Texas gubernatorial election, 2018

Texas gubernatorial election, 2018

November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Greg Abbott Lupe Valdez
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican


The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 6, 2018 to elect the Governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running for re-election to a second term in office[1] and will face Democrat Lupe Valdez, the former Sheriff of Dallas County, as well as Libertarian candidate Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.

The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season.[2] Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.[3] Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and will face Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.[4]

Valdez's victory makes her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.[5]

Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13-15, 2018. He defeated four challengers and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Abbott
Presidents of the United States
Vice Presidents of the United States
U.S. Senators
Statewide officeholders
Organizations
Newspapers
Larry Kilgore
Religious leaders

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Barbara
Krueger
Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 4.7% 84% 2% 1%[19] 13%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 95% 5% 0%[20]

Results

Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 1,392,310 90.38% -1.11%
Republican Barbara Krueger 127,549 8.28%
Republican Larry Kilgore 20,504 1.33% -0.09%
Total votes 1,540,363 100% +202,488
Turnout 10.10%[22] -0.26%[22]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jeffrey Payne
Newspapers
Lupe Valdez
U.S. Cabinet and Cabinet-level Officials
U.S. Representatives
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local officeholders
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Andrew White
Texas State Representatives
Local officeholders
Individuals
  • Michael Cooper, pastor and candidate for the 2018 Lieutenant Governor Democratic nomination[92]
Organizations
Newspapers

First round

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adrian
Ocegueda
Jeffrey
Payne
Lupe
Valdez
Tom
Wakely
Andrew
White
Grady
Yarbrough
Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 5.7% 6% 1% 12% 2% 17% 1% 6%[104] 54%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 5% 5% 43% 7% 24% 7% 8%[105]

Results

Initial primary results by county:
  Cedric Davis
  Jeffrey Payne
  Lupe Valdez
  Tom Wakely
  Andrew White
  Grady Yarbrough
  Tie
Democratic primary results[106]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Lupe Valdez 436,666 42.89%
Democratic Andrew White 278,708 27.37%
Democratic Cedric Davis, Sr. 83,938 8.24%
Democratic Grady Yarbrough 54,660 5.36%
Democratic Jeffrey Payne 48,407 4.75%
Democratic Adrian Ocegueda 44,825 4.4%
Democratic Tom Wakely 34,889 3.42%
Democratic James Clark 21,945 2.15%
Democratic Joe Mumbach 13,921 1.36%
Total votes 1,017,959 100% +463,945
Turnout 6.67%[22] +2.6%[22]

Runoff

Runoff results by county:
  Valdez—>90%
  Valdez—80–90%
  Valdez—70–80%
  Valdez—60–70%
  Valdez—50–60%
  Tie
  White—50–60%
  White—60–70%
  White—70–80%
  White—80–90%
  White—>90%
  No vote

Lupe Valdez and Andrew White proceeded to a run-off on May 22 since neither received 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary.[3] Lupe Valdez won the runoff narrowly.[107]

Results

Democratic primary runoff results[108]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Lupe Valdez 227,577 53.1
Democratic Andrew White 201,356 46.9
Total votes 432,180 100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Defeated at Convention

  • Kathie Glass, attorney and previous nominee[110]
  • Patrick Smith[109]
  • Kory Watkins, activist[111]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Greg Abbott (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide officeholders
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local officeholders
Individuals
Organizations
Lupe Valdez (D)
U.S. Cabinet and Cabinet-level Officials
U.S. Representatives
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local officeholders
Individuals
Organizations
Mark Tippetts (L)
Governors
Individuals

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[164] Solid R August 7, 2017
Rothenberg Political Report[165] Solid R November 10, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[166] Safe R November 14, 2017
RealClearPolitics[167] Safe R October 9, 2018
Daily Kos[168] Safe R June 5, 2018
Fox News[169][lower-alpha 1] Likely R October 9, 2018
Politico[170] Solid R October 9, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Lupe
Valdez (D)
Mark
Tippetts (L)
Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 57% 35% 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 58% 38% 0% 4%
Emerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 53% 33% 3% 11%
Epstein Group September 15–24, 2018 1,200 ± 2.9% 58% 29% 3% 10%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 55% 45%
Quinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 58% 39% 0% 3%
Ipsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 2% 6%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 52% 39%
Dixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 53% 34% 1% 12%
Emerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 48% 28% 3% 20%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 56% 37% <1% 6%
Quinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 51% 38% 1% 9%
Texas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 47% 31% 1% 22%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 25% 3% 28%
Gravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 41% 8%
University of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 44% 32% 4% 4% 16%
Quinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 53% 34% 1% 9%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 48% 36% 16%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 49% 40% 0% 9%

Results

Texas gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent)
Democratic Lupe Valdez
Libertarian Mark Tippetts
Majority
Turnout

References

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  63. @GiffordsCourage (May 8, 2018). ".As the former Dallas County Sheriff, @LupeValdez knows the danger of letting guns fall into the wrong hands. She will be a Governor who protects 2nd amendment rights while fighting for gun safety laws, and we are proud to endorse her. giffords.org/2018/05/valdez/ #VoteCourage" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  97. @randrewwhite (April 19, 2018). "Honored to receive the Gun-Sense Candidate distinction from @MomsDemand. I believe, as they do, that we can fully support the 2nd Amendment while supporting common-sense gun legislation that reduces death & injury from gun violence in our state & country. #GunReformNow #DoRightTX" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  105. Cedric Davis 4%, Joe Mumbach 3%, James Clark 1%
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  112. Christi Craddick [@ChristiCraddick] (March 16, 2018). "Calling all Texas Republican women. #KeepTexasRed @TexasGOP @TFRW" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  114. {{cite tweet |user=MattShaheen |number=1036701006212595712 |date=September 3, 2018 |title=WHuge Collin County GOP Labor Day Rally! So many fired up about Keeping Texas Red to continue our growing prosperity and high quality of life!! #VoteGOP #HD66 @GregAbbott_TX @VanTaylorTX @KenPaxtonTX @AngelaPaxtonTX @candynoble @Scott_SanfordTX @leachfortexas @justinaholland
  115. 1 2 3 4 5 6 @AngelaPaxtonTX (March 20, 2018). "What a wonderful event today in Frisco hosted by Jerry Jones for @GregAbbott_TX. So good to see so many friends. Thank you Bobby and Phyllis Ray for inviting me as your guest. @leachfortexas @MattShaheen @candynoble @Scott_SanfordTX @SenBobHall @KonniBurton" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  116. 1 2 3 4 5 @MattRinaldiTX (May 5, 2018). "What enthusiasm gap? Great crowd at @DallasGOP block walk w/ @GregAbbott_TX @DonHuffines @LindaKoopHD102 @AngieChenButton @lisalubyryan. #txlege #KeepTexasRed" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  117. {{cite tweet |user=VanTaylorTX |number=1037347903440871424 |date=September 5, 2018 |title=America as #1. Republican policies are driving economic success. Proud to work w @GregAbbott_TX @leachfortexas @Scott_SanfordTX @CandyNobleHD89 forTexas and Collin County.
  118. {{cite tweet |user=MattShaheen |number=1036701006212595712 |date=September 3, 2018 |title=WHuge Collin County GOP Labor Day Rally! So many fired up about Keeping Texas Red to continue our growing prosperity and high quality of life!! #VoteGOP #HD66 @GregAbbott_TX @VanTaylorTX @KenPaxtonTX @AngelaPaxtonTX @candynoble @Scott_SanfordTX @leachfortexas @justinaholland
  119. Crossroads Today (May 5, 2018). "Gov. Greg Abbott to kick off statewide Block Walking Event". Retrieved May 5, 2018.
  120. @glennbeck (May 27, 2018). "@GregAbbott_TX is the best governor I have ever had the honor to watch. Soro's is pouring millions into Texas to turn it blue. Only TWO counties are keeping Texas Red. It is that close. #wakeuptexans I pray for the Gov to remain strong, decent and in office" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  121. @AbbottCampaign (April 11, 2018). ".@GregAbbott_TX: ".@GregAbbott_TX: "I am proud to receive the endorsement of the Associated Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors of Texas PAC. They understand the importance of fostering successful small businesses & economic achievements through low taxes & reasonable regulations."" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  122. @AbbottCampaign (April 6, 2018). ".@GregAbbott_TX: .@GregAbbott_TX: "I am proud to receive the endorsement of the Rural Friends of Electric Cooperatives PAC, an organization that works diligently to provide energy resources to rural Texans and businesses."" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  123. @AbbottCampaign (April 18, 2018). ".@GregAbbott_TX: "I look forward to working with the Texas Agricultural Aviation Association and others over the next four years as we bring even more innovation to Texas' thriving agricultural industry."" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  124. @AbbottCampaign (May 3, 2018). ".@GregAbbott_TX: ".@GregAbbott_TX: "I am honored to receive the endorsement of the Texas Hospital Association's political action committee, and I am excited to work with them to strengthen our hospitals and health systems and provide even greater care to the people of Texas.""" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  125. @AbbottCampaign (April 25, 2018). ".@GregAbbott_TX: ".@GregAbbott_TX: "I am honored to receive the endorsement of the Texas Pyrotechnic Association PAC, an organization that epitomizes the powerful force of small businesses in our great state."" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  126. Lauren McGaughy (July 27, 2018). "Largest police group in Texas endorses Greg Abbott over former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez". The Dallas Morning News.
  127. "WATCH: NFIB Texas PAC Endorses Governor Abbott for Second Term". NFIB. July 12, 2018.
  128. David Tarrant (September 20, 2018). "Dallas sheriff's association endorses Gov. Greg Abbott over their former boss, Lupe Valdez". DallasNews.com.
  129. @LupeValdez (May 10, 2018). ".Honored to have your support, @JulianCastro! This year we have an opportunity to find a path for all Texans to succeed, invest in our public schools, and push back against hate! #VamosValdez" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  130. @TomPerez (May 24, 2018). ".Representation matters and we are working hard to elect Democratic candidates in every ZIP code and up and down the ballot who look like the people they serve. ¡Adelante, @LupeValdez!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  131. @Castro4Congress (February 24, 2018). ".@LupeValdez has spent her entire life fighting for Texans. That's what we need and deserve from our next Texas Governor" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  132. @GiffordsCourage (May 8, 2018). ".As the former Dallas County Sheriff, @LupeValdez knows the danger of letting guns fall into the wrong hands. She will be a Governor who protects 2nd amendment rights while fighting for gun safety laws, and we are proud to endorse her. giffords.org/2018/05/valdez/ #VoteCourage" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  133. @sethmoulton (September 20, 2018). "I am proud to endorse a new group of @serve_america candidates who will put public service before personal gain. They are ready to bring a new generation of leadership to Washington and to state capitals across the country! I hope you will join me in supporting their campaigns" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  134. @WendyDavis (May 22, 2018). "Congratulations @LupeValdez!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  135. @LupeValdez (March 20, 2018). "Thank you @SenatorSylvia for your support! Grateful for the endorsement, amiga. #txlege" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  136. @Menendez4Texas (February 26, 2018). "Please take a minute to watch my friend's and Gubernatorial candidate, Lupe Valdez's, video narrated by @JohnLeguizamo" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  137. Mary Tuma (March 2, 2018). "Election Notes More news from the campaign trail". Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  138. "Lupe Valdez Grassroots Fundraiser hosted by Anchia and Friends". January 11, 2018. Retrieved January 14, 2018.
  139. Stephen Young (January 16, 2018). "Initial Fundraising Numbers Show Lupe Valdez Campaign Way Behind". Retrieved January 20, 2018.
  140. @GinaForAustin (February 27, 2018). "If you have a moment, this short video about Sheriff Lupe Valdez who is running for Governor is worth the watch. I am proud to be supporting a candidate who represents the best of who we are" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  141. @JohnsonforTexas (May 31, 2018). "Great to spend time with my fellow @dallasdemocrats, especially my wife @FemmeNakita and the next Governor of Texas, @LupeValdez! #JohnsonJordan18 #txlege" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  142. @ChrisGTurner (May 22, 2018). "Congratulations to @LupeValdez on winning the Democratic nomination for #TXgov. And thank you to @randrewwhite for the race you ran. Onward to November! #txlege" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  143. "Enjoyed meeting with elected officials and community leaders in Willacy County. Thanks to Raymondville Mayor Gilbert Gonzales for being a wonderful host today!". February 20, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  144. Peggy Fikac (February 11, 2018). "Dallas County judge backing Lupe Valdez for governor". Retrieved February 12, 2018.
  145. "With my good friend Sheriff Omar Lucio on a beautiful South Texas Sunday afternoon. Glad to have his support in Cameron County as we bring back common sense to Texas". January 14, 2018. Retrieved January 14, 2018.
  146. "Wonderful turnout at our meet-and-greet in El Paso last night. Thanks to Sheriff Richard Wiles for hosting us!". February 19, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  147. @JohnLeguizamo (March 11, 2018). "Flip it blue #Texas! I know you can! @LupeValdez @MALDEF @LULAC @HispChamberCCC @HispanicArts @HispanicCaucus @LatinosMatter @Latina @NBCLatino @latinovictoryus @RockTheVote" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  148. @CollierforTexas (May 22, 2018). "Congratulations to @LupeValdez for winning the Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas. I look forward to working with Sheriff Valdez to help make a better state for ALL Texans" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  149. @DianeRavitch (March 8, 2018). "I support Lupe Valdez. Since I can't vote for (I live in NY, but born in Texas), I sent money. Time to change Texas!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  150. "Lupe Valdez Speaks to Her Win as Democratic Nominee for Texas Governor". MSNBC. May 28, 2018. Retrieved May 28, 2018.
  151. W. Gardner Selby (May 15, 2018). "Did Cecile Richards say there's room in 'her movement' for people who think abortion is wrong?". PolitiFact. Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  152. @GeorgeTakei (May 23, 2018). "Congratulations to @LupeValdez, who won her primary for governor of Texas and is pretty much Trump's worst nightmare: a lesbian, Latina former sheriff—in short, the progressive answer to bigot and pardoned felon Joe Arpaio. Give her a follow, friends. #BlueWave" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  153. @randrewwhite (May 22, 2018). "Congratulations to @LupeValdez for winning the Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas. She has my endorsement and my support. Let's #DoRightTX and win in November!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  154. Mike Ward (January 22, 2018). "AFL-CIO political arm endorses Lupe Valdez". Retrieved January 30, 2018.
  155. @AnniesListTX (May 23, 2018). "Annie's List is pleased to announce our endorsement of @LupeValdez for Governor, @joifortexas for Comptroller and @KimOlson4TxAg for Commissioner of Agriculture. We are excited for their campaigns and believe these women truly represent the future of Texas!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  156. @TexasEquityPAC (April 10, 2018). "The @TexasEquityPAC , the political action committee of @EqualityTexas endorses Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate @LupeValdez for the May 22, 2018 runoff elections. www.texasequitypac.org" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  157. @HRC (September 7, 2018). ".@HRC is proud to endorse @LupeValdez for governor of Texas. She is the first out #LGBTQ Latina candidate in the nation to win a major party's nomination for governor. #VamosValdez #TXGov #TXLege www.hrc.org/blog/hrc-endorses-lupe-valdez-in-her-historic-bid-for-governor-of-texas …" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  158. "For decades, millions of Texans, including women and their families, have come to rely on Planned Parenthood for critical healthcare services. Planned Parenthood has stood strong defending Texas women's rights. I'm honored to stand with them and have their endorsement". February 5, 2018. Retrieved February 5, 2018.
  159. @Mark4Gov (May 24, 2018). "It was great to receive an endorsement from @GovGaryJohnson recently. He has also agreed to serve as a policy adviser on my campaign - thank you Gary! Check out the rest of my team at mark4gov.com/?page_id=12" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  160. @GovBillWeld (August 25, 2018). "Mark Tippetts is a business leader, father of four, and understands the issues facing Texans today. He knows what it takes to create jobs, keep government out of the way, and defend our freedoms. He will make a great Governor. I proudly endorse @Mark4Gov for Governor of Texas" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  161. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=262264531255514&id=147953389353296
  162. 1 2 "My Team". Mark Tippets Campaign. Retrieved June 18, 2018.
  163. @Mark4Gov (July 13, 2018). "IWith @nsarwark, the chair of the Libertarian National Party. #LetMarkDebate #EndTwoPartyRule" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  164. "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  165. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  166. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  167. "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  168. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  169. "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  170. "Politico Predicts". Politico.
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