ± 6.4% 12% 17% 39% 31%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 442 ± 5.5% 22% 27% 31% <1% 20%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 17% 19% 40% 2% 22%
Glengariff Group April 20–22, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 3% 7% 30% 26% 35%
Denno Research April 6–7, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 2% 2% 15% 17% 63%
Marketing Resource Group March 13–17, 2018 233 ± 6.4% 3% 10% 21% 18% 48%
Target-Insyght March 6–8, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 4% 6% 20% 34% 3% 33%
EPIC-MRA (D-Thanedar) February 17–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 3% 8% 24% 34% 31%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 4% 13% 2% 45% 8% 28%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 255 ± 4.0% 8% 4% 3% 27% 58%

Results

Results by county:
Democratic primary results [43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer 588,436 52.0
Democratic Abdul El-Sayed 342,179 30.2
Democratic Shri Thanedar 200,645 17.7
Total votes 1,131,447 100.0

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party is one of three parties that have a primary in Michigan.[83]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in Primary

Endorsements

John Tatar
Organizations
  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[28]

Debates

Host
network
Date Participants
Bill
Gelineau
John
Tatar
WOOD-TV[85] July 15, 2018 Invited Invited
WJBK-TV[86] July 22, 2018 Invited Invited

Results

Libertarian primary results[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bill Gelineau 4,034 57.8
Libertarian John Tatar 2,941 42.2
Total votes 6,975 100.0

Green Convention

The Green Party chose candidates for the 2018 ballot at its state convention on May 5th, 2018 at the University of Michigan-Flint.[87]

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

  • Jennifer Kurland, President of the Redford Union School Board[87]

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

  • Todd Schleiger

Natural Law Party

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Lean D October 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[90] Lean D October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Likely D October 11, 2018
RealClearPolitics[92] Lean D October 12, 2018
Daily Kos[93] Likely D October 5, 2018
Fox News[94][lower-alpha 1] Lean D October 12, 2018
Politico[95] Lean D October 12, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Bill Schuette (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Representatives[107]
State Senators[107]
Organizations
Local officials
Other individuals
Gretchen Whitmer (D)[122]
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Notable Individuals
Bill Gelineau (L)[144]
Notable Individuals
  • Mary Buzuma, 2014 Candidate for Governor
  • Kenneth Proctor, 2010 Candidate for Governor
  • Greg Creswell, 2006 Candidate for Governor
Todd Schleiger (USTP)[145]
Organizations
  • The Modern Whig Party
  • The Education Watchdogs
  • Protect OutStolen Treasures

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Schuette (R)
Gretchen
Whitmer (D)
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 38% 46% 6% 10%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 47% 5% 13%
EPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 7%[146] 11%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 39% 52% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 41% 50%
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 38% 48% 5% 9%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 49% 12%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 50% 4%[147] 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 37% 52% 11%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 36% 45% 2% 17%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 36% 43% 9% 12%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 38% 47% 1% 14%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 37% 42% 20%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC) June 18–21, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 39% 40% 20%
EPIC-MRA April 30 – May 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 43% 19%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 40% 25%
Michigan State University September 14, 2017 – January 18, 2018 963 ± 3.2% 35% 41% 24%
EPIC-MRA December 9–13, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 38% 35% 27%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 40% 41% 19%
EPIC-MRA August 27 – September 1, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 37% 37% 26%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 27, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Gretchen Whitmer (D) $7,134,218.66 $5,599,850.57 $1,534,368.09
Bill Schuette (R) $6,175,889.09 $4,741,577.63 $1,434,311.46
Bill Gelineau (L) $54,785.88 $51,267.71 $3,518.17
Source: Michigan Department of State[148]

Debates

Two televised debates between Schuette and Whitmer are scheduled. The first debate was held on Friday, October 12 hosted by Grand Rapids television station WOOD-TV.[149] That debate mainly concentrated on issues and there were no surprises or major errors from either candidate.[150] The second debate will be hosted by Detroit television station WDIV and is scheduled for Wednesday, October 24.[151]

Results

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Bill Schuette
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer
Libertarian Bill Gelineau
Taxpayers Todd Schleiger
Green Jennifer Kurland
Natural Law Keith Butkovich
Majority
Turnout

References

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  123. name="Marc Daalder" group="Detroit Free Press">Daalder, Marc. "Joe Biden endorses Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan's governor race". Detroit Free Press. Marc Daalder. Retrieved 15 August 2018.
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  125. Debbie Stabenow. "Garlin Gilchrist II is a tremendous choice! He's a proven problem solver and community leader with a strong background in technology. @Gretchenwhitmer and @garlin are the partners in Lansing we need to get things done for MI families!". Twitter.
  126. Gary Peters. "We need leaders in Lansing who will expand access to affordable health care and fight for middle class families. That's why I'm proud to support @gretchenwhitmer for Governor and @garlin for Lieutenant Governor! #MIGOV". Twitter.
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  128. Gretchen Whitmer. "I'm proud to have the support of @BernieSanders! Join us Friday, October 19th for a rally with Senator Sanders at @UMich's Rackham Auditorium". Twitter.
  129. 1 2 3 4 Gray, Kathleen. "Congressional Democrats endorse Gretchen Whitmer for Governor". Detroit Free Press. Gannett Company. Retrieved 12 Mar 2018.
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  132. Gretchen Whitmer. "Thank you Rep. Sneller for your support!". Twitter.
  133. "Endorsements". Gretchen Whitmer for Governor. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  134. Gretchen Whitmer. "Thank you for your support, @RepDanKildee!". Twitter.
  135. Gretchen Whitmer. "Elections are won through hard work and determination. I'm so grateful for the support of @mayormikeduggan and everyone who put in the work to help us win. Now let's get to work and make sure we do it again in November!". Twitter.
  136. Randick, Michael (November 14, 2017). "Iron Workers Local 25 Endorses Gretchen Whitmer for Governor". Praise 102.7.
  137. Bieber, Ron (April 11, 2018). "Michigan AFL-CIO Endorses Gretchen Whitmer for Governor - Michigan AFL-CIO". Michigan AFL-CIO.
  138. Langefeld, Riley (January 16, 2018). "Michigan Education Association endorses Gretchen Whitmer for governor". The Michigan Daily.
  139. "International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Michigan State Conference Endorses Gretchen Whitmer for Governor". Medium.com. Retrieved 14 February 2018.
  140. Williams, Dennis (March 19, 2018). "United Automobile Workers Endorse Gretchen Whitmer for Governor". UAW.
  141. "Cecile Richards on Twitter". Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  142. "Chelsea Handler on Twitter". Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  143. "ENDORSEMENTS (Bottom of campaign website homepage)". The Bill Gelineau for Governor Committee. Retrieved September 21, 2018.
  144. "Endorsements from Todd Schleiger's website" (PDF). August 11, 2018. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  145. Bill Gelineau with 2%, other with 5%
  146. Includes Bill Gelineau with 2%, Jennifer Kurland with 0.8%, Keith Butkovich with 0.5%, and Todd Schleiger with 0.5%. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=822587
  147. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved September 24, 2018.
  148. https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/schuette-whitmer-to-debate-in-grand-rapids/1445190354
  149. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/12/whitmer-schuette-spar-grand-rapids-debate/1617151002/
  150. https://www.clickondetroit.com/michigan-elections/local-4-to-host-bill-schuette-gretchen-whitmer-for-gubernatorial-debate-on-oct-24?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=amp_socialshare
Official campaign websites
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