2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
November 6, 2018
Turnout56.72%
 
Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,214,478 1,938,818
Percentage 52.3% 45.8%
County Results

Stabenow:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

James:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elections in Michigan

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.50% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew
  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
Individuals

Results
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (Incumbent) 1,045,450 100%
Total votes 1,045,450 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary
  • Sandy Pensler, businessman and candidate for MI-08 in 1992[17][16]

Failed to qualify
  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[18][16]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements
John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Notable Figures

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[70]

Polling
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Sandy
Pensler		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 518,564 54.67%
Republican Sandy Pensler 429,885 45.32%
Write-in 57 <0.01%
Total votes 948,506 100%

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared
  • Marcia Squier, Green nominee for MI-14 in 2016[71]

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D) $17,449,325.17 $15,720,981.25 $2,842,613.58
John James (R) $9,838,137.84 $7,953,403.16 $1,884,735.02
Source: Federal Election Commission[74]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[75] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[76] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Safe D November 5, 2018
CNN[78] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[80][lower-alpha 1] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Individuals
John James (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling










Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 49% 46% 1% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 1,817 ± 2.3% 53% 44% 1% 2%
Mitchell Research November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 53% 46% 0% 1%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 880 – 49% 47% 3%[97] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 52% 36% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 764 ± 3.6% 54% 41% – 6%
Glengariff Group October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 36% 3%[98] 8%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 52% 43% 1% 4%
Mitchell Research October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 52% 46% 0% 2%
Target-Insyght October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 53% 43% 4%[99] 1%
EPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% 5% 4%
The Tarrance Group (R-James) October 20–22, 2018 605 ± 4.1% 48% 41% 4% 7%
Michigan State University October 13–22, 2018 169 – 49% 42% – –
Marketing Resource Group October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 37% – 5%
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 8%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 35% 3% 10%
EPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 5% 6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 55% 40% – –
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 54% 41% – 5%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 53% 35% – 11%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 2% 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 51% 35% – 14%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 2% 13%
The Tarrance Group (R-James) August 11–14, 2018 602 ± 4.1% 49% 38% 3% 9%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%

Results

While Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[100] While James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats.

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018 [101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (Incumbent) 2,214,478 52.26% -6.54%
Republican John James 1,938,818 45.76% +7.78%
Green Marcia Squier 40,204 0.95% +0.35%
Taxpayers George Huffman III 27,251 0.65% +0.09%
Natural Law John Howard Wilhelm 16,502 0.39% +0.15%
Write-in 18 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 4,237,271 100% N/A
Democratic hold

References
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  27. Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and an African American leader..." Twitter.
  28. Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  29. Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
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  37. John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
  38. "30 Conservative Republicans from the Michigan Legislature Endorse John James for Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-06-12. Retrieved 2018-05-30.
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  42. "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
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  81. Debbie Stabenow. "Thanks @BarackObama! #MiSen #MadeInMichigan". Twitter.
  82. Joe Biden. "This Thursday evening I'll be in Lansing, Michigan to support @ElissaSlotkin, Debbie @Stabenow, @GretchenWhitmer and @Garlin". Twitter.
  83. Gary Peters. "I can't think of anyone who works harder or cares more deeply about her state than @Stabenow. I would know: I've seen her focus, hard-work & effectiveness up close in the Senate. I can't wait to vote for my good friend. Read about why I'm supporting her". Twitter.
  84. Dan Kildee. "We deserve leaders who understand that a strong middle class means a strong country. We deserve leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare and expand access to affordable health care. That's why we deserve @GretchenWhitmer, @Stabenow & Democrats up and down the ballot". Twitter.
  85. Brenda Lawrence. "Attended four churches in Pontiac today with our United States Senator Debbie @Stabenow, my mentor and dear friend. I am so excited to vote for her November 6th and I hope you join me! #TeamBrenda #PrayersUp @TeamStabenow". Twitter.
  86. Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
  87. "Debbie Stabenow – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
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  89. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". 16 July 2012.
  90. "Michigan – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  91. Rudy Giuliani. "Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He's the future of our party. Let's make that future now.. Vote for Don James". Twitter.
  92. Rudy Giuliani. "Sorry for the mistake with JOHN JAMES first name but you'd be making one if you don't elect him to Senate from Michigan.The tweet was not planned but spontaneous.I saw his interview and record-military, business-and said this is a true leader,not the same old. He's exceptional". Twitter.
  93. Levin, Mark R. (30 October 2018). "John James for Senate in Michigan".
  94. Peterson, Jordan B. (11 October 2018). "I met John James in New York and he is one impressive character: a truly powerful, direct speaker @JohnJamesMI".
  95. "James would bring fresh perspective to Senate for Michigan". Iron Mountain Daily News. October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  96. "James the right choice for Senate". Daily Press. October 29, 2018.
  97. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  98. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
  99. Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  100. Weigel, David (1 November 2018). "The Trailer: Why Michigan's Senate candidate is asking Trump for an election eve visit". Fred Ryan. Retrieved 15 April 2019.
  101. "2018 Michigan general election results". Retrieved 12 Jun 2019.
Official campaign websites
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