2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for reelection to a second term. It was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, as well as various other state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

November 6, 2018
Turnout64.85%[1]
 
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 50.0% 47.6%

County results

Sinema:      50–60%      60–70%

McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

The candidate filing deadline was May 30, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 28, 2018. Martha McSally won the Republican Party primary, and Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic Party primary. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot but withdrew and endorsed Sinema.[2] This election featured an all-female ballot for U.S. Senator, with three women on the ballot. Write-in candidates included Democrat Sheila Bilyeu, Libertarian Party candidate Barry Hess, Republican Robert Kay, and Jonathan Ringham of The Old Republic, among others.[3] On the night of the election, McSally held a narrow lead of about one percent. But about a million mail-in and early ballots had to be counted, and Sinema took the lead the next day. The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[4] and McSally conceded that day.[5]

Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988 when former Democratic senator Dennis DeConcini last ran for and won reelection to his third and final term in this seat. McSally was appointed to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, which was being held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl following the death of Senator John McCain.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state has remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[6] The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[7] Flake had said in March 2017 that he was running for reelection, but he was considered vulnerable due to low approval ratings, a tenuous relationship with President Trump, and a primary challenge from former State Senator Kelli Ward. Additionally, his margin of victory in 2012 was only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[8][9][10]

Republican primary

U.S. Congresswoman Martha McSally at the launch of her Senatorial bid in January 2018.
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018.

Candidates

On the ballot

Not on the ballot

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally
Federal officials
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Mayors
Individuals
  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale City Councilwoman[47]
Organizations
Kelli Ward
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
U.S. Military Personnel
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Arpaio
Martha
McSally
Kelli
Ward
Other Undecided
Data Orbital August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% 47% 27% 12%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% 35% 27% 23%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% 36% 27% 14%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% 32% 19% 7%[73] 23%
Data Orbital June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% 39% 25% 22%
Remington (R-McSally) May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% 42% 23% 10%
Magellan Strategies (R) April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% 36% 15%
Data Orbital January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% 31% 19% 27%
OH Predictive Insights January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% 31% 25% 15%
WPA Intelligence (R-McSally) November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 36% 26%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% 34% 42% 24%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% 21% 32% 15%[74] 34%

Results

Results by county:
  McSally—60–70%
  McSally—50–60%
  McSally—40–50%
  McSally—30–40%
  Arpaio—30–40%
Republican primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.57%
Republican Kelli Ward 180,926 27.61%
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,555 17.79%
Write-in 191 0.03%
Total votes 655,298 100%

Democratic primary

U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018.
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017.

Candidates

On the ballot

Not on the ballot

Failed to file

[14]

Withdrew

  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[83][84]

Declined

Endorsements

Deedra Abboud
Organizations
Kyrsten Sinema
Vice Presidents
  • Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States and former U.S. Senator (D-DE)[99]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deedra
Abboud
Kyrsten
Sinema
Other Undecided
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% 51% 12%[146] 30%

Results

Results by county:
  Sinema—80–90%
  Sinema—70–80%
  Sinema—60–70%
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25%
Democratic Deedra Abboud 105,800 20.75%
Total votes 509,970 100%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Results

Results by county:
  Green—100%
  No votes
Green primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100%
Total votes 389 100%

General election

Debates

Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[150] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[151] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[152] Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN[153] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[154] Tossup October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[155] Lean D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[156] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[157] Tossup October 30, 2018

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[201]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Martha
McSally (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (D)
Angela
Green (G)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% 47% 45% 2% 6%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47%
OH Predictive Insights November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% 49% 48% 0% 1%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% 49% 2% 2%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 46%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% 1% 10%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 44%
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 47% 46% 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% 50% 2% 1%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% 52%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 48% 43%
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% 51% 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% 48% 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 4% 5%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% 50% 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% 49% 2% 6%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% 47% 3% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 52% 45% 1% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% 48% 46% 1% 6%
Data Orbital October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 44% 44% 11%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 898 44% 47% 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% 8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% 47% 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 52% 49%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV 41% 47% 11%
610 RV 37% 43% 17%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% 45% 4% 13%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% 48% <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% 47% <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% 50% 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% 48% 1% 6%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% 51% 1% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% 47% 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% 46% 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%
OH Predictive Insights September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 6%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 46% 2%[202] 9%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% 43% 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% 48% 7%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% 40% 9% 20%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 869 LV 37% 45% 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% 41% 8% 14%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 49% 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% 51% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% 46% 13%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% 33% 37%

Results

Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[203]

CountySinema%Sinema VotesMcSally%McSally VotesOther%Other Votes
Apache64.97%16,29831.13%7,8103.90%979
Cochise38.16%17,38359.12%26,9292.72%1,237
Coconino61.94%34,24034.82%19,2493.24%1,791
Gila37.28%7,64359.42%12,1803.30%676
Graham31.76%3,36864.77%6,8703.47%368
Greenlee40.59%1,04255.16%1,4164.25%109
La Paz31.72%1,60964.36%3,2653.92%199
Maricopa50.96%732,76146.77%672,5052.27%32,686
Mohave26.88%19,21470.25%50,2092.86%2,046
Navajo45.37%16,62451.22%18,7673.41%1,249
Pima56.65%221,24241.11%160,5502.25%8,776
Pinal42.93%50,39554.33%63,7822.74%3,218
Santa Cruz68.51%9,24128.38%3,8283.11%419
Yavapai37.10%40,16060.27%65,3082.68%2,900
Yuma45.42%19,88051.48%22,5323.10%1,355

[204]

Sinema defeated McSally largely by winning in heavily populated Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, which used to be a Republican stronghold but has since trended more Democratic in recent years. Sinema also won in heavily populated Pima County, home to Tucson, where she beat McSally with over 56% of the vote. Sinema also performed well in Coconino County, home of Flagstaff. McSally did do well in many rural areas of the state. This is the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.76%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,200 47.61% -1.62%
Green Angela Green 57,442 2.41% N/A
Write-in 566 0.02 N/A
Total votes 2,384,308 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Voter Demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Sinema McSally No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 47
Women 51 47 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 57 39 4 17
40–49 years old 50 48 2 17
50–64 years old 44 55 1 29
65 and older 51 48 1 29
Race
White 45 53 2 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 68 30 2 18
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race and Gender
White men 42 55 3 34
White women 47 52 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 66 32 2 9
Latina women 70 28 2 9
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 50 46 4 25
Some college education 45 54 1 28
Associate Degree 43 53 4 10
Bachelor's Degree 52 47 3 23
Advanced degree 62 37 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 55 45 N/A 27
White no college degree 39 58 3 48
Non-white college graduates 72 27 1 9
Non-white no college degree 65 33 2 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 56 44 N/A 15
White women without college degrees 42 56 2 26
White men with college degrees 53 47 N/A 12
White men without college degrees 35 61 4 22
Non-whites 68 31 1 25
Military service
Veteran 38 59 3 14
Non-veteran 54 45 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 62 34 4 15
$30,000-$49,999 63 36 1 18
$50,000-$99,999 48 49 3 33
$100,000-$199,999 41 58 1 24
Over $200,000 44 56 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 32
Republicans 12 86 2 38
Independents 50 47 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 6 N/A 14
Democratic women 99 1 N/A 17
Republican men 6 91 3 15
Republican women 16 83 1 23
Independent men 50 47 3 18
Independent women 50 47 3 13
Ideology
Liberals 94 6 N/A 22
Moderates 63 35 2 38
Conservatives 14 84 2 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 44 3 15
No 48 50 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 77 20 3 42
Immigration 16 83 1 31
Economy 39 60 1 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 60 39 1 43
Suburban 44 54 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 6
Source: CNN[205]

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat, left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself was appointed after the death of John McCain. Initially, Kyl said that he would serve only until the new Congress was sworn in January 2019.[206] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019, marking the first time in history that Arizona will be represented by two women in the United States Senate and making it the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of Senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the prior year; a first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996-1997.[207] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected. Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment is only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress and a special election for her seat will be held in November 2020 to determine who will finish what remains of McCain's term (which expires in 2023).[208]

References

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