United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018

United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018

November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)

Arizona's nine seats in the United States House of Representatives

  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 5 4

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona will be held on November 6, 2018, to elect the nine U.S. Representatives from the state of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincide with the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

District 1

The 1st district is home to the Grand Canyon and stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Marana. This district has a significant Native-American population, making up 25% of the population in the district. Also this district is home to many Indian reservations such as: the Gila River Indian Community, Hopi Reservation, and the Navajo Nation. Incumbent Democratic Congressman Tom O'Halleran, won election to his first term in 2016 with 50.90 percent of the vote over Republican sheriff Paul Babeu.[1] This district is one of the most competitive in the state with a PVI of R+2. This is one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates
Withdrew
  • Miguel Olivas[4]

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom O'Halleran (incumbent) 64,114 100.0
Total votes 64,114 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Wendy
Rogers
Tiffany
Shedd
Steve
Smith
Other Undecided
Grassroots Partners (R-Smith) July 15–16, 2018 393 ± 4.6% 23% 15% 27%
Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC) June 28–30, 2018 450 ± 4.59% 22% 15% 10% 3% 50%

Endorsements

Steve Smith
Individuals
Groups

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Wendy Rogers 30,180 43.74
Republican Steve Smith 25,552 37.04
Republican Tiffany Shedd 13,260 19.22
Total votes 68,992 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
O'Halleran (D)
Wendy
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) October 9–10, 2018 943 ± 3.0% 38% 44% 18%
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) September 27–28, 2018 738 ± 4.0% 36% 39% 24%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Likely D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[25] Lean D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Likely D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[27] Likely D September 28, 2018
Fox News[28] Lean D September 21, 2018
CNN[29] Lean D October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[30] Lean D September 21, 2018
The New York Times[31] Likely D September 26, 2018
Politico[32] Lean D September 21, 2018

Results

Arizona's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom O'Halleran (incumbent)
Republican Wendy Rogers
Independent David Shock (write-in)
Total votes

District 2

The 2nd district is based in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County, and parts of suburban Tucson. Incumbent Republican Martha McSally was reelected to a second term in 2016, defeating Democratic opponent Matt Heinz by a margin of 57 to 43 percent in the general election.[33] This is one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[34]

Democratic primary

Candidates
Withdrew
Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Friese
Matt
Heinz
Ann
Kirkpatrick
Billy
Kovacs
Mary
Matiella
Bruce
Wheeler
Other Undecided
FM3 Research (D-Heinz) August 1–2, 2018 402 ± 4.9% 31% 26% 13% 29%
FM3 Research (D-Heinz) April 29 – May 3, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 27% 23% 4% 6% 4% 36%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) May 5–7, 2017 392 ± 5.0% 6% 40% 30% 24%

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 33,938 41.85
Democratic Matt Heinz 23,992 29.59
Democratic Mary Matiella 7,606 9.38
Democratic Bruce Wheeler 6,814 8.40
Democratic Billy Kovacs 5,350 6.60
Democratic Barbara Sherry 2,074 2.56
Democratic Yahya Yuksel 1,319 1.63
Total votes 81,093 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lea Márquez Peterson 23,571 34.15
Republican Brandon Martin 19,809 28.70
Republican Casey Welch 14,499 21.01
Republican Daniel Morales 11,135 16.13
Total votes 69,014 99.99

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lea
Marquez-Peterson (R)
Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)
Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 26 – October 1, 2018 502 ± 4.5% 39% 50% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) February 8–10, 2018 841 ± 3.4% 34% 43%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Lean D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[25] Tilt D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Lean D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[51] Lean D September 28, 2018
Fox News[28] Lean D September 21, 2018
CNN[29] Lean D October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[30] Lean D September 21, 2018
The New York Times[31] Lean D September 26, 2018
Politico[32] Toss-up September 21, 2018

Results

Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick
Republican Lea Márquez Peterson
Republican Melissa Grable (write-in)
Independent Jordan Flayer (write-in)
Total votes

District 3

The third district is based in Tucson and stretches along the southern border of Arizona including Yuma, rural portions of Maricopa County such as Gila Bend, and the western suburbs of Phoenix including Avondale, Buckeye, Goodyear, and parts of Litchfield Park. Raúl Grijalva has represented this district since 2002, and ran unopposed in 2016.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 45,186 99.82
Total votes 45,186 99.82

Republican primary

Candidates
Withdrew
  • Bill Abatecola, businessmen (endorsed Arellano).[53]

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican J. Nicholas Pierson 13,090 49.87
Republican Sergio Arellano 7,400 28.19
Republican Edna San Miguel 5,756 21.93
Total votes 26,246 99.99

General election

Results

Arizona's 3rd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent)
Republican Nicolas Pierson
Total votes

District 4

The fourth district takes up most of rural northwestern and western Arizona and includes Kingman, Lake Havasu City, Prescott, and San Tan Valley. This is the most Republican district in Arizona with a PVI of R+21. Republican Paul Gosar was reelected to a fourth term in 2016 with 71% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Brill 19,048 52.40
Democratic Delina Disanto 17,256 47.47
Total votes 36,304 99.87

Republican primary

Candidates

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar (incumbent) 94,092 100.00
Total votes 94,092 100.00

Green primary

Candidates
  • Haryaksha Gregor Knauer[3]

Primary results

Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Haryaksha Gregor Knauer 323 100.00
Total votes 323 100.00

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Paul
Gosar (R)
David
Brill (D)
Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 25, 2018 370 ± 5.09% 57% 25% 2%[55] 16%

Results

Arizona's 4th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Brill
Republican Paul Gosar (incumbent)
Green Haryaksha Gregor Knauer
Total votes

District 5

The 5th district is based in the East Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes Gilbert and Queen Creek, as well as portions of Chandler and Mesa. Republican Andy Biggs was elected to his first term in 2016 with 64% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joan Greene 27,222 59.32
Democratic Jose Torres 18,671 40.68
Total votes 45,893 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent) 86,418 100.00
Total votes 86,418 100.00

General election

Results

Arizona's 5th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joan Greene
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent)
Total votes

District 6

The sixth district is based in northeastern suburban Phoenix and is centered around Scottsdale, and also includes many affluent communities such as Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. Incumbent Republican Congressman David Schweikert was re-elected to a third term in 2016 with 62.23% of the vote. This is one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[34]

Democratic primary

Candidates
  • Anita Malik,[3] tech executive
  • Garrick McFadden,[3] attorney
  • Heather Ross,[3] nurse practitioner

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Anita Malik 22,666 42.21
Democratic Heather Ross 20,203 37.63
Democratic Garrick McFadden 10,825 20.16
Total votes 53,694 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent) 83,406 100.00
Total votes 83,406 100.00

General election

Results

Arizona's 6th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Anita Malik
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent)
Total votes

District 7

The seventh district is based in the city of Phoenix and also includes parts of Glendale and Tolleson. This is the most Democratic district in Arizona with a PVI of D+23. Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego was elected to a second term in 2016 with 75.12% of the vote.[1] No Republican candidate is running.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego (incumbent) 32,231 74.80
Democratic Catherine Miranda 10,856 25.20
Total votes 43,087 100.00

General election

Results

Arizona's 7th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego (incumbent)
Green Gary Swing
Republican James "007" Bond IV (write-in)
Total votes

District 8

The eighth district is based in the West Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes the cities of El Mirage, Peoria, and Surprise, and also many retirement communities such as Sun City. Republican Congressman Trent Franks represented the district from 2003 to 2017, and he was re-elected in 2016 with 68.66% of the vote.[1] Franks resigned from Congress on December 8, 2017 after a controversy regarding surrogate mothers.[58] Debbie Lesko won the special election that took place on April 24, 2018, with 52.6% of the vote. She will run for election to a full term.[59] Tipirneni, who was unsuccessful in her attempt in the special election as the Democratic nominee, will challenge Lesko once again in the general election.

Democratic primary

Candidates
Removed from the ballot
Declined
  • Brianna Westbrook, political activist, Arizona LGBTQ community leader[63] (Running for Arizona state senate)
  • Robert Kyle Schuster[64][65]

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 52,215 100.00
Total votes 52,215 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates
Declined

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Lesko (incumbent) 73,776 77.17
Republican Sandra E. Dowling 21,825 22.83
Total votes 96,601 100.00

Independent candidates

Not on the ballot

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Lesko (R)
Hiral
Tipirneni (D)
Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) September 24–26, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 48% 44% 8%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) August 7–13, 2018 400 49% 40% 10%

Results

Arizona's 8th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni
Republican Debbie Lesko (incumbent)
New Paradigm Party Steven Hummel (write-in)
Total votes

District 9

The ninth district is based in suburban Phoenix and is centered around Tempe, and also includes portions of Chandler, Mesa, and Scottsdale. This district is moderately competitive with a PVI of D+4. Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema was re-elected to a third term in 2016 with 60.89% of the vote.[1] However, she is running for Senate in 2018 for U.S. Senator Jeff Flake's seat. This is one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates
Not on the ballot
  • Talia Fuentes,[3] 2016 Democratic nominee for the 5th district[72]
Declined

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton 59,066 100.00
Total votes 59,066 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates
  • Irina Baroness von Behr,[3] pilot, 2016 Tempe City Council candidate[74]
  • Steve Ferrara,[3] retired Navy Chief Medical Officer.[75]
  • David Giles,[3] 2016 Republican nominee[76]
Declined

Endorsements

Steve Ferrara
Groups
  • National Republican Congressional Committee[78]

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Ferrara 31,006 59.92
Republican David Giles 16,722 32.31
Republican Irina Baroness von Behr 4,020 7.77
Total votes 51,748 100.00

Libertarian primary

Candidates
On The Ballot

General election

Results

Arizona's 9th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton
Republican Steve Ferrara
Total votes

References

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  4. https://www.pinalcentral.com/casa_grande_dispatch/area_news/cd-ld-candidates-withdraw-from-races-after-court-challenges/article_3481a809-03d4-5159-b3e0-a01bd7880506.html
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  12. 1 2 "House Freedom Caucus Co-Founders Proudly Endorse Steve Smith for Congress". Steve Smith for Congress. July 20, 2018.
  13. "Congresswoman Debbie Lesko Endorses Steve Smith for Arizona's First Congressional District". Steve Smith for Congress. May 9, 2018.
  14. "Former Congressman Barry Goldwater Jr. Endorses Steve Smith for Congress". Steve Smith for Congress. May 11, 2018.
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  18. "Conservative Talk Show Host Josh Bernstein Endorses Steve Smith for Congress". Steve Smith for Congress. July 9, 2018.
  19. David Bossie. "Along with Citizens United Political Victory Fund I'm proud to endorse full spectrum conservative @senstevesmith for Congress in AZ-1! Steve will come to Congress to support @realDonaldTrump America First agenda - build wall, cut taxes/red tape, take on failed DC status quo". Twitter.
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  34. 1 2 http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/MEMO-Charging-Forward-DCCC-Announces-Battlefield-Expansion-18.pdf
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  39. Ferguson, Joe (June 29, 2017). "Democrat Bruce Wheeler jumps into Congressional District 2 race". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved June 30, 2017.
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  53. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2016-11-10. Retrieved 2016-11-07.
  54. https://ballotpedia.org/Paul_Gosar
  55. Haryaksha Gregor Knauer (G) with 2%
  56. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2018#cite_note-9
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  58. Bade, Rachel; Sherman, Jake (December 8, 2017). "Female aides said Franks suggested intercourse to impregnate them". Politico. Washington, D.C. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  59. Bowman, Bridget (April 25, 2018). "Republican Debbie Lesko Wins Arizona Special Election". Roll Call. Retrieved 2018-05-27.
  60. "Glendale doctor enters race for Arizona's 8th Congressional District". KTAR. July 19, 2017. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
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  78. Bowman, Bridget (October 26, 2017). "NRCC Announces First 'On the Radar' Young Guns for 2018". Roll Call. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Official campaign websites for third district candidates
Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates
Official campaign websites for fifth district candidates
Official campaign websites for sixth district candidates
Official campaign websites for seventh district candidates
Official campaign websites of eighth district candidates
Official campaign websites of ninth district candidates
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