United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2018

United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2018
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Both Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives

 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 1

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine will be held on November 6, 2018, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections will coincide with elections to the United States Senate, a gubernatorial election, and various state and local elections.

These U.S. House elections will be conducted with ranked choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016[1]and a June 2018 referendum sustaining the change.[2] Ranked choice voting was used in the primary elections as well.[3]

District 1

Chellie Pingree, the incumbent representative, was first elected in 2008, and in 2016 defeated Republican nominee Mark Holbrook with just under 58 percent of the vote. Holbrook ran again for the Republican nomination, and was unopposed. Independent State Representative Marty Grohman, elected as a Democrat in the 2016 State House election, defected the party in 2017. He launched his campaign for the first district in spring 2018.

Due to the use of ranked choice voting in the election, Pingree may be vulnerable if she does not win outright in the first round, as Grohman could be a second choice for Republican and Democratic voters. [4] Grohman is receiving substantial support from Republican elected officials and activists, including Republican Governor Paul LePage[5] and the State Director of President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign Christie-Lee McNally.[6]

Democratic primary

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 74,376 90.7
Democratic Blank ballots 7,615 9.3
Total votes 81,991 100.0

Republican primary

Declared

  • Mark Holbrook, professional counselor and 2016 nominee for this seat[8]

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Holbrook 40,679 80.9
Republican Blank ballots 9,581 19.1
Total votes 50,260 100.0

Independents

Declared

  • Marty Grohman, state representative [8]

Endorsements

Marty Grohman
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

General election

Results

Maine's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent)
Republican Mark Holbrook
Independent Marty Grohman
Total votes

District 2

Bruce Poliquin, the incumbent representative for the second district, defeated Democrat Emily Cain in the 2016 election in a rematch of the 2014 election where Poliquin was first elected. Poliquin ran for the Republican nomination unopposed. Cain did not challenge Poliquin again, instead taking a job with the progressive group Emily's List. Initially, six candidates filed for the Democratic nomination — United States Postal Service employee and activist Phil Cleaves, carpenter and former Maine State Senate candidate Jonathan Fulford, Assistant Majority Leader of the State House of Representatives Jared Golden, shopkeeper and former Chair of the Isleboro Board of Selectmen Craig Olson, businessman and former State Senate candidate Tim Rich, and conservationist Lucas St. Clair. Cleaves, Rich and Fulford dropped out at various points in the campaign, though Fulford's withdrawal happened too late for his name to be removed from the primary ballot. Several candidates received prominent endorsements; St. Clair was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and California Congressman Jared Huffman, Fulford by the left-wing group Our Revolution prior to his withdrawal from the race, and Golden by VoteVets, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton and over two dozen members of the Maine Legislature. Golden defeated St. Clair and Olson on the second ballot after ranked choice voting.

In addition, two third-party candidates announced their candidacies for the seat: Houlton Band of Maliseets State Representative Henry John Bear of the Maine Green Independent Party and Brian Kresge of the Libertarian Party. Bear, a former Democrat, left the party due to its stance on water rights for Maine's native people. He failed to qualify for the ballot. Kresge, a veteran and writer, withdrew from the race to run for a seat in the State House of Representatives. Neither the Libertarians nor Green Independents will have a candidate on the ballot.

Two independent candidates qualified for the ballot: Tiffany Bond, an attorney from Portland (a city outside of the second district), and Will Hoar, a schoolteacher.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn)
Individuals
  • Ben Chin, Democratic nominee for Mayor of Lewiston, 2015 and 2017[22]
Organizations
Jared Golden
State and local politicians
Other individuals
Local Democratic organizations
National organizations
Local and statewide organizations
  • Maine People's Alliance[31]
Trade Unions
Lucas St. Clair
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Jonathan
Fulford		 Jared
Golden		 Craig
Olson		 Lucas
St. Clair		 Other Undecided
Survey USA (with RCV) April 26-May 1, 2018 217 LV ± 7.2% Round 1 17% 22% 5% 25% - 31%
Round 2 27% 35% - 38% -
Round 3 - 49% - 51% -
Global Strategy Group October 2–5, 2017 300 ± 5.7% N/A - 8% - 40% 7% 45%

Fundraising

(Through March 31, 2017)[38]

  • Jared Golden: $618,380.33
  • Lucas St. Clair: $424,958.42
  • Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn): $166,989.79
  • Craig Olson: $100,299.00
  • Tim Rich (withdrawn): $72,197.20
  • Emily Cain (not running): $24,692.88

Results

Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 2
Votes % Transfer Votes %
Democratic Jared Golden 20,987 46.4% +2,624 23,611 54.3%
Democratic Lucas St. Clair 17,742 39.2% +2,111 19,853 45.7%
Democratic Craig Olson 3,993 8.8% -3,993 Eliminated
Democratic Jonathan Fulford 2,489 5.5% -2,489 Eliminated
Democratic Invalid votes^ 7,381 n/a
Total votes 50,845 100.0%

^Blank ballots and overvotes

Republican primary

Declared

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 43,047 83.9
Republican Blank ballots 8,278 16.1
Total votes 51,325 100.0

Green primary

Failed to make the ballot

Libertarian primary

Withdrawn

Independent candidates

  • Tiffany Bond, attorney[42]
  • Will Hoar, schoolteacher[42]

General election

Jared Golden
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Trade unions
Organizations
Bruce Poliquin
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Jared
Golden
(D)		 Bruce
Poliquin
(R)		 Tiffany
Bond
(I)		 Will
Hoar
(I)		 Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 12–14, 2018 506 ± 4.8% – 42% 47% – – 11%
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) September 4–7, 2018 – ± 4.9% – 54% 46% – – –
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) July 25–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% Round 1 39% 40% 3% 1% 16%
Round 2 48% 48% 4% – –
Round 3 51% 49% – –

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[53] Toss-up October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[54] Toss-up September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] Toss-up October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[56] Toss-up September 28, 2018
Fox News[57] Toss-up September 21, 2018
CNN[58] Toss-up October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[59] Toss-up September 21, 2018
The New York Times[60] Toss-up September 26, 2018
Politico[61] Toss-up September 21, 2018

Results

Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jared Golden
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent)
Independent Tiffany Bond
Independent Will Hoar
Total votes

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Maine became the first state in the country Tuesday to pass ranked choice voting". Boston Globe. 10 November 2016. Retrieved 17 November 2016.
  2. ↑ "Maine Voters Overrule Their Leaders". The Atlantic. 15 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  3. ↑ "Ranked-choice voting fans hope Maine's experiment pays off". 21 June 2018.
  4. ↑ Scott Thistle (May 29, 2018). "State lawmaker submits enough signatures to challenge Rep. Pingree". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved August 30, 2018.
  5. 1 2 "Maine GOP Governor Backs Independent In Congressional Race". MPBN. June 20, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 "Massive Group of ME Republican Leaders Endorse Marty Grohman for Congress". MartyGrohman.com. September 12, 2018.
  7. ↑ Scott Thistle (December 19, 2017). "Pingree says she won't run for governor in 2018". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved December 19, 2017.
  8. 1 2 "Grohman to challenge Pingree in 1st District as independent". Mainebiz.biz. April 10, 2018. Retrieved April 10, 2018.
  9. 1 2 3 "Race for 1st Congressional District seat tests Republicans' unity". Portland Press Herald. September 13, 2018. Retrieved September 15, 2018.
  10. ↑ "Maine Sportsman's Coalition Backs Grohman for Congress". MartyGrohman.com. September 21, 2018.
  11. ↑ "Incumbent Independents". Unite America. Retrieved 18 August 2018.
  12. ↑ Grohman, Marty [@1050064370707894272] (October 10, 2018). "BIG NEWS: The @USChamber just endorsed my campaign for Congress! The Chamber represents 3 million business worldwide and its message is clear: if you're interested in building Maine's economy, the choice in this election is crystal clear. #fixnotfight #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter. Missing or empty |number= (help)
  13. 1 2 Pathé, Simone (July 20, 2017). "Democrats Eyeing Maine Natives to Unseat Bruce Poliquin". Roll Call. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  14. 1 2 Shepherd, Michael (July 24, 2017). "National Democrats recruit a Marine born in Maine to challenge Poliquin". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
  15. ↑ Roll Call Staff (August 25, 2017). "At the Races: As Goes Maine, So Goes ..." Roll Call. Retrieved October 12, 2017.
  16. ↑ Bukaty, Robert (October 2, 2017). "Lucas St. Clair Says He's Running for Congress, Shaking Up Democratic Primary Field". MPBN. Retrieved October 2, 2017.
  17. ↑ http://www.sunjournal.com/democratic-2nd-district-congressional-race-heats-up/
  18. ↑ Cousins, Christopher (July 19, 2017). "Third Democrat jumps into race to oust Bruce Poliquin". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  19. ↑ Pat Callaghan [@PatCallaghan6] (April 30, 2018). "One of the Dems running in CD-2 has quit the race. Release from Jonathan Fulford campaign says "Today, I suspended my campaign for personal reasons. I regret the necessity and will not be taking questions at this time." #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  20. 1 2 3 http://www.sunjournal.com/congressional-contender-tim-rich-alleges-rigged-game-in-democratic-primary/
  21. ↑ https://secure.mainecampaignfinance.com/PublicSite/SearchPages/FilingAmendmentSelect.aspx?FilingID=166867
  22. ↑ http://www.sunjournal.com/democratic-2nd-district-congressional-race-heats-up/
  23. ↑ @ourrevolution (April 29, 2018). "We're proud to endorse @fulfordformaine to represent the people of Maine's 2nd district. Jonathan will fight to get big money out of politics and to make sure corporations pay their fair share in taxes. ourrev.us/jonathan-fulfo…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/endorsements/
  25. 1 2 Gideon, Sara (March 8, 2018). "Sara Gideon: Why I support Jared Golden". Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  26. ↑ Amy Fried [@ASFried] (May 24, 2018). "Am endorsing Golden for the nomination He's accomplished the most and done so in a divided legislature with a GOP governor, and did so after serving his country in the military and working in DC for a U.S. senator. All the Dems have better policies than Poliquin. #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  27. ↑ Bradner, Eric (November 30, 2017). "Rep. Seth Moulton's plan to overhaul House Democrats with a 'new generation of leaders'". CNN. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  28. ↑ https://www.facebook.com/notes/lewiston-democratic-party/lewiston-democratic-party-unanimously-votes-to-endorse-jared-golden-for-congress/10155268669178369/
  29. ↑ https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/913801719699660805
  30. ↑ Progressive Caucus [@electprogress] (June 4, 2018). "Jared Golden in #ME02 @golden4congress" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  31. ↑ Neumann, Dan (June 7, 2018). "Maine People's Alliance endorses Jared Golden in 'high stakes' CD-2 race". Maine Beacon. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  32. ↑ Jared Golden [@golden4congress] (May 9, 2018). "Proud to be .@MEAFLCIO endorsed! #labor #unions #Democrats" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  33. ↑ @NationalNurses (May 18, 2018). "NNU is proud to endorse Jared Golden @golden4congress for Congress in ME-02. Nurses are on #TeamGolden because Jared stands with labor and will work for #MedicareForAll!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  34. ↑ Anthony Emerson [@AnthonyEmerso14] (June 12, 2018). "At the 11th hour, @JaredHuffman endorses @Lucasstclair #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  35. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (November 30, 2017). "Dropouts, straw polls hint at who to take seriously in crowded Maine governor's race". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved February 27, 2018.
  36. ↑ Auster, Craig (January 29, 2018). "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES LUCAS ST. CLAIR FOR CONGRESS". LCV.org. Retrieved April 25, 2018.
  37. ↑ "St. Clair's monument work gives him edge in 2nd District Democratic primary". Bangor Daily News. May 24, 2018. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  38. ↑ https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/ME/02/2018/
  39. ↑ https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results18.html#nonrank
  40. ↑ http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-has-almost-2-million-in-campaign-cash-far-more-than-opponents/
  41. ↑ http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/index.html
  42. 1 2 @TiffanyBond (June 12, 2018). "#mepolitics, Our #ME02 ballot is set. @tiffanybond @RepPoliquin @golden4congress @willhoar I look forward to competition that brings out the best in us. Pick the person who will make functional, humane law for rural Maine. Gentlemen, be kind and wise in your campaigns" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  43. ↑ Fried, Amy [@ASFried] (August 20, 2018). "I didn't know that GOP Sen. Saviello is backing Golden. Perhaps they'll be a Republicans for Golden group. #mepolitics www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-look-to-flip-new-englands-one-gop-house-seat-1534757401 …" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  44. 1 2 Kamp, Jon (August 20, 2018). "Democrats Look to Flip New England's One GOP House Seat". Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on August 20, 2018. Retrieved August 20, 2018.
  45. ↑ Amy Fried [@ASFried] (May 24, 2018). "Am endorsing Golden for the nomination He's accomplished the most and done so in a divided legislature with a GOP governor, and did so after serving his country in the military and working in DC for a U.S. senator. All the Dems have better policies than Poliquin. #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  46. ↑ King, Stephen [@StephenKing] (August 19, 2018). "youtu.be/SVKcHMCh1EQ This is the guy running in Maine's 2nd district against NRA sweetheart Bruce Poliquin" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  47. ↑ Neumann, Dan (June 7, 2018). "Maine People's Alliance endorses Jared Golden in 'high stakes' CD-2 race". Maine Beacon. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  48. ↑ "Jared Golden - Candidate Profile - MoveOn.org". MoveOn.org.
  49. ↑ Collins, Steve [@SteveCollinsSJ] (August 28, 2018). "The @USChamber is weighing in with a new tv ad touting @RepPoliquin for his fight against tariffs that it says would hurt Maine exporters. Watch it here: youtu.be/3EvFzBAEonQ #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  50. ↑ Collins, Steve (August 24, 2018). "Pro-Trump Super PAC to spend $1 million to help Bruce Poliquin". Lewiston Sun Journal.
  51. ↑ Bruce Poliquin. "JUST IN: The Sportsman's Alliance of Maine recognizes my hard work on behalf of Maine's sportsmen and women. I have long fought for Maine's strong traditional outdoor heritage and I will continue to do so as our Congressman. I appreciate their endorsement and support. #mepolitics". Twitter.
  52. ↑ "NRA Endorses Poliquin in the 2nd Congressional District of Maine". NRA-ILA. September 20, 2018.
  53. ↑ "2018 House Race Ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-08-13.
  54. ↑ "House Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  55. ↑ "2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-08-13.
  56. ↑ "Daily Kos: House 2018". Daily Kos. September 28, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  57. ↑ "Fox News Midterms 2018 America's Election HQ". Fox News. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  58. ↑ "CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move toward Democrats". Retrieved 2018-07-30.
  59. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - 2018 Election Maps - Battle for the House 2018". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  60. ↑ "Elections 2018: Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections". Retrieved 2018-08-13.
  61. ↑ "Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election". POLITICO. Retrieved 2018-09-07.
Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
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