United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Dean Heller Jacky Rosen Tim Hagan
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Dean Heller
Republican


The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada will take place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. Senators from Nevada.

Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller considered a bid for Nevada Governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. Nevada is the only state in the midterm elections that has an incumbent Republican Senator in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.[1][2]

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018 and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[3]

Background

Nevada was once considered a swing state that leaned slightly rightward, voting for George W. Bush twice. However, it has since become the opposite, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Dean Heller to the Senate by one point. In 2016, the state shifted again rightward, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, Heller is as of 2018 cited by many observers as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for re-election in 2018, a year with few of that type; President Donald Trump had even warned that if Senator Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his Senate seat in the next election.[4][5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher[9]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator[10]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Dean Heller
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local office-holders
Individuals
Groups
Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)
Governors
Individuals

Polling

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 99,470 69.96
Republican Tom Heck 26,291 18.49
Republican None of These Candidates 5,975 4.20
Republican Sherry Brooks 5,144 3.62
Republican Sarah Gazala 4,011 2.82
Republican Vic Harrell 1,282 0.90
Total votes 142,173 100.00

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Danny Burieigh
  • David Drew Knight
  • Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[32]
  • Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative[33]
  • Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016[34]

Declined

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers

Results

Results by county:


Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jacky Rosen 110,531 77.12
Democratic None of These Candidates 10,070 7.03
Democratic David Knight 6,340 4.42
Democratic Allen Rheinhart 4,774 3.33
Democratic Jesse Sbaih 4,538 3.17
Democratic Bobby Mahendra 3,833 2.67
Democratic Danny Burleigh 3,244 2.26
Total votes 143,330 100.00

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate[74]
  • Kamau Bakari[75]

General election

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers
Dean Heller
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local office-holders
Individuals
Groups
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[112] Tossup September 21, 2018
Inside Elections[113] Tossup September 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[114] Tossup September 6, 2018
Daily Kos[115] Tossup September 17, 2018
Fox News[116] Tossup September 19, 2018
CNN[117] Tossup September 15, 2018
RealClearPolitics[118] Tossup September 10, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent $10,939,110 $5,289,517 $5,874,814
Jacky Rosen (D) $9,401,407 $5,588,073 $3,828,593
Source: Federal Election Commission[119]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Tim
Hagan (L)
None of
these
Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–10, 2018 642 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 1% 7%
Marist College September 30 – October 3, 2018 574 LV ± 5.5% 44% 42% 8% 2% <1% 4%
46% 44% 5% 1% 4%
780 RV ± 4.5% 42% 41% 8% 3% <1% 6%
45% 43% 6% 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 693 LV ± 4.6% 43% 47% 4% 5% 0% 1%
851 RV ± 4.1% 40% 43% 5% 10% 0% 2%
Ipsos September 7–17, 2018 1,039 ± 4.0% 46% 43% 4% 8%
Gravis Marketing September 11–12, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 8%
Suffolk University September 5–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 42% 2% 2% 4%[120] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) August 20–21, 2018 528 ± 4.3% 43% 48%
Suffolk University July 24–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 40% 2% 5% 3%[121] 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,097 ± 5.5% 45% 48% 7%
Gravis Marketing June 23–26, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 41% 45% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018 637 ± 3.9% 42% 44% 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,332 ± 5.0% 44% 50% 6%
The Mellman Group April 12–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 39% 44% 17%
Public Policy Polling June 23–25, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 41% 42% 17%

Results

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Jacky Rosen
Independent American Kamau Bakari
Independent Richard Charles
Independent Barry Michaels
Libertarian Tim Hagan
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent)
Majority
Turnout

References

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  2. Rindels, Michelle (November 25, 2016). "Fresh off 2016 losses, Democrats target 2018 Senate races". Nevada Appeal. Retrieved November 25, 2016.
  3. "United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  4. Editor-at-large, Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN. "Donald Trump threatened Dean Heller on health care. Heller was sitting next to him". CNN. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  5. Stahl, Jeremy (July 19, 2017). "Trump Threatens Sen. Dean Heller at Lunch, May Have Found Trumpcare Patsy". Slate. ISSN 1091-2339. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  6. "Unclear if Nevada Sen. Dean Heller still supports Kavanaugh". Reno Gazette Journal. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  7. "Heller backs Kavanaugh, and Trump-ordered FBI probe, as drama unfolds on Capitol Hill". Reno Gazette Journal. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  8. Hellmann, Jessie (2018-10-04). "Planned Parenthood targets Dean Heller on Kavanaugh comments in ad". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  9. GAZALA, SARAH
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  27. "Laborers Union Local 872 Endorses Dean Heller". Heller for Senate. August 14, 2018.
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  49. Masto, Catherine Cortez (July 6, 2017). "Today, I'm proud to endorse @RosenforNevada as Nevada's next U.S. Senator. Jacky's the fighter NV families need". Twitter. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  50. "NV-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Increase The Number Of Women In The Senate". Daily Kos. January 4, 2018.
  51. "AZ & NV-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps These Two Women Take Back The U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. December 13, 2017.
  52. "TX, NV & AZ-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D. WA) Helps Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017.
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  55. "NV-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Win A Democratic Senate Majority". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  56. "AZ, TX & NV-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D) Helps Her Fellow Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 19, 2017.
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  61. Blue, Luisa; Springer, Debbie (February 28, 2018). "SEIU Nevada Local 1107 Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". www.seiunv.org.
  62. "WI & NV-Sen: Council For A Livable World Endorses Tammy Baldwin (D) & Jacky Rosen (D)". Daily Kos. November 19, 2017.
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  64. Schriock, Stephanie (July 7, 2017). "EMILY's List Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate in Nevada". www.emilyslist.org.
  65. Tiffany Muller (August 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  66. "HRC Endorses Jacky Rosen of Nevada for U.S. Senate". Retrieved December 3, 2017.
  67. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate - League of Conservation Voters". League of Conservation Voters. August 2, 2017.
  68. "NARAL Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". Retrieved August 13, 2017.
  69. "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017.
  70. Dison, Denis (July 13, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund endorses Rosen in Nevada Senate race". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  71. Laguens, Dawn (April 17, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Nevada's Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  72. "2018 Endorsements". Sierra Club. December 7, 2017.
  73. "Daily Kos endorses Nevada Democrat Jacky Rosen to oust the most spineless member of the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018.
  74. Barry Michaels (August 9, 2017). "Barry Michaels U.S. Senate Nevada 2018 - Challenges Federal Gun Control Act". EIN Presswire. Retrieved September 11, 2017.
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  77. Masto, Catherine Cortez (July 6, 2017). "Today, I'm proud to endorse @RosenforNevada as Nevada's next U.S. Senator. Jacky's the fighter NV families need". Twitter. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  78. "NV-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Increase The Number Of Women In The Senate". Daily Kos. January 4, 2018.
  79. "AZ & NV-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps These Two Women Take Back The U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. December 13, 2017.
  80. "TX, NV & AZ-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D. WA) Helps Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017.
  81. Debenedetti, Gabriel; Everett, Burgess (October 24, 2017). "Reid gone from D.C. — but still pulling strings". POLITICO.
  82. "NV-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Win A Democratic Senate Majority". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  83. "AZ, TX & NV-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D) Helps Her Fellow Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 19, 2017.
  84. "Teamsters Joint Council 42 Political Endorsements". Teamsters JC 42.
  85. "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
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  87. Murillo, Jr., Ruben (March 1, 2018). "Nevada State Education Association Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate" (PDF). www.nsea-nv.org. Nevada State Education Association.
  88. Blue, Luisa; Springer, Debbie (February 28, 2018). "SEIU Nevada Local 1107 Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". www.seiunv.org.
  89. "WI & NV-Sen: Council For A Livable World Endorses Tammy Baldwin (D) & Jacky Rosen (D)". Daily Kos. November 19, 2017.
  90. Van Hollen, Chris (July 6, 2017). "DSCC Endorses Jacky Rosen In NV Senate Campaign - DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
  91. Schriock, Stephanie (July 7, 2017). "EMILY's List Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate in Nevada". www.emilyslist.org.
  92. Tiffany Muller (August 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  93. "HRC Endorses Jacky Rosen of Nevada for U.S. Senate". Retrieved December 3, 2017.
  94. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate - League of Conservation Voters". League of Conservation Voters. August 2, 2017.
  95. "NARAL Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". Retrieved August 13, 2017.
  96. "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017.
  97. Dison, Denis (July 13, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund endorses Rosen in Nevada Senate race". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  98. Laguens, Dawn (April 17, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Nevada's Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  99. "2018 Endorsements". Sierra Club. December 7, 2017.
  100. "Daily Kos endorses Nevada Democrat Jacky Rosen to oust the most spineless member of the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018.
  101. Shaw, Adam (June 22, 2018). "Trump travels to Las Vegas to back Sen. Heller amid push to expand GOP's hold on Senate". Fox News. Retrieved June 22, 2018.
  102. "Mike Pence returning to Nevada to campaign for Dean Heller". Las Vegas Review-Journal. March 1, 2018.
  103. "Sharks circle around Dean Heller". CNN. June 28, 2017.
  104. Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
  105. "This potential Democratic gubernatorial candidate just endorsed Nevada's GOP senator for re-election". Daily Kos. April 26, 2017.
  106. Giwargis, Ramona (May 9, 2018). "Campaign 2018: Hispanic activists show support for Dean Heller". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved May 10, 2018.
  107. Giwargis, Ramona (July 26, 2018). "Dean Heller lands law enforcement union endorsement". Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  108. "Small Business Endorses U.S. Senator Dean Heller for Re-election". NFIB. August 6, 2018.
  109. "National Right to Life Endorses Dean Heller". Heller for Senate. February 15, 2018.
  110. Associated Press (May 22, 2018). "NRA Endorses Dean Heller, 3 Republicans Running for US House". U.S. News & World Report.
  111. "Laborers Union Local 872 Endorses Dean Heller". Heller for Senate. August 14, 2018.
  112. "2018 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2018-04-08.
  113. "Senate Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2018-04-08.
  114. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2018-04-08.
  115. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  116. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  117. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  118. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  119. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  120. Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2%
  121. Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0%
Official campaign websites
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