Virginia gubernatorial election, 2009

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2009
November 3, 2009
Turnout 40.4% (of registered voters)[1]

 
Nominee Bob McDonnell Creigh Deeds
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,163,523 818,909
Percentage 58.6% 41.3%
Virginia gubernatorial election results map.
Red denotes counties/districts won by McDonnell.
Blue denotes those won by Deeds.
Governor before election

Tim Kaine
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Bob McDonnell
Republican

The Virginia gubernatorial election of 2009 took place in Virginia on November 3, 2009. The incumbent Governor, Democrat Tim Kaine, was not eligible to run due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution, though others in the state's executive branch were not restricted. (Virginia is the only state that prohibits a Governor from serving consecutive terms.) The election elected Republican Bob McDonnell as the next Governor, re-elected Bill Bolling as Lieutenant Governor, and elected Ken Cuccinelli as the next Attorney General of Virginia. The winners were inaugurated on January 16, 2010, and were scheduled to serve until January 11, 2014.

State Senator Creigh Deeds was selected as the Democratic nominee, having defeated former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian Moran in the Democratic primary election.[2][3] This was the first contested Democratic primary in two decades.[4] Republican nominee McDonnell, a former state Attorney General, was selected at his party's nominating convention.[5]

McDonnell's 59% to 41% victory over Deeds is the most recent statewide election in Virginia won by a Republican.

Democratic candidates

State Senator Creigh Deeds, who ran for Attorney General of Virginia in 2005, announced on December 13, 2007, that he would run for the Democratic nomination. State Delegate Brian Moran, brother of Congressman Jim Moran, joined Deeds on January 4, 2008, when he established a political action committee. Additionally, McLean resident Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and chairman of Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign announced on January 3, 2009, that he was running.[2] The Democratic primary, which took place on June 9, 2009, was the first contested in over twenty years.[4]

Republican candidate

Attorney General Bob McDonnell first announced his intention to run at American Legion's Boy's State of Virginia 2007. This is the sixth consecutive Virginian gubernatorial election in which an Attorney General has run. McDonnell was the only Republican candidate to file with the election board before the November 2008 deadline. As a result, there was no Republican Party primary. McDonnell accepted the Republican nomination at a state convention on May 30, 2009, in Richmond.[6] Chairman of the Republican National Committee Michael Steele had said that the election for governor of Virginia is one of the most important elections for the Republican Party.[7]

Democratic primary

Sign outside Alexandria City Hall, indicating the nearest polling place

The Democratic primary campaign for governor unofficially began in December 2007 when State Senator Creigh Deeds announced his candidacy for governor. He was joined one month later by State Delegate Brian Moran. For the following year (before McAuliffe indicated his intentions to run), Deeds and Moran squared off picking up endorsements, and raising money.

Moran received many endorsements from members of the State Democratic Party as well as the mayors of the Hampton Roads area. Deeds picked up support from Northern and Western Virginia, such as the endorsement from U.S. Congressman Rick Boucher. The area of strength for Deeds was concentrated in Western and Southern Virginia, and the area of strength for Moran consisted mostly of Eastern Virginia with both reaching out to Northern Virginian voters.`

The race was close from the beginning, with McAuliffe considered to be a semi "front-runner" due to his lead in the polls and big campaign war chest. However, in the last few weeks of the race, Deeds began to surge up in the polls. By election night, June 9, Deeds swept to victory. Creigh Deeds spent $14.49 for each vote on the Democratic primary election. Terry McAuliffe spent $68.25 for each vote on the Democratic primary election.[8]

Endorsements

Several endorsements were given in the Democratic primary:

Endorsements for Creigh Deeds
Endorsements for Terry McAuliffe
Endorsements for Brian Moran

Fundraising

Fundraising totals through June 30, 2009, from the Virginia Public Access Project.

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Creigh Deeds $6,207,528 $3,486,179 $2,721,350
Terry McAuliffe $8,250,507 $8,250,205 $304
Bob McDonnell $73,981 $3,360 $920,623
Brian Moran $4,057,882 $4,034,070 $23,816

Polling

Source Dates Administered Terry McAuliffe Brian Moran Creigh Deeds
Survey USA June 8 30% 21% 42%
Public Policy Polling June 6–7 26% 24% 40%
Suffolk University June 4 20% 20% 27%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 June 1–3 26% 27% 30%
Survey USA May 31 – June 2 35% 26% 29%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31 24% 22% 27%
Public Policy Polling May 19–21, 2009 29% 20% 20%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 May 18–20, 2009 36% 22% 13%
Survey USA May 17–19, 2009 37% 22% 26%
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2009 30% 20% 14%
Survey USA April 25–27, 2009 38% 22% 22%
Research 2000 April 6–8, 2009 19% 24% 16%
Public Policy Polling March 27–29, 2009 18% 22% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 28 – March 1, 2009 21% 19% 14%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2009 18% 18% 11%

Election results

Results of the Democratic primaries
  Counties and independent cities won by Creigh Deeds
  Counties and independent cities won by Terry McAuliffe
  Counties and independent cities won by Brian Moran
Democratic Primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Creigh Deeds 158,845 49.77
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 84,387 26.44
Democratic Brian Moran 75,936 23.79
Total votes 319,168 100.00

General election

Deeds and McDonnell both ran for Attorney General of Virginia in 2005. McDonnell won by just over 300 votes, in the same election in which Tim Kaine was elected Governor with 52% of the vote.

The main themes of the election were the economy, transportation, and jobs.

The first debate was in Hot Springs, Virginia on July 25.[33]

Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Deeds in Henrico County, Virginia, a suburb of Richmond, Virginia on July 16.[34] Also attending were Richmond Mayor Dwight Clinton Jones, state Senator A. Donald McEachin (D-Henrico), and Virginia first lady Anne Holton.[35]

On August 6, President Barack Obama and Governor Tim Kaine campaigned for Deeds in McLean, Virginia.[36]

Deeds is from Bath County, Virginia, a rural area of less than 5,000 people, where John McCain received over 55% of the vote. McDonnell is from Virginia Beach, which McCain won with 49.9%.[37]

Fundraising

Candidate General Elec. Raised Total Raised
R Creigh Deeds (Democrat) $10,057,402 $16,264,930
Robert F McDonnell (Republican) $21,466,436 $21,466,436

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid R[38] October 29, 2009
Rothenberg Safe R[39] October 28, 2009
Swing State Project Safe R
RealClearPolitics Likely R[40] October 29, 2009
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R[41] October 28, 2009
CQ Politics Likely R[42] October 29, 2009

Polling

Deeds (D) vs. McDonnell (R)

Source Dates Administered Creigh Deeds (D) Bob McDonnell (R)
SurveyUSA October 30 – November 1, 2009 40% 58%
Public Policy Polling November 1, 2009 42% 56%
Mason-Dixon/Richmond Times-Dispatch October 28–29, 2009 41% 53%
Research 2000 October 26–28, 2009 44% 54%
Center for Community Research October 21–27, 2009 36% 53%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2009 41% 54%
SurveyUSA October 25–26, 2009 41% 58%
Public Policy Polling October 23–26, 2009 40% 55%
The Washington Post October 22–25, 2009 44% 55%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 21–25, 2009 36% 54%
SurveyUSA October 17–19, 2009 40% 59%
Public Policy Polling October 16–19, 2009 40% 52%
Clarus Research October 18–19, 2009 41% 49%
CNU-Pilot-WVEC October 19, 2009 31% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2009 43% 50%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2009 40% 48%
The Washington Post October 4–7, 2009 44% 53%
Survey USA October 2–4, 2009 43% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2009 42% 51%
Survey USA September 26–28, 2009 41% 55%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2009 43% 48%
Insider Advantage September 23, 2009 44% 48%
The Washington Post September 20, 2009 47% 51%
Research 2000 September 14–16, 2009 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2009 46% 48%
Clarus Research Group September 16, 2009 37% 42%
Survey USA September 3, 2009 42% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2009 42% 51%
Public Policy Polling August 28–31, 2009 42% 49%
Washington Post August 16, 2009 40% 47%
Rasmussen Reports August 10, 2009 38% 47%
Research 2000 August 3–5, 2009 43% 51%
Public Policy Polling July 31 – August 3, 2009 37% 51%
Survey USA July 27–28, 2009 40% 55%
Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2009 41% 44%
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 2, 2009 43% 49%
Research 2000 June 15–17, 2009 44% 45%
ALR June 10–14, 2009 42% 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009 47% 41%
Pre-primary hypotheticals
Source Dates Administered Creigh Deeds (D) Bob McDonnell (R)
Survey USA June 5 – 7, 2009 43% 47%
Survey USA May 31 – June 2, 2009 43% 44%
Research 2000 May 18–20, 2009 32% 45%
Survey USA May 17–19, 2009 40% 46%
Survey USA April 27, 2009 39% 44%
Rasmussen Reports April 15, 2009 30% 45%
Research 2000 April 6–8, 2009 31% 38%
Rasmussen Reports February 4, 2009 30% 39%
Rasmussen Reports December 4, 2008 39% 39%
Public Policy Polling June 14–16, 2008 27% 32%

Pre-primary hypotheticals

Source Dates Administered Brian Moran (D) Bob McDonnell (R)
Survey USA May 31 – June 2, 2009 37% 48%
Research 2000 May 18–20, 2009 35% 42%
Survey USA May 19, 2009 37% 47%
Survey USA April 27, 2009 34% 46%
Rasmussen Reports April 15, 2009 34% 44%
Research 2000 April 8, 2009 36% 37%
Rasmussen Reports February 4, 2009 36% 39%
Rasmussen Reports December 4, 2008 41% 37%
Public Policy Polling June 14–16, 2008 27% 33%
Source Dates Administered Terry McAuliffe (D) Bob McDonnell (R)
Survey USA May 31 – June 2, 2009 40% 47%
Research 2000 May 18–20, 2009 34% 44%
Survey USA May 19, 2009 40% 46%
Survey USA April 27, 2009 39% 46%
Rasmussen Reports April 15, 2009 33% 45%
Research 2000 April 8, 2009 33% 40%
Rasmussen Reports February 4, 2009 35% 42%
Rasmussen Reports December 4, 2008 36% 41%

Results

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2009[43][44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Bob McDonnell 1,163,651 58.61% +12.62%
Democratic Creigh Deeds 818,950 41.25% -10.47%
Write-ins 2,502 0.12%
Majority 344,701 17.36% +11.63%
Turnout 1,985,103 42%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also

References

  1. ↑ Virginia Department of Elections (2016). "Registration/Turnout Statistics". The Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved July 25, 2016.
  2. 1 2 Gardner, Amy (January 3, 2009). "Former DNC Chairman McAuliffe Announces Run for Va. Governor". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 3, 2009.
  3. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 18, 2009. Retrieved June 15, 2009.
  4. 1 2 Kumar, Anita (December 2, 2008). "Gubernatorial Candidates Square Off". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 2, 2008.
  5. ↑ Kumar, Anita (November 8, 2008). "Clear Path to Governor's Race". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 6, 2008.
  6. ↑ Kumar, Anita (May 31, 2009). "McDonnell Officially Accepts GOP Nomination". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
  7. ↑ "Steele Focused on 3 Critical Races in Rebuilding GOP". Fox News. January 31, 2009.
  8. ↑ "Big winner had the smallest budget - Richmond BizSense". June 16, 2009.
  9. ↑ "Deeds: Race 'Wide Open'". March 7, 2009.
  10. ↑ "Mayor Brown Endorses Deeds For Governor". December 18, 2007. Archived from the original on July 23, 2011.
  11. ↑ The Roanoke Times (December 17, 2008). "U.S. Rep. Boucher endorses Creigh Deeds for Governor". Archived from the original on September 17, 2012.
  12. ↑ "Petersburg officials endorse Moran". The Washington Post. February 11, 2009. Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  13. ↑ Chap Petersen (March 26, 2009). "Post Article on Senator Deeds". Archived from the original on March 25, 2010. Retrieved March 30, 2009.
  14. ↑ NewsVirginian.com (December 9, 2008). "Creigh Deeds piles stack of endorsements".
  15. ↑ Deeds for Virginia (March 16, 2009). "Senator Phil Puckett Endorses Creigh Deeds in Bristol". Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  16. ↑ Richmond Times Dispatch (January 7, 2009). "Moran, Deeds, get N.Va. Noda". Archived from the original on September 13, 2012. Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  17. ↑ Deeds for Virginia (June 26, 2008). "Mary Margaret Whipple: I'm with Deeds". Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  18. 1 2 RasingKaine.com (July 7, 2008). "Creigh Deeds Picks Up Another Big Endorsement". Archived from the original on December 18, 2010.
  19. ↑ "Creigh Deeds for Democratic Candidate for Governor". The Washington Post. May 22, 2009. Retrieved May 25, 2009.
  20. ↑ IAFF (September 15, 2009). "Virginia Fire Fighters Endorse Creigh Deeds for Governor". Retrieved November 2, 2009.
  21. 1 2 3 Craig, Tim (March 16, 2009). "Endorsements for Deeds, McAuliffe". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 14, 2009.
  22. ↑ Hamby, Peter (May 14, 2009). "Bill Clinton: Terry McAuliffe 'born to lead' Virginia". CNN. Retrieved May 14, 2009.
  23. ↑ Craig, Tim (November 18, 2008). "Kaine's Biggest Donor Endorses McAuliffe". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 18, 2008.
  24. ↑ "YouTube". www.youtube.com.
  25. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (June 4, 2009). "Schweitzer To Endorse McAuliffe". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 6, 2009.
  26. ↑ Guthrie, Lisa (May 6, 2009). "Virginia League of Conservation Voters Endorses in Democratic Primary" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 17, 2009. Retrieved May 26, 2009.
  27. ↑ Giroux, Greg (June 8, 2009). "Virginia's Democratic Gubernatorial Hopefuls: Terry McAuliffe". Congressional Quarterly. Retrieved June 8, 2009.
  28. 1 2 Giroux, Greg (June 8, 2009). "Virginia's Democratic Gubernatorial Hopefuls: Brian Moran". Congressional Quarterly. Archived from the original on July 1, 2009. Retrieved June 8, 2009.
  29. 1 2 3 4 5 AlexandriaNews.org (December 17, 2008). "Hampton Roads Mayors Back Moran To Chief: Five Endorsing Democratic Mayors Collectively Represent 1.1 Million Virginians".
  30. ↑ "Richmond mayor endorses Moran for Virginia governor". CNN. January 28, 2009. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  31. ↑ VivianPaige. "Moran announces DPVA steering committee endorsements".
  32. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 12, 2012. Retrieved July 29, 2013.
  33. ↑ "Photos From the Debate". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  34. ↑ STAFF, POLITICO. "VP jokes while touting Deeds - POLITICO 44". www.politico.com.
  35. ↑ http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/BIDE17S_20090716-223408/280515/%5Bpermanent+dead+link%5D
  36. ↑ "deedsforvirginia.com". www.deedsforvirginia.com.
  37. ↑ Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  38. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  39. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  40. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  41. ↑ "2010 Governor Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  42. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  43. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on January 18, 2012. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  44. ↑ "Historic turnout for 2013 Virginia governor's race". November 6, 2013.
Candidates
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