United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)

 
Nominee Joe Donnelly Mike Braun Lucy Brenton
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Incumbent U.S. Senator

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana will take place on November 6, 2018 concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly is running for reelection to a second term.[1] He will face the nominee of the Republican Party, businessman and former State Representative Mike Braun, in the general election.

Politico has described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[2] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[3]

Background

Donnelly holds a 47% to 26% approval rating among his constituents,[4] in a state Donald Trump carried with about 56.5% to about 37.5% for Democrat Hillary Clinton.[5][6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements

Joe Donnelly
U.S. Vice Presidents
United States Senators
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100.0
Total votes 284,621 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Mike Braun
U.S. Senators
State Senators
State Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Luke Messer
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Todd Rokita
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Luke
Messer		 Todd
Rokita		 Mike
Braun		 Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% 44% – –
Gravis Marketing April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% 26% – 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% 24% 9% – 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% 28% – – 51%
14% 21% 11% – 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.2
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 30.0
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.8
Total votes 506,700 100.0

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • James Johnson, Jr.[59]

General election

Candidates

  • Mike Braun, businessman and former State Representative (R)
  • Lucy Brenton (L)
  • Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
  • James Johnson, Jr. (I)

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[60] Tossup September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[61] Tossup September 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Tossup September 6, 2018
Daily Kos[63] Tossup September 17, 2018
Fox News[64] Tossup September 19, 2018
CNN[65] Tossup September 15, 2018
RealClearPolitics[66] Tossup September 13, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D) $11,546,044 $5,248,546 $6,391,931
Mike Braun (R) $8,451,782 $7,380,326 $1,071,454
Source: Federal Election Commission[67]

Endorsements

Mike Braun (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Joe Donnelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
  • Indiana Chamber of Commerce[96]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Mike
Braun (R)		 Lucy
Brenton (L)		 Other Undecided
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
Marist College August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
49% 43% – 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
48% 42% – 2% 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% 51% 39% – – 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% 49% – – 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 47% – – 7%

Results

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent)
Republican Mike Braun
Libertarian Lucy Brenton
Majority
Turnout

Notes

  1. ↑ Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References

  1. 1 2 Bottorff, Kathy (January 7, 2017). "Hanscom to Manage Sen. Donnelly Reelect". WTCA. Retrieved January 21, 2017.
  2. ↑ Strauss, Daniel (August 14, 2017). "Missouri's $10M man". Politico. Archived from the original on May 9, 2018. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  3. ↑ "United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  4. ↑ Yokley, Eli (October 31, 2017). "America's Most and Least Popular Senators — Q3 2017 Rankings". Morning Consult. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  5. ↑ "Indiana Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 1, 2017.
  6. ↑ "Secretary of State : Election Division: Election Results". www.in.gov.
  7. ↑ "VOTE MARTIN DEL RIO - committee overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov. Retrieved 2017-10-25.
  8. ↑ "Democrat ends US Senate bid - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". www.journalgazette.net.
  9. 1 2 "Vice President Joe Biden to join Sen. Joe Donnelly campaign fundraiser on Feb. 9".
  10. 1 2 "Joe Biden headed to Indianapolis in February for Donnelly fundraiser". 26 January 2018.
  11. 1 2 Staten, Adam (26 January 2018). "Donnelly fundraiser to bring former Vice President Joe Biden to Indy".
  12. 1 2 Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Donnelly.
  13. 1 2 "End Citizens United on Twitter". Twitter.
  14. 1 2 "US Senator". Indiana Elections Division. Retrieved July 3, 2018.
  15. ↑ Grant, Mike (August 2, 2017). "Braun set for U.S. Senate run". Washington Times-Herald. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  16. ↑ Pathé, Simone; Pathé, Simone (6 November 2017). "Businessman Makes Indiana Senate Primary Three-Person Race" – via www.rollcall.com.
  17. ↑ Pathé, Simone (26 July 2017). "Indiana Rep. Luke Messer Running for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  18. 1 2 Railey, Kimberly (January 31, 2017). "In light of @SusanWBrooks passing on #insen". Twitter. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  19. 1 2 Groppe, Maureen (January 31, 2017). "Brooks won't challenge Donnelly for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
  20. ↑ "The Latest: Rokita to Formally Announce Indiana Senate Bid". The New York Times. Associated Press. August 8, 2017. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  21. ↑ Pathe, Simone (March 23, 2017). "Indiana Headed for Another Member-on-Member Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved March 24, 2017.
  22. ↑ "Rep. Brooks endorses Messer for Senate - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". www.journalgazette.net.
  23. 1 2 Howey, Brian A. (August 10, 2017). "Rokita announces with Delph support" (PDF). Howey Politics. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  24. ↑ Colwell, Jack (November 27, 2016). "Here's how big Walorski's win was". South Bend Tribune. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  25. ↑ Pathé, Simone (November 28, 2016). "Republican Gender Gap Could Grow in the House". Roll Call. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  26. ↑ Hudson, Melissa. "Jackie Walorski files for re-election". ABC 57 News. Retrieved 7 February 2018.
  27. ↑ Colombo, Hayleigh (April 8, 2017). "Republicans jockey to take on Donnelly in 2018". Indianapolis Business Journal. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  28. ↑ Francisco, Brian (November 13, 2017). "Henderson quits U.S. Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  29. ↑ "MIKE BRAUN EARNS KEY ENDORSEMENT". City-County Observer. February 8, 2018.
  30. ↑ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul. "Horning for Senate". IndyPolitics.org. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
  31. ↑ "5 area state legislators facing primary challengers - Local politics - Journal Gazette". www.journalgazette.net.
  32. ↑ Myers, George (February 1, 2017). "Kokomo lawyer Mark Hurt announces US Senate bid". News and Tribune. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  33. ↑ Tribune, George Myers Kokomo. "Kokomo attorney Hurt, citing FedEx troubles and relocating residents, falls short of required signatures for candidacy".
  34. ↑ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  35. ↑ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  36. ↑ "Purdue Polytechnic director Andrew".
  37. ↑ "Andrew Takami on Twitter". Twitter.
  38. ↑ "Messer Endorsed By Former Senate Candidate Andrew Takami". Luke Messer for Senate. April 9, 2018.
  39. 1 2 "Tom Coburn endorses Mike Braun in Indiana Senate race". The Washington Times.
  40. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mike Braun. "I'm proud to announce that my campaign has been endorsed by State Rep. Chris Judy, State Rep. John Young, State Rep. Bob Morris, State Rep. Ron Bacon, State Rep. Chris May, and State Senator Liz Brown. With momentum gaining across the state I'm proud to be endorsed by some of Indiana's best leaders". Facebook.
  41. 1 2 "Citizens Fund Endorses Mike Braun for Senate in Indiana". Tea Party Patriots. May 1, 2018.
  42. 1 2 EDITORIAL (April 29, 2018). "Braun choice in GOP's Senate field". The Journal Gazette.
  43. ↑ Pathé, Simone; Pathé, Simone (20 September 2017). "Susan Brooks Chooses Sides in Indiana Senate Primary" – via www.rollcall.com.
  44. 1 2 3 "Allen County State Legislators Endorse Luke Messer". Luke Messer for Senate. January 5, 2018.
  45. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Luke Messer Receives Tidal Wave of Support from Hamilton County Leaders". Luke Messer for Senate. December 7, 2017.
  46. ↑ Matt McKinney (August 10, 2017). "Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore David Long endorses Luke Messer for U.S. Senate". theindychannel.com.
  47. ↑ "Messer Gains Endorsement from Southwest Indiana State Rep". Luke Messer for Senate. March 8, 2018.
  48. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Luke Messer Announces Six More Endorsements - Luke Messer". www.lukemesser.com.
  49. ↑ Brian Francisco (August 22, 2017). "Donnelly says focus is on helping Hoosiers". The Journal Gazette.
  50. ↑ "Todd Rokita on Twitter".
  51. ↑ "Todd Rokita on Twitter".
  52. ↑ "Todd Rokita on Twitter".
  53. ↑ Todd Rokita. "Chairman Jeff Cardwell has been a selfless leader for Hoosier Republicans. I'm honored to have his endorsement". Twitter.
  54. ↑ "Leaders of Trump's Indiana Campaign Boost Rokita - Todd Rokita". 28 July 2017.
  55. ↑ "Todd Rokita on Twitter".
  56. ↑ "Todd Rokita on Twitter".
  57. ↑ Ken de la Bastide (November 25, 2017). "Willis endorses Rokita in Senate race". The Herald Bulletin.
  58. ↑ EDITORIAL (May 7, 2018). "EDITORIAL: We endorse Rokita for Senate GOP nod". The Times of Northwest Indiana.
  59. ↑ "Candidate list" (PDF). www.in.gov.
  60. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  61. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  62. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  63. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  64. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  65. ↑ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  66. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  67. ↑ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  68. ↑ "George W. Bush to fundraise for GOP candidates". Politico. September 12, 2018.
  69. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "Will be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana's next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!". Twitter.
  70. ↑ Mike Pence. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on his #INSen primary victory tonight! @RealDonaldTrump & I look forward to working with you in support of the #MAGA agenda. Mike Braun will make Hoosiers proud". Twitter.
  71. ↑ https://twitter.com/indgop/status/1042056948202594304
  72. ↑ Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
  73. ↑ Todd Young. "Congrats to Mike Braun on tonight's victory! Help keep the momentum going by following @braun4indiana for updates from the campaign trail". Twitter.
  74. ↑ Jim Banks. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on your victory this evening. Team Banks looks forward to working with you to give Indiana another reliable conservative voice in the U.S. Senate in November!". Twitter.
  75. ↑ https://www.abc57.com/news/republicans-rally-around-mike-braun-at-state-convention
  76. ↑ Eric Holcomb. "Hoosiers need someone who will support the kinds of things that have made Indiana a leading state for job creation, financial strength & stability, & workforce development. I believe that @braun4indiana is the right person to ensure our principles are pushed hard in Washington". Twitter.
  77. ↑ https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1045710163397791744
  78. ↑ Lou Holtz (August 16, 2018). "Braun brings best to boost Hoosiers". The Journal Gazette.
  79. ↑ Donald Trump, Jr. (August 29, 2018). "Donald Trump Jr.: Hoosiers deserve better than Donnelly". Evansville Courier & Press.
  80. ↑ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Braun in Indiana Senate Race". FreedomWorks. June 4, 2018.
  81. ↑ "Indiana Right to Life PAC Endorses in Federal Races". Indiana Right to Life. April 3, 2018.
  82. ↑ "Small Business Endorses Mike Braun for U.S. Senate". NFIB. September 4, 2018.
  83. ↑ "Pro-Life Group Endorses Mike Braun Over Pro-Abortion Joe Donnelly in Indiana Senate Race". LifeNews.com. July 12, 2018.
  84. ↑ "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
  85. ↑ Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
  86. ↑ Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
  87. ↑ Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
  88. ↑ https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/kamala-harris-is-trying-to-help-joe-donnelly-raise-money-off-his-vote-against-kavanaugh
  89. ↑ John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
  90. ↑ https://twitter.com/tommcdermottjr/status/1050132330084519942
  91. ↑ https://twitter.com/VicOladipo/status/1050915058061139968
  92. ↑ https://twitter.com/KevinWTHR/status/1050885559953121280
  93. ↑ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
  94. ↑ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
  95. ↑ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
  96. ↑ "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". 1 September 2018.
Debates
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