United States elections, 2018

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Nearly half of all ads by Democrats focused on health care, in particular on defending the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and keeping in place protections for individuals with preexisting conditions.^[1] Almost a third of Republicans ads focused on taxes, in particular the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.^[1]

President Trump and officials campaigning

In May 2018, President Trump began to emphasize his effort to overcome the traditional strength of the non-Presidential party in midterm elections, with "top priority for the White House [being to hold] the Republican majority in the Senate". He was already at that time well into his own 2020 reelection campaign, having launched it on inauguration day, 2017. In May, on a trip to Texas for a Houston fundraiser targeting the midterms, he also held a fundraising dinner in Dallas for the 2020 campaign.^[2] By early August, the president's midterms' effort had included rallies in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Montana and elsewhere "reprising the style and rhetoric of his 2016 campaign". Democrats "need to flip 23 seats to capture the speaker's gavel", USA Today put it. The President was addressing the economy, the border wall, the "trade war", "don't believe anything" and the space force in the rallies, per the report.^[3]

In late August 2018, controversy surfaced about the degree of campaigning being done on what were termed "official" visits around the country. One report said, traditionally, partisan attacks and endorsements were kept out of official events but that President Trump was not observing that norm. Beyond the norm, one commentator was quoted referring to "laws designed to prevent taxpayer resources from being used for self-serving purposes ― in this case, for campaign purposes.” White House-recognized individuals "familiar with the president's thinking" spoke without attribution on a conference call and in another call about the campaigning. The individuals identified 35 events by Cabinet and senior staff members "with or affecting House districts in August already ... [all] targeted districts" and described a July 26 Presidential trip, presented as "official", as having been "for" Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa and Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois. The White House responded to the report: 'It is unfortunate but ultimately unsurprising that a liberal publication like Huffington Post would make these misleading accusations and misconstrue the intent of the response,' deputy press secretary Lindsay Walters said."^[4]

Russian interference

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats stated during congressional testimony that "the United States is under attack" from Russian efforts to impact the results of the elections.^[5] As of February 13, 2018, six US intelligence agencies unanimously reported their conclusion^[6] that Russian personnel are monitoring American electoral systems, and promoting partisan causes on social media.^[7]

On May 23, 2018, United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in a committee hearing, warned that the US government was not adequately protected from Russian interference in the 2018 midterms elections, saying, "No responsible government official would ever state that they have done enough to forestall any attack on the United States of America".^[8]

On July 26, 2018, Missouri's Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill alleged that Russian hackers unsuccessfully attempted to break into her Senate email account,^[9] confirming a report in The Daily Beast.^[10]

On August 2, 2018, the Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats announced along with FBI Director Christopher Wray at a White House press conference that Russia is actively interfering in the 2018 elections, saying "It is real. It is ongoing."^[11]

Also on August 2, 2018, NPR reported that Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen reported to the FBI several attempts to compromise her campaign^[12] including both spearphishing attempts on her staff, and a disturbing incident where someone called her offices "impersonating a Latvian official, trying to set up a meeting to talk to me about Russian sanctions and about Ukraine." Her opposition to Russian aggression and support of sanctions has placed her on an official Russian blacklist.^[13]

On August 8, 2018, Florida Senator Bill Nelson told the Tampa Bay Times that Russian operatives have penetrated some of Florida's election systems ahead of the 2018 midterm elections. "They have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about," Nelson told the newspaper. He also stated that more detailed information is classified.^[14] The Russian hackers may be able to prevent some voters from casting votes by removing people from the voter rolls.^[15] Nelson provided no evidence of Russian hacking and was criticized by The Washington Post's Fact Checker who gave Nelson's claim four Pinocchios denoting it as an outright lie.^[16]

At a summit in Helsinki with Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the conclusions of the US intelligence community, stating that he believed Putin's repeated denials of interference in American elections. Later, President Trump answered "no" in response to questions asking if he believed Russia would be targeting the midterm elections, but later claimed he was refusing to answer the question, not responding to it. In late July, the President reversed his position and said in a tweet that he's "very concerned" about allegations of Russian meddling, but adding that he believed interference would only benefit Democrats.^[17]

Chinese interference

On September 26, 2018, at the United Nations Security Council, Donald Trump accused China of meddling in the upcoming midterm elections in America. Trump claimed that China was trying to damage his political stand prior to the elections as he has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese goods.^[18] Trump claimed, "they don't want me or us to win because I am the first president to ever challenge China on trade." China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, also present at the meeting denounced the accusation saying, "we did not and will not interfere in any countries' domestic affairs. We refuse to accept any unwarranted accusations against China."^[19]

On September 25, 2018, Dan Coats, US Director of National Intelligence issued a warning about China’s cyber activities, calling them "unprecedented in scale" and "among the most active foreign states conducting cyber activities against United States interests."^[20] On September 18, 2018, Trump accused China on Twitter for “actively trying to impact and change our election by attacking our farmers, ranchers and industrial workers because of their loyalty to me".^[21][22]

Senate

The 33 senators in Senate Class I will be up for election. 23 of the seats to be contested are presently held by Democrats, and eight by Republicans (three of whom are retiring), with two being independents. The continuing senators are 43 Republican, and 24 Democrat. According to FiveThirtyEight, in 2018, Democrats face the most unfavorable Senate map that any party has ever faced in any election, as Democrats have to defend 24 Senate seats to eight Republican Senate seats.^[23][24]

Additionally, special elections are scheduled for the same day, to fill vacancies in the other two Senate Classes: in Minnesota and Mississippi to fill the seats vacated by Al Franken and Thad Cochran, respectively.

House of Representatives

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election. Additionally, elections will be held to select non-voting delegates for the District of Columbia and the U.S. territories, with the exception of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.

During or prior to the 2018 House election on November 6, there will be at least eight special elections:

• Special election in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district following the resignation of Tim Murphy (R), held on March 13, 2018; won by Conor Lamb (D).
• Special election in Arizona's 8th congressional district following the resignation of Trent Franks (R), held on April 24, 2018; won by Debbie Lesko (R).
• Special election in Texas's 27th congressional district following the resignation of Blake Farenthold (R), held on June 30, 2018; won by Michael Cloud (R).
• Special election in Ohio's 12th congressional district following the resignation of Pat Tiberi (R), held on August 7, 2018; won by Troy Balderson (R).
• Special election in Michigan's 13th congressional district following the resignation of John Conyers (D), to be held on November 6, 2018, coinciding with the regular elections.
• Special election in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district following the resignation of Pat Meehan (R), to be held on November 6, 2018, coinciding with the regular elections.
• Special election in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district following the resignation of Charlie Dent (R), to be held on November 6, 2018, coinciding with the regular elections.
• Special election in New York's 25th congressional district following the death of Louise Slaughter (D), to be held on November 6, 2018, coinciding with the regular elections.

In November 2017, the number of Republican congresspeople announcing their impending retirements or resigning their seats was vastly higher than since the 2006 Congress.^[25] Most of these congresspeople faced tough reelection bids in 2018.^[25] The number of retirements by Democrats was in line with previous Congresses.^[25] The disproportionate number of Republican impending retirements is likely to harm Republican prospects in the 2018 mid-term elections as there will be fewer districts where Republicans have the incumbency advantage.^[26][27][28] In the states of Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina, there will be no senatorial or gubernatorial elections, leaving House candidates at the top of the ticket.